Ian Ellis Profile picture
Feb 19, 2024 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
"We are in the midst of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order."

Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. INDOPACOM, says China is the "only state with both the intent & the power to do so."

Eye-opening speech—I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
Paparo says the world is increasingly descending into chaos & disorder as China & Russia represent a pacing challenge to our security, freedom, & well-being.

"From Europe to the Middle East to the Pacific, we're seeing significant shifts in state behaviors & they are not random."
Beware a land power that turns to the sea...

"Today, in the Indo-Pacific, the PRC has turned to the sea. In its threats to Taiwan across the strait, in the South China Sea, & the East China Sea, it makes expansive & unlawful claims to waters & to features."
"A look at its maps & a passing familiarity with the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea exposes the absurdity of its claims & its pretzel logic.

The PRC's words & deeds are revanchist, revisionist, & expansionist." 🎯
Paparo explains that a key asymmetric advantage for the U.S. is our alliances & partnerships.

Naval power is a "consistent theme" & U.S. Navy is "no longer in a supporting role to events ashore, but in operational environments where the maritime domain is the locus of conflict."
"We are in the middle of another epochal change & that is the dawn of the information revolution."

Whoever competes best in this, adapts better, is able to combine data, computing power, & AI—& who can win the first battle (likely in space, cyber, & info domain)—shall prevail.
The Admiral stresses the importance of closing the kill chain effectively & efficiently to achieve decision superiority...

"The ability to see, understand, decide, & act more accurately, more focused, & faster than the adversary. This is the first & the most decisive battle."
"If we are doing our jobs, we will deter that war by building & demonstrating combat power. There's no bluffing it.

And if we do our jobs right—history will never know our names. & this is the goal: to deter, to prevail, who learns, adapts faster, survives & thrives."
Solid List to follow if you’re interested in this stuff:

x.com/i/lists/165206…
“We are living in consequential times, a period of intense competition & high stakes.”

“We cannot normalize this intentional malign behavior by the PRC, which we see in the form of territorial aggression against its neighbors, including unprofessional & unsafe behavior at sea.”

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More from @ianellisjones

Jun 22
🚨 U.S. conducts massive precision strikes "obliterating" key Iranian nuclear facilities

- USAF B-2 bombers dropped at least 6x GBU-57 MOP bombs on Fordo
- U.S. Navy guided-missile sub USS Georgia (SSGN 729) fired 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan

What we know: Image
Source: @EricSchmittNYT Image
Update: One B-2 also dropped two bunker busters on Natanz, according to the U.S. official @EricSchmittNYT Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 8
PLA Navy in 2025: More warships, farther than ever before

• 1,350+ Chinese vessels near Taiwan (+26%)
• Liaoning’s longest deployment ever, deep into WESTPAC
• First circumnavigation of Australia
• 20+ joint combat readiness patrols

These deployments demonstrate Beijing's blue water ambitions and the capability to project power outside the first and second island chains, sending a clear message to not only the U.S. and Taiwan but also Australia, Japan, and the Philippines.Image
The Chinese PLA has deployed four big deck warships - two aircraft carriers and two amphibious assault ships - over the last month.

The U.S. Navy is also active in the region:
The Liaoning carrier task group is operating deep in the Western Pacific, more than 2,000 miles (3,200km) from its homeport at Yuchi Naval Base. This represents the PLA's longest carrier deployment on record and the first time deploying beyond the second island chain.
Read 5 tweets
May 2
🚨 China dispatched 546* PLA aircraft around Taiwan in April, the highest monthly total of 2025 & most since August

Nearly 1,800 PLA aircraft have been detected operating nearby year-to-date (+48% yoy), with 1,200+ crossing into Taiwan's ADIZ (+184%)

New heatmap with @OSINTNW: Image
Year-to-date, PLA incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in 2025 continue to run significantly higher than 2023 and 2024. Image
China wasn't fooling around on 1 April when they announced exercise Strait Thunder 2025A, taking advantage of favorable weather conditions to "close in on Taiwan from multiple directions" and execute one of the PLA's largest blockade drills to date. 135 PLA planes were detected over 2 days.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
American strategic bomber fleet out in full force 🇺🇸

• 4x USAF B-1B Lancer bombers deployed to Japan in support of first Bomber Task Force mission, marking a historic visit

• 6x B-2 Spirit stealth bombers forward deployed to Diego Garcia continue strike ops against the Houthi Image
More info on the B-2 bomber deployment:
A Bomber Task Force (BTF) deployment of USAF B-1B Lancer aircraft, Airmen and support equipment from the 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, arrived at Misawa Air Base, Japan, on 15 April. (PACAF) Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 12
New @jointstaffpa map shows the flight paths of Chinese (red) + Russian (yellow) military aircraft operating near Japan, Taiwan, + South Korea in the past year.

Japan scrambled 704 times in response, with two-thirds (464) due to Chinese aircraft. 3x as many PLA drones detected. Image
704 scrambles in FY2024 (1 April to 31 March) is a modest 5% (+35) increase over the prior period. Image
More detail on location and type of aircraft: Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
During exercise Strait Thunder-2025A, the Chinese PLA released several maps and visuals of Taiwan, some marked with target icons and depicting key locations burning and under attack.

Quick compilation (and more info below):
Here’s everything that happened (as it was happening):
Read 4 tweets

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