"We are in the midst of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order."
Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. INDOPACOM, says China is the "only state with both the intent & the power to do so."
Eye-opening speech—I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
Paparo says the world is increasingly descending into chaos & disorder as China & Russia represent a pacing challenge to our security, freedom, & well-being.
"From Europe to the Middle East to the Pacific, we're seeing significant shifts in state behaviors & they are not random."
Beware a land power that turns to the sea...
"Today, in the Indo-Pacific, the PRC has turned to the sea. In its threats to Taiwan across the strait, in the South China Sea, & the East China Sea, it makes expansive & unlawful claims to waters & to features."
"A look at its maps & a passing familiarity with the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea exposes the absurdity of its claims & its pretzel logic.
The PRC's words & deeds are revanchist, revisionist, & expansionist." 🎯
Paparo explains that a key asymmetric advantage for the U.S. is our alliances & partnerships.
Naval power is a "consistent theme" & U.S. Navy is "no longer in a supporting role to events ashore, but in operational environments where the maritime domain is the locus of conflict."
"We are in the middle of another epochal change & that is the dawn of the information revolution."
Whoever competes best in this, adapts better, is able to combine data, computing power, & AI—& who can win the first battle (likely in space, cyber, & info domain)—shall prevail.
The Admiral stresses the importance of closing the kill chain effectively & efficiently to achieve decision superiority...
"The ability to see, understand, decide, & act more accurately, more focused, & faster than the adversary. This is the first & the most decisive battle."
"If we are doing our jobs, we will deter that war by building & demonstrating combat power. There's no bluffing it.
And if we do our jobs right—history will never know our names. & this is the goal: to deter, to prevail, who learns, adapts faster, survives & thrives."
Solid List to follow if you’re interested in this stuff:
“We are living in consequential times, a period of intense competition & high stakes.”
“We cannot normalize this intentional malign behavior by the PRC, which we see in the form of territorial aggression against its neighbors, including unprofessional & unsafe behavior at sea.”
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Many Middle East developments over the past week as the U.S. military buildup continues:
- Additional strike assets en route (F-35As in Rota, EA-18Gs in CENTCOM)
- NSA Bahrain cleared out: all forward-deployed ships (LCS, USCG) got underway
- Deploying THAAD battery + Patriots
- Movement at Diego Garcia
- RC-135 Rivet Joint operating out of KSA
- ABECSG on station in the northern Arabian Sea
- Iran cancels naval drills following CENTCOM warning
More info and sources (recommend following) below.
Air assets: @DEFENCEGEEK, @ARMCHAIRADML, @THEINTELFROG, @VCDGF555, @STEFFANWATKINS
With help from @SCHIZOINTEL, @LATAMMILMVMTS, @MT_ANDERSON, @EZEGSM3, @MERCOGLIANOS,@SA_DEFENSA, @__CJOHNSTON__, @BYCHRISGORDON
Base map: @RHODESMAPS
Created by @iejmedia. Subscribe for access to database and interactive fleet tracker.
Previous EUCOM-CENTCOM update for reference:
Last week, USAF tankers dragged 6x VTANG F-35As and 6x USN EA-18Gs across the Atlantic to bases in Europe. The 158 Fighter Wing and Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 132 were both forward deployed to Puerto Rico supporting SOUTHCOM ops.
The U.S. military is rapidly expanding its footprint in the Middle East, moving additional fighter aircraft, ships, air defense, and support assets into the region.
- The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is in the Indian Ocean and will soon enter the U.S. 5th Fleet/Central Command AOR
- Three F-15E Strike Eagle squadrons now forward deployed
- Increased KC-135 and C-17 flights supporting the buildup
- Patriot and THAAD air defense systems reportedly en route
Snapshot ahead of Abe’s arrival in theater:
Tap and hold to load/save in 4K. Track the entire Navy fleet at @iejmedia.
If you’re interested in this stuff, I suggest following @TheIntelFrog, @Schizointel, @LATAMMILMVMTS, @MT_Anderson, @mercoglianos, @vcdgf555, @SA_Defensa, @__CJohnston__, @DefenceGeek, @ByChrisGordon, @sentdefender, @ezegsm3, @EndGameWW3, @steffanwatkins
“A dozen F-15Es assigned to the 494th Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath, U.K., departed on Jan. 18, headed towards the Middle East, supported by KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft, according to flight tracking data.
U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the region, confirmed the squadron’s presence in the Middle East with an official photo posted on social media Jan. 20. C-17 Globemaster III cargo aircraft have also flown from Britain to the Middle East on missions that appear to be supporting the fighter squadron’s deployment.
…
With the addition of another F-15E squadron, the U.S. now has three Strike Eagle squadrons known to be deployed to the region, according to open-source flight tracking data and recent official U.S. military imagery.
The F-15E squadrons that were already deployed to the Middle East are from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C., and Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons and A-10 Thunderbolt II attack planes are also known to be deployed to the region.”
