A few weeks ago @CovertCabal and @HighMarsed published the most detailed publicly available count of RU artillery units in storage. The count offers a very compelling low-end estimate of what's left in storage. Let's try and make some adjustments.

A long thread. The problem with arty is it's further away from the frontline, offering lower visibility on average. It is relatively easier to recover once hit, so a damaged/destroyed unit will stay at a visible spot for a shorter time. This makes it harder for losses to be visually confirmed.

This is a quick and by no means exhaustive review of what Russia might be producing in terms of new artillery systems.

Focus so far has mostly been on shells, which I believe might be the wrong thing to look at if you're attempting to find potential artillery-related shortages. There are 4 factories that produce (or have recently produced) new artillery units and related artillery-specific components:
- Uraltransmash: 2S19 Msta-S, 2S35 Koalitsiya, 2S40 Floks, 2S3 Akatsiya (modernization)
- Motovilikha Plants: 2S34 Khosta, 2S31 Vena
(continues...)

One problem @HighMarsed and @CovertCabal faced during their 🇷🇺 storage satellite image count was distinguishing between D-20, D-1, and M-30 howitzers.

This is important, because this set of systems represents over 50% of all visible stored towed arty.

https://twitter.com/HighMarsed/status/1753578892344877301

The D-1 and M-30 systems have important qualitative differences that make them unlikely candidates for reactivation.

https://twitter.com/waffentraeger/status/1753866509724635504

I've previously discussed some calculations and adjustments to data on visually confirmed 🇷🇺 losses in the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war. As a follow-up, I'd like to look at more precise calculations on total losses + remaining stocks.

Let's first look at MBTs. We work with imperfect data. Thus, a number of adjustments are required.

In general, the greater the required adjustment, the lower the confidence in the estimate. Many of the data points we have require significant adjustments, so the estimates below are low confidence.

A key question related to the 🇷🇺🇺🇦 war is when 🇷🇺 will exhaust its reserves of key military equipment - tanks (MBTs), armoured vehicles, artillery, various transportation vehicles. Two ingredients needed to answer that: rate of loss, remaining stock. Some thoughts on losses data. Many journalists and even military analysts use available data in ways I find suboptimal. As the time passes and numbers accumulate, such analyses based on wrong interpretations may lead to very misleading conclusions. So discussing the underlying data is important.

Why everyone should help 🇺🇦 clear landmines as fast as possible – the most important thread I've written.

The response to the 🇷🇺 invasion of 🇺🇦 has been muted in some parts of the world. Exploring the reasons is a story for another time, but everyone should be concerned.

1/23 UA is often referred to as the breadbasket of Europe. Its lands contain a quarter of one of the most fertile soils on earth – the black soil.

At the same time, the country is not densely populated, with 72 people per sq km (compared to 234 in Germany, and 428 in India).

2/23