Thread by @MartinSauerbrey

On Russias plans for the destruction of Ukraine.

My definition: Russia wants to destroy 1) an independent democratic Ukrainian state,wants 2) to prohibit Ukraine from becoming integrated in EU a. NATO, 3) wants to erase Ukrainian national identity. Imo there are 4 escal. phases:

1) Russia tried to control Ukraine via presidents who saw Ukraines future in alliance with Russia and as part of Russias vehicle of dominance, the Eurasian Economic Union. The puppet to do so was Janukowitsch. Russia did interfere in the 2004 elections to get him elected, but

ultimately failed because its meddling was not tolerated by many Ukrainians. Afterwards, it used economic and political pressure to hinder more westward leaning politics. As Janukowitsch was elected again, he started to steer Ukraine on a solid course towards EEU and Russia.

At the same time, he strove to dismantle Ukrainian democracy by strengthening his presidential powers and sideline the Rada. With help of his Party of Regions, he was on a good way to achieve his and Russias' goal. Only problem was that many Ukrainians still wanted deeper ties

with the EU (not NATO). Janukowitsch was (unwillingly) negotiating an Ass. Agr. with the EU, which he, after severe pressure from Russia, decided not to sign it. That triggered Maidan, which ended Russias ambitions to transform Ukraine into a Russian puppet similar to Belarus.

2) After this door to vassalizing Ukraine closed, Russia instrumentalized grievances (it deliberately furthered over years of propaganda and disinformation) to invade and annex Crimea and stage coups throughout left bank Ukraine. Of those only the coups in Luhansk and Donezk

succeeded. Russias goal was to federalize Ukraine by creating "autonomous" regions and paralyze Ukraine through its proxies there, which would have enabled it to hinder any westward move and thereby would have achieved its goal to end Ukraines independence.

After things escalated, Russia had to send troops to save its proxies. The Minsk agreements were a further step in achieving Russias goal as they ultimately would have led to federalization.

3) The invasion of Ukraine with the aim of annexing big parts of Ukraine and installing a puppet government was the next step of escalation. That was foiled by Zelenskys refusal to flee and Ukrainians will to resist.

4) War of attrition and destruction. Russia now tries to inflict as much damage on Ukraine as it can, as its plans were foiled. Until now Ukraine resisted Russias efforts to subjugate it and Russia is now intend on bleeding and bombing it (and the west) into submission.

There are two possible ways to achieve that:

I.) Conquering the whole of Ukraine, which would be very costly and ultimately might be dangerous for the kremlin gang. That's why they are going for:

II) Armistice, Frozen Conflict. It would also achieve Russias goal of creating a puppet Ukraine that it could prevent at any time to pursue western leaning politics. Russia would enforce all kinds of points on rump Ukraine that would make sure it would remain a vassal with

possible further escalation and finally annexation of the whole of Ukraine.

As the Russian occupational regime shows, it is now intend on erasing Ukraine culture and identity. Banning Ukrainian from schools, burning books, erasing Ukrainian from the public space, indoctrination

children, terror, executions, torture, kidnapping of kids. All these measures are aiming at Russification. This was long in the making as many speeches and essays of government officials pre- and post war show that were intend of negating a Ukrainian identity and nation

that was detached from Russian identity. Ukraine was constructed as a historical accident that can't exist without Russia. This gained much more traction with the start of the war, when genocidal fantasies against Ukrainians are freely vented on Russian state media or

even by government officials. Russia would have been complacent with a destinct Ukrainian identity in the first two phases, but as the events of 2014 served as a catalyst for Ukrainian identity building, it seems to have come to the conclusion that the newly found

Ukrainian self-awareness and identity as a democratic, westward leaning nation, with a history that is distinct from Russias history, that treats Russia as only one - though bad - part of its history, is a threat that has to be erased. After the failure of capturing

Kyiv and installing a puppet regime, Russia seems to finally have understood that it won't be able to dominate a Ukraine that has its own self-reliant identity, of which a major part is despising Russia as mortal enemy. So it has to erase this identity. And that means erasing

Ukrainian culture, language and, if necessary, Ukraine. End