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Martin Sauerbrey Profile picture
Martin Sauerbrey
@MartinSauerbrey
Historian | Researcher at LBI for the Consequences of War | Digital Humanities, Eastern Europe, Byzantium | All opinions are my own
3 subscribers
Jun 21 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Russian colonialism. A long 🧵

Some didn´t get the memo but Russia was - and is - a colonial power.

Let´s take a tour around this marvelous empire:

1/x Image Let´s turn east first: The conquest of Siberia was as bloody as it could get. Every tribe that resisted was brutally slaughtered and brought to heel. This process continued into the 19th century and all along Russian settler colonialism was ongoing with the result that

2/ Image
Jun 14 • 27 tweets • 7 min read
Russia as Colonial Power

84 years ago Russian deportations started mass deportations in the Baltics

Why the Baltics are a good example why it should be a goal to restore Ukraine in it´s 1991 borders as fast as possible.

A long 🧵

1/x Image The Baltics seem to have regained their independece after they were "occupied for half a century."

So now let´s take a dive into Baltic history and look into the history of Russian and Soviet occupation of the Baltics.

2/x
May 21 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
The myth of a "Cult of Guilt"

The heroization of war criminals and their crimes.

The AfD uses a narrative that´s one of the favorites of the new (far) right in Austria and Germany.

Let´s talk about he "Schuldkult"

1/x ⬇️ The narrative: "We" finally have to lay the past to rest and stop discussing and remembering what happend during the National Socialists reign of terror. In this narrative the "guilt" is holding back and hampering Germans and Austrians to perform at their best. ⬇️
May 21 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
Der Mythos des „Schuldkults“

Wenn ein brutaler Angriffskrieg heroisiert wird.

Aus gegebenem Anlass. Die AfD bemüht gerne ein Narrativ, das zu den Lieblingsnarrativen der neuen (extremen) Rechten in Österreich und Deutschland gehört: Der "Schuldkult". Das Narrativ: „Wir“ müssten endlich mit der Vergangenheit abschließen und aufhören müssen, über die Ereignisse während der nationalsozialistischen Schreckensherrschaft zu sprechen und uns daran zu erinnern. In dieser Erzählung hält die „Schuld“ Deutsche und Österreicher⬇️
May 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Politikwissenschaft am Limit

1) Die Beitrittsdebatte gab es zwar, aber an keinem Punkt hätte es eine reale Chance gegeben, dass die Ukraine tatsächlich der NATO beitreten hätte können. Wichtige Staaten wie