@ByChrisGordon @ASForcesMag
During the darkest hours of 2 and 3 January, the U.S. conducted operation “Absolute Resolve,” a discreet, precise mission to apprehend Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.
The special operations extraction force, escorted by a U.S. Navy, Marine, and Air Force protection package, arrived in downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise, successfully took Maduro into custody, and exfiltrated safely.
A comprehensive review of everything we know to date:
w/ @SA_Defensa, @LatAmMilMVMTs, @__CJohnston__
At 22:46 EST on 2 January 2026, after "patiently waiting for the right triggers to be met... the weather broke just enough" and POTUS ordered the U.S. military to move forward with operation “Absolute Resolve.”
“Over the course of the night, aircraft began launching from 20 different bases, on land and sea, across the Western Hemisphere. In total, more than 150 aircraft, bombers, fighters, intel, recon, and rotary wing aircraft were in the air.”
The 150+ aircraft worked in “close coordination, all coming together... to layer effects for a single purpose: to get an interdiction force into downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise.”
As the operation began, the helicopters with the extraction force, which included law enforcement officers, took off and began their flight into Venezuela at 100 feet above the water. “As they approached Venezuelan shores, the U.S. began layering different effects provided by SPACECOM, CYBERCOM, and other members of the interagency to create a pathway.”
Overhead, the extraction forces were protected by aircraft from the U.S. Marines, U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, and the Air National Guard. The protection package included F-22s, F-35As, F-35Bs, F/A-18E/Fs, EA-18Gs, E-2Ds, B-1B bombers, and other support aircraft, as well as numerous remotely piloted drones.
As the package approached Caracas, the joint air component “began dismantling and disabling the air defense systems, employing weapons to ensure the safe passage of the helicopters into the target area.”
Delta Force arrived at Maduro’s compound at 01:01 AM EST (02:01 AM local time) on 3 January and descended into the compound. “While apprehending the indicted persons on arrival into the target area, the helicopters came under fire and they replied with overwhelming force in self-defense.”
Maduro and his wife surrendered and were taken into custody by the Department of Justice, assisted by the U.S. military, with no loss of U.S. life. After securing Maduro, the force began to prepare for departure “Helicopters were called in to exfiltrate the extraction force while fighter aircraft and remotely piloted aircraft provided overhead coverage and suppressive fire. There were multiple self-defense engagements. As the force began to withdraw out of Venezuela, the force successfully exfiltrated and returned to their afloat launch bases, and the force was over the water.”
By 03:29 AM EST, the 160 SOAR MH-47G Chinook transporting the VIP touched down on amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) in the Caribbean Sea. LHD 7, with its air combat element (ACE) practicing agile combat employment (ACE) in Puerto Rico, has served as a mobile hub for special operations forces in USSOUTHCOM.
One helo was hit during the engagement, but remained operational, and all aircraft made it home safely. Source: Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Over the past 48 hours, China surrounded Taiwan and executed large-scale live-fire military exercises featuring simulated decapitation strikes and the seizure of key ports.
“It is a noose-style blockade. The operational scope is no longer limited to symbolic, isolated shows of force, but has evolved into a coordinated and interconnected blockade network, practicing the tactics to choke off the island’s vital supply lines,” the official PLA press account stated bluntly.
With a potential Day 3 on the horizon, here’s everything you might have missed:
For easier viewing, press and hold to load in 4K. Special thanks to @SinoTalk and @songs349.
>>On the morning of 29 December, PLA Eastern Theater Command launched joint military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” and deployed air and naval forces “to approach Taiwan Island in close proximity from different directions”
The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force participated. The stated objectives at the outset included:
- Blockade on key ports and areas
- Seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Joint sea-air combat readiness patrols
- All-dimensional deterrence outside the first island chain (new language)
The PRC designated seven exercise zones in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, southwest, southeast, and east of Taiwan. From 09:00 to 11:00, the PLA established an 8th training area to the east of Taiwan (per @MoNDefense).
As of yesterday, Reuters reports that 90+ Chinese ships are operating in the region - down from 100+ earlier this week - surpassing China's "mass naval deployment in December last year" in the "largest maritime show of force to date."
A high-level visual (notes + sources below):
“The Chinese ships have massed in waters stretching from the southern part of the Yellow Sea through the East China Sea and down into the contested South China Sea, as well as into the Pacific, according to four security officials in the region.
Their accounts were corroborated by intelligence reports from a country in the region, which detailed the deployment. Reuters reviewed the reports on condition it did not name the country.
As of Thursday morning, there are more than 90 Chinese ships operating in the region, coming down from more than 100 at one point earlier this week, the documents showed.
The operations exceed China's mass naval deployment in December last year that prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level, the sources said.”
The Hainan amphibious task group was last spotted ~500nm north of Palau. Australia is closely tracking the ATG but it’s unclear how far south the group will transit. @SinoTalk unpacks why the PLA might conduct a second circumnavigation op and what it would look like: