This is a quick and by no means exhaustive review of what Russia might be producing in terms of new artillery systems.
Focus so far has mostly been on shells, which I believe might be the wrong thing to look at if you're attempting to find potential artillery-related shortages.
There are 4 factories that produce (or have recently produced) new artillery units and related artillery-specific components:
- Uraltransmash: 2S19 Msta-S, 2S35 Koalitsiya, 2S40 Floks, 2S3 Akatsiya (modernization)
- Motovilikha Plants: 2S34 Khosta, 2S31 Vena
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- Titan-Barrikady: mainly cannons (2A64 for 2S19; 2A44 for 2S7(M) Malka/Pion)
- Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant (ChTP): engines for 2S19, 2S3, 2S35
A failed 2014 export contract to Iraq (supposedly for 36 or 54 2A65 Msta-B systems) allegedly caused serious financial damage to Uraltransmash (UTM).
Motovilikha Plants declared bankruptcy in 2018.
Nevertheless, UTM remains the most important factory.
The only artillery system that appears to be in serial new production is the 2S19 (M1 and M2).
In 2014, UTM delivered 36 M1 and 24 M2 to the Ministry of Defense of Russia. In 2015, 18 and 36 respectively.
In 2016, it signed a contract for delivery of 42 M2 until 2019.
In 2019, UTM delivered 114 units of M1 and M2, but allegedly most of these were modernized existing units.
A few weeks ago, Shoigu visited UTM, and did not have particularly nice things to say, although it was reported that production had increased "6 times compared to 2022."
UTM has also delivered small amounts of 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV. I managed to find announcements for 2 in 2013, 10 in 2014, and 10 in 2020. Military Balance says the army has 8.
In Oct 2023, an announcement was made of the delivery of "a batch" of 2S40 Floks.
Reportedly, RU has been fielding 200 to 300 "new" howitzers per month since last year.
However, UA estimates from Oct 2023 are that RU is able to produce only 30 to 50 artillery barrels per year. Thus, most of these "new" howitzers are reactivated ones from storage.
This is consistent with what I've been able to find based on delivery announcements.
Most work appears to be repairs and modernization of existing systems. In particular, I found multiple announcements for deliveries of modernized 2S3M.
A large fire erupted in ChTP in November 2023.
There is no assessment I could find of the damage to the facilities, but some production of engines for 2S19, 2S3, and 2S35 might have been disrupted.
I apologize for any inaccuracies or omissions. I am not a specialist in this topic, just a mere observer.
Any corrections, additions, or suggestions are more than welcome.
I've previously discussed some calculations and adjustments to data on visually confirmed 🇷🇺 losses in the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war. As a follow-up, I'd like to look at more precise calculations on total losses + remaining stocks.
Let's first look at MBTs.
We work with imperfect data. Thus, a number of adjustments are required.
In general, the greater the required adjustment, the lower the confidence in the estimate. Many of the data points we have require significant adjustments, so the estimates below are low confidence.
That said, the required adjustments for MBTs are likely to be the smallest.
Due to their tactical and propaganda value, as well as due to their general proximity and visibility on the battlefield, MBT losses are probably one of the most complete sets of visually confirmed data.
A key question related to the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war is when 🇷🇺 will exhaust its reserves of key military equipment - tanks (MBTs), armoured vehicles, artillery, various transportation vehicles. Two ingredients needed to answer that: rate of loss, remaining stock. Some thoughts on losses data.
Many journalists and even military analysts use available data in ways I find suboptimal. As the time passes and numbers accumulate, such analyses based on wrong interpretations may lead to very misleading conclusions. So discussing the underlying data is important.
The most popular source of data on losses has been the Oryx database. It has been cited by the NYT, the WaPo, the BBC, and a myriad of non-English language media outlets. It features the most complete data on heavy equipment losses for both sides since Feb 24, 2022.
Why everyone should help 🇺🇦 clear landmines as fast as possible – the most important thread I've written.
The response to the 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 has been muted in some parts of the world. Exploring the reasons is a story for another time, but everyone should be concerned.
1/23
UA is often referred to as the breadbasket of Europe. Its lands contain a quarter of one of the most fertile soils on earth – the black soil.
At the same time, the country is not densely populated, with 72 people per sq km (compared to 234 in Germany, and 428 in India).
2/23
Naturally, UA is a major exporter of food.
The country is among the top 5 biggest exporters of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower oil.