"möglich und machbar"

a) Russland will die Ukraine dominieren und auf einen Vasallenstatus reduzieren. Seit 1991 liefen die russischen Bestrebungen darauf hinaus. Die Ukraine wollte sich dem immer entziehen.

b) Die USA haben kein Interesse daran sich langfristig in

1/x 🧵

https://twitter.com/matstrolz/status/1902261223980208161

der Ukraine zu engagieren. Schon die Biden-Administration hat es unter allen Umständen vermieden Russland über Maßen zu provozieren, geschweige denn einen Krieg zu riskieren. Donald Trump hat nie einen Hehl daraus gemacht, dass die Ukraine nur Verhandlungsmasse ist. Die ⬇️

It´s Snake Oil, Stupid!

Ukraine and the US meet in Riyadh today. The points to discuss are the following:

a) peace negotiations and ceasefire proposal
b) the "Minerals Agreement"
c) restoration of support and intelligence
d) security guarantees

Or so it seems.

[Thread] 🧵 1/x When the two delegations meet today Ukraines position is not one to envy. After the setup in the WH they have to tread very carefully. The Russian success in Kursk puts further pressure on Ukraine. Russia has used the chaos that Trump unleashed well. ⬇️

Breaking: Ukraine is still fighting for its survival 🧵

The last few weeks were a rough ride fueled by the rampage of the Trump administration with the sad spectacle of the Zelensky-Trump meeting as a climax.

Meanwhile the situation at the frontline has stabilized.

1/x ⬇️ On February 28 Trump and Zelensky met in the WH to finalize a minerals agreement that would have given the US access to Ukrainian mineral deposits with no tangible advantages for Ukraine as neither further military support nor tangible security guarantees were given in return. ⬇️

The (un)official transcript of Trumps speech: 🧵

"I started trade wars, crashed the stock market, am throwing Ukraine under the bus, alieniated Europe, Canada and Mexico, Eggs are for the rich now. Russia is tremendously happy, my coup is still ongoing.

Hail me!

⬇️ I don´t know who this George guy is but he is loser. I am much better.

HORROR MUNDI: The meeting that ended an era

Yesterdays humiliating and disgusting display was a fitting finale for an era. It not only highlighted were the USA stand but also that in no way it can be trusted anymore when it comes to it´s conduct with Europe.

[Thread]🧵 For those who disregarded the noise in the last few weeks yesterdays event was no surprise. Trump never obscured his goals when it comes to Ukraine:

1) Fast peace
2) Rapprochement with Russia
3) Withdrawal from Ukraine and likely (parts of) Europe

⬇️

The Art of the (Un-)Deal 🧵

Trump succeeded in bullying Ukraine into a mineral deal for seemingly not much in return.

Some argue that this is a good thing because it actually gives the US a reason to invest in Ukraines security.

I don´t .⬇️ Why so?

It´s actually (not) quite simple. First the draft doesn´t contain any security guarantees other than this passage which is the equivalent of Trump saying: "I´ll bully the Europeans in providing security guarantees." ⬇️

The state of the Trumpocalypse

Since Trump and Musk took office the world is experiencing not only the takeover of the US-Government by an techno-autocratic force but also the demolishing of the remnants of the old world order. ⬇️ Trump is finishing what Putin and Xi set out to do. His foreign policy is marked by an all out assault on democratic partners and allies. Trump so far threatend Canada, Denmark, the EU, Mexico, Panama, South Africa and of course Ukraine. What is remarkable is the fact that ⬇️

THE GREAT CLUCKING

Since Vance, flanked by other US officials, gave his speech in Munich, the roost is in utter disarray. Why did he do it? It's quite simple:

To further the division in European societies. To keep the Europeans busy. To support the AfD. Humiliation of EU. ⏬️ He succeeded splendidly. Those whom he wanted to lend a hand are lapping up his words, regardless of the fact that the new US administration set out to transform and take over the US. One notorious German journalist even called him an "intellectual giant." ⏬️

Das Ende der Demokratie

Die Regierung Trumps hat es sich zum Ziel gesetzt, möglichst viele Regierungsorganisation zu lähmen und zu zerstören. Was momentan beobachtet werden kann, ist nichts anderes als ein Coup.

US-Diplomatie und Soft Power werden ebenfalls untergraben. 🔽 Es ist eine Rückkehr ins 19. Jahrhundert, und China und Russland schauen erstaunt und ein wenig unbehaglich zu. Es scheint, als ob sich Widerstand formiert, aber es könnte zu spät sein. Trumps und Musks Aktionen werden von links und rechts bejubelt. Der Abbau 🔽

Breaking: Democracy is still fighting for its survival.

So. I haven't posted anything on what has happened in Ukraine or in the world for some time. The reason is quite simple: There are so many things developing right now that it's hard to keep track. ⏬️ 1) Ukraine

All in all, not much has changed. Russia is steadily advancing while suffering horrendous casualties. Ukraine is still resisting stubbornly. Ukraine has the same needs it has since the start of the war. Europe is still unable to act accordingly. ⏬️

Der Mythos des „Schuldkults“

Da Musk den Mythos eines „Schuldkults“ in Deutschland bemüht hat, ein paar Worte zu diesem Thema.

