Ian Ellis Profile picture
Feb 19 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
"We are in the midst of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order."

Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. INDOPACOM, says China is the "only state with both the intent & the power to do so."

Eye-opening speech—I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
Paparo says the world is increasingly descending into chaos & disorder as China & Russia represent a pacing challenge to our security, freedom, & well-being.

"From Europe to the Middle East to the Pacific, we're seeing significant shifts in state behaviors & they are not random."
Beware a land power that turns to the sea...

"Today, in the Indo-Pacific, the PRC has turned to the sea. In its threats to Taiwan across the strait, in the South China Sea, & the East China Sea, it makes expansive & unlawful claims to waters & to features."
"A look at its maps & a passing familiarity with the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea exposes the absurdity of its claims & its pretzel logic.

The PRC's words & deeds are revanchist, revisionist, & expansionist." 🎯
Paparo explains that a key asymmetric advantage for the U.S. is our alliances & partnerships.

Naval power is a "consistent theme" & U.S. Navy is "no longer in a supporting role to events ashore, but in operational environments where the maritime domain is the locus of conflict."
"We are in the middle of another epochal change & that is the dawn of the information revolution."

Whoever competes best in this, adapts better, is able to combine data, computing power, & AI—& who can win the first battle (likely in space, cyber, & info domain)—shall prevail.
The Admiral stresses the importance of closing the kill chain effectively & efficiently to achieve decision superiority...

"The ability to see, understand, decide, & act more accurately, more focused, & faster than the adversary. This is the first & the most decisive battle."
"If we are doing our jobs, we will deter that war by building & demonstrating combat power. There's no bluffing it.

And if we do our jobs right—history will never know our names. & this is the goal: to deter, to prevail, who learns, adapts faster, survives & thrives."
Solid List to follow if you’re interested in this stuff:

x.com/i/lists/165206…
“We are living in consequential times, a period of intense competition & high stakes.”

“We cannot normalize this intentional malign behavior by the PRC, which we see in the form of territorial aggression against its neighbors, including unprofessional & unsafe behavior at sea.”

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More from @ianellisjones

Feb 10
A lot of military activity in the Indo-Pacific:

- Chinese & Russian surface action groups underway east of Taiwan
- U.S. dual carrier operations & exercises with allies
- Unprecedented attack on Taiwan’s sovereignty

Japan: “The situation is extremely serious & unpredictable.” Image
Yesterday, China sent 8 balloons toward Taiwan—the highest daily total ever recorded.

69 balloons have been tracked in 2024, including 20 flights that passed directly over the island—a significant violation of Taiwan’s territory & sovereignty & putting the status quo at risk.
A fleet of Chinese Coast Guard ships recently passed just outside of Japan’s territorial waters, which Beijing also claims, for the 49th day in a row.

“Japan said that it has repeatedly spotted Chinese warships off the coast of Okinawa since the previous week.”
Read 7 tweets
Feb 10
Taiwan detected 8 Chinese balloons over & around its territorial airspace today.

🎈8 sets a new record as the most balloons dispatched in a single day. Image
Taiwan tracked 69 Chinese balloons year-to-date, including 20 direct overflights & more than 30 violations of territorial airspace.
China continues its barrage of balloons violating Taiwan’s territorial airspace.

What’s been happening & why it matters👇
Read 8 tweets
Feb 2
🚨U.S. military strikes in retaliation for a deadly attack on U.S. troops have started in Syria, a U.S. official confirmed to ABC.

Illustrative strike package & thread with live updates: Image
Breaking news from ABC: Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
Heightened Chinese military activity around Taiwan in January:

• 300+ aircraft & 135 warships detected
• Significant attack on Taiwan's sovereignty & airspace with daily violations
• Notice the flight paths cluster around major cities, air & naval bases & red beaches

Quick🧵 Image
Since Taiwan’s election on 13 January, there has been a considerable increase in Chinese PLA military activity around the island.

Starting a new thread below with updates since I posted this 👇
Major military activity is underway in the region across several critical flashpoints:
Read 5 tweets
Jan 28
China likely to demonstrate “force against Taiwan in the near term,” said the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

We could be seeing that now. 10 things you may have missed (as always, from accounts to follow) 👇 Image
“I don't know how you connect those dots, but they're pretty effective in the information space. Doesn't have to be true. They've just got to say it enough times.” —Admiral Acquilino

Below, I try to connect a few dots & shed light on China's military aggression in the region.
Two-thirds of American experts believe that a Taiwan Strait crisis is likely in 2024, according to CSIS.

“In the next couple of years, a blockade or quarantine is more likely than an invasion. That has a lot to do with the capabilities China has. A blockade is more feasible.”
Read 22 tweets
Jan 26
I’m tracking a Russian surface action group/flotilla operating east of Taiwan🧵

Chinese military activity around the island has been elevated over the past few days.

VINSON CSG is underway nearby & carrier USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT is in the Pacific—steaming toward the action. Image
Updates below.
Thread tracking the surge in Chinese military activity over the past few days:
Japan’s Joint Staff Office is tracking 3 Russian warships—most recently operating east of Taiwan as of 26 January. Image
Read 8 tweets

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