PMC COVID-19 Forecast, Week of Feb 19, 2024
The U.S. is in a prolonged high-transmission COVID surge.
🔹 68 million infections in the U.S. in 2024 (so far)
🔹1.2 million daily infections
🔹2.7% (1 in 38) are actively infectious today
🔹60,000+ resulting #LongCOVID cases/day
Current Levels
Relative to the full pandemic, transmission remains higher today than during about 86% of the pandemic. There is lower transmission than during only 14% of the pandemic.
The Post-Surge Hill
We are in a "post-surge hill" of transmission that is higher than the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th largest waves in the U.S. in its own right. We began forecasting the post-surge hill of transmission 5 weeks ago. Last week, we estimated that the peak transmission day of the hill was Feb 7. That may be true. Biobot's most recent estimate for Feb 14 (labeled on their graph as Feb 17 for the week's end rather than more-correct midpoint) has levels of 929 copies/mL, corresponding to 1.4 million daily infections. The difference between levels for Feb 7 and Feb 14 (and perhaps ultimately Feb 21) are well within the margin of error for their real-time reporting. Note that our estimates for Feb 19 carry forward their values using our forecasting model and suggest marginally lower levels for Feb 19 at 871 copies/mL. The take-home is that we're in extremely high sustained transmission, hopefully plateauing, and with an updated post-surge hill peak transmission date of somewhere between Feb 7 to Feb 21.
Forecast the Next Month
Daily transmission will likely range from 0.5-1.4 millions infections/day over the next month. Expect transmission to fall in half within 4 weeks. Virtually any plausible values entered into the model for next week still suggests a decline in transmission forthcoming. Continued increases in transmission would defy historical patterns of transmission as well as counter the recent leveling off of transmission. Next week, if Biobot reports levels of 1,025-1,100 copies/mL, that would be a very bad sign, model-defying in fact. Nonetheless, if as the models predict, transmission gets down to near 500,000 infections per day in a month, that's still catastrophically high in terms of daily acute illness and resulting long COVID cases of approximately 30,000/day.
Why Is Transmission in Mid-Feb of 2024 Worse Than At This Time Point Any Other Year?
Remember, in the U.S. a year ago, we still had a pandemic emergency declaration. It guided the narrative to take COVID seriously. It offered (too limited but) more testing than today. There was a greater emphasis on vaccination, testing, quarantine, and isolation. There was a push to add more air cleaning, rather than chuck air cleaners. All of this is to say that #PublicHealth is very weak right now, driven too often by extremely short-term financial and political considerations. As someone whose PhD dissertation focused on "delay of gratification" and whose MBA focused on long-term financial analytics, I like to think more in terms of 30-year plans. What we're doing right now is focusing more on quarterly (short-term corporate interests) or 9 month plans (elections). The consequence of laissez-faire public health is 84 consecutive days of >1 million U.S. daily COVID infections.
The U.S. is in a prolonged high-transmission COVID surge.
🔹 68 million infections in the U.S. in 2024 (so far)
🔹1.2 million daily infections
🔹2.7% (1 in 38) are actively infectious today
🔹60,000+ resulting #LongCOVID cases/day
Current Levels
Relative to the full pandemic, transmission remains higher today than during about 86% of the pandemic. There is lower transmission than during only 14% of the pandemic.
The Post-Surge Hill
We are in a "post-surge hill" of transmission that is higher than the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th largest waves in the U.S. in its own right. We began forecasting the post-surge hill of transmission 5 weeks ago. Last week, we estimated that the peak transmission day of the hill was Feb 7. That may be true. Biobot's most recent estimate for Feb 14 (labeled on their graph as Feb 17 for the week's end rather than more-correct midpoint) has levels of 929 copies/mL, corresponding to 1.4 million daily infections. The difference between levels for Feb 7 and Feb 14 (and perhaps ultimately Feb 21) are well within the margin of error for their real-time reporting. Note that our estimates for Feb 19 carry forward their values using our forecasting model and suggest marginally lower levels for Feb 19 at 871 copies/mL. The take-home is that we're in extremely high sustained transmission, hopefully plateauing, and with an updated post-surge hill peak transmission date of somewhere between Feb 7 to Feb 21.
Forecast the Next Month
Daily transmission will likely range from 0.5-1.4 millions infections/day over the next month. Expect transmission to fall in half within 4 weeks. Virtually any plausible values entered into the model for next week still suggests a decline in transmission forthcoming. Continued increases in transmission would defy historical patterns of transmission as well as counter the recent leveling off of transmission. Next week, if Biobot reports levels of 1,025-1,100 copies/mL, that would be a very bad sign, model-defying in fact. Nonetheless, if as the models predict, transmission gets down to near 500,000 infections per day in a month, that's still catastrophically high in terms of daily acute illness and resulting long COVID cases of approximately 30,000/day.
Why Is Transmission in Mid-Feb of 2024 Worse Than At This Time Point Any Other Year?
Remember, in the U.S. a year ago, we still had a pandemic emergency declaration. It guided the narrative to take COVID seriously. It offered (too limited but) more testing than today. There was a greater emphasis on vaccination, testing, quarantine, and isolation. There was a push to add more air cleaning, rather than chuck air cleaners. All of this is to say that #PublicHealth is very weak right now, driven too often by extremely short-term financial and political considerations. As someone whose PhD dissertation focused on "delay of gratification" and whose MBA focused on long-term financial analytics, I like to think more in terms of 30-year plans. What we're doing right now is focusing more on quarterly (short-term corporate interests) or 9 month plans (elections). The consequence of laissez-faire public health is 84 consecutive days of >1 million U.S. daily COVID infections.
As always, please feel free to screenshot, crop, and share graphics from the above or our online report. No permission needed. 🙏
Full PMC Forecasting Dashboard and Report:
pmc19.com/data/
Full PMC Forecasting Dashboard and Report:
pmc19.com/data/
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