Als Musk sich an die AfD wandte, bemühte er ein Narrativ, das zu den Lieblingsnarrativen der neuen (extremen) Rechten in Österreich und ⬇️ Deutschland gehört. Dass „wir“ endlich mit der Vergangenheit abschließen und aufhören müssen, über die Ereignisse während der nationalsozialistischen Schreckensherrschaft zu sprechen und uns daran zu erinnern. In dieser Erzählung hält die „Schuld“ Deutsche und Österreicher⬇️

The myth of a "cult of guilt"

Since Musk vented the myth of a "cult of guilt" in Germany (and subsequently Austria) a few words on this topic.

When Musk adressed the AFD he used a narrative that´s one of the favorites of the new (far) right in Austria and Germany. That "we"⬇️ finally have to lay the past to rest and stop discussing and remembering what happend during the National Socialists reign of terror. In this narrative the "guilt" is holding back and hampering Germans and Austrians to perform at their best. ⬇️

2025 - Ukraine is still fighting for its survival

As the war in Ukraine wages on without respite, a lot has happened in the last year.

The situation on the battlefield hasn´t change much with Russia slowly advancing but being incapable to achieve any major gains.⬇️

[Thread]🧵 While Russia grinds on in Donbas with staggering casualties - at least 500.000 personell and thousands of tanks, IFW etc. - Ukraine launched an offensive into Kursk oblast which took the Russians by surprise. Even though many expected the Russians to push out the AFU in short ⬇️

Weils mir keine Ruhe lässt:

Militarismusvorwurf die Xte. 🧵

Fangen wir mal von vorne an:

1) "zu schwach": Russland hat ca. 700.000 Mann in der Ukraine. Tausende KPz, SPz und Artilleriesysteme. Drohnen. Hunderte Flugzeuge. Das ist nach allen Definitionen eine große Armee. ⏬️

https://twitter.com/VogelFriedemann/status/1867471983644213594

Die Russen haben viele Fehler gemacht, haben aber auch viel gelernt. Sie drücken die AFU - die zweitgrößte Armee Europas - langsam nach Westen. Unter horrenden Verlusten. Es wird für Russland zusehends schwierig, die Verluste auszugleichen, die Lager laufen leer. ⏬️

Feature: Chinese Expansionism

"China is not interested in expansion and has not been so in historically."

A narrative that is often used. However, a weaponized narrative to influence politicians and the public abroad.

[a 3000 years thread] 🧵 ⏬ I would like to start with the obvious:

How it started vs. How it's going.

Chinese history also follows a certain pattern:

Dynasty - fragmentation - dynasty - fragmentation ....

Feature: China & die "Defensiv orientierte Expansion"

"China ist nicht an Expansion interessiert und ist es historisch auch nicht gewesen."

Ein gern bemühtes Narrativ. Aber ein Weaponized Narrative, um Politiker & Öffentlichkeit zu beinflussen.

[3000 years thread]🧵 ⏬ Starten möchte ich mit dem Offensichtlichen:

How it started vs. How it´s going.

Auch folgt die chinesische Geschichte einem gewissen Muster:

Dynastie - Zersplitterung - Dynastie - Zersplitterung ....

⏬

The Romanian (European) Dilemma

On December 6th the Constitutional Court of Romania annulled the results of the first round of the elections after it became public that one of the candidates - Călin Georgescu - won with the help of a massive Tik-Tok campaign.

[Thread] 🧵 ⏬ Georgescu won the first round of the elections with 23% of all the votes. That came as an surprise as he was quite unknown before and was seen as a fringe candidate. His politicial positions are anti-EU, anti-NATO, pro-Russian and he caters the ususal right wing conspiracies ⏬

Ukraine is still fighting for its survival.

Russia is pressing on all fronts. Russian economy is reaching its limits. Trump got elected. New EU-Commission got elected. German coalition is down. China is fishing in hostile waters. etc...

[A very long Thread] 🧵 Since I last wrote about the status of the war some things have changed with the reelection of Trump as the main event. But first let´s take a look at the frontlines:

The last major change that happened were the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk and maybe the fall of Vuhledar. ⏬

The thing that we experience in Moldova, Georgia, and elsewhere is a problem that's hard to solve for democracies. The massive, obvious interferences damage the process of election and damage democracy in itself. The affected state has limited possibilities in dealing with it. 1/

https://twitter.com/polidemitolog/status/1853119958382727372

1) It can annull the elections. This is the obvious way, but, as in Moldova or Georgia, there are many who actually vote the way Russia wants it because of real grievances and problems. Those might feel disenfranchised and duped and will harden in their stance or even get

Die "Korea-Lösung"

oder wie

"Sulla zu seinen Listen kam."

@JohannesVarwick hat diesmal einen sehr interessanten Artikel geteilt, aber wohl aus anderen Gründen als man es zuerst denkt.

ipg-journal.de/rubriken/ausse… x.com/JohannesVarwic… Der Autor stellt in dem Artikel - zu recht - fest, dass die "Korea-Lösung", also die Teilung der Ukraine ohne einer tatsächlichen Beilegung des Konfliktes, unabsehbare Folgen hätte.

"Ukraine is finished." 🧵

Some say Ukraine has lost, some that victory is an illusion while others maintain Ukraine can win.
Usually they all have on thing in common: They look at the Ukrainian side in isolation from Russia. Thats bad practice. While the dooming reached new heights during Russias summer offensive, Russia in fact gained little with the fall of Vuhledar the biggest success. Meanwhile the AFU were capable enough to launch a very well executed offensive into Kursk and managed to hold most of the