"We are in the midst of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order."
Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. INDOPACOM, says China is the "only state with both the intent & the power to do so."
Eye-opening speech—I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
Paparo says the world is increasingly descending into chaos & disorder as China & Russia represent a pacing challenge to our security, freedom, & well-being.
"From Europe to the Middle East to the Pacific, we're seeing significant shifts in state behaviors & they are not random."
Beware a land power that turns to the sea...
"Today, in the Indo-Pacific, the PRC has turned to the sea. In its threats to Taiwan across the strait, in the South China Sea, & the East China Sea, it makes expansive & unlawful claims to waters & to features."
"A look at its maps & a passing familiarity with the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea exposes the absurdity of its claims & its pretzel logic.
The PRC's words & deeds are revanchist, revisionist, & expansionist." 🎯
Paparo explains that a key asymmetric advantage for the U.S. is our alliances & partnerships.
Naval power is a "consistent theme" & U.S. Navy is "no longer in a supporting role to events ashore, but in operational environments where the maritime domain is the locus of conflict."
"We are in the middle of another epochal change & that is the dawn of the information revolution."
Whoever competes best in this, adapts better, is able to combine data, computing power, & AI—& who can win the first battle (likely in space, cyber, & info domain)—shall prevail.
The Admiral stresses the importance of closing the kill chain effectively & efficiently to achieve decision superiority...
"The ability to see, understand, decide, & act more accurately, more focused, & faster than the adversary. This is the first & the most decisive battle."
"If we are doing our jobs, we will deter that war by building & demonstrating combat power. There's no bluffing it.
And if we do our jobs right—history will never know our names. & this is the goal: to deter, to prevail, who learns, adapts faster, survives & thrives."
Solid List to follow if you’re interested in this stuff:
“We are living in consequential times, a period of intense competition & high stakes.”
“We cannot normalize this intentional malign behavior by the PRC, which we see in the form of territorial aggression against its neighbors, including unprofessional & unsafe behavior at sea.”
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- Chinese & Russian surface action groups underway east of Taiwan
- U.S. dual carrier operations & exercises with allies
- Unprecedented attack on Taiwan’s sovereignty
Japan: “The situation is extremely serious & unpredictable.”
Yesterday, China sent 8 balloons toward Taiwan—the highest daily total ever recorded.
69 balloons have been tracked in 2024, including 20 flights that passed directly over the island—a significant violation of Taiwan’s territory & sovereignty & putting the status quo at risk.
Heightened Chinese military activity around Taiwan in January:
• 300+ aircraft & 135 warships detected
• Significant attack on Taiwan's sovereignty & airspace with daily violations
• Notice the flight paths cluster around major cities, air & naval bases & red beaches
Quick🧵
Since Taiwan’s election on 13 January, there has been a considerable increase in Chinese PLA military activity around the island.
Starting a new thread below with updates since I posted this 👇
China likely to demonstrate “force against Taiwan in the near term,” said the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
We could be seeing that now. 10 things you may have missed (as always, from accounts to follow) 👇
“I don't know how you connect those dots, but they're pretty effective in the information space. Doesn't have to be true. They've just got to say it enough times.” —Admiral Acquilino
Below, I try to connect a few dots & shed light on China's military aggression in the region.
Two-thirds of American experts believe that a Taiwan Strait crisis is likely in 2024, according to CSIS.
“In the next couple of years, a blockade or quarantine is more likely than an invasion. That has a lot to do with the capabilities China has. A blockade is more feasible.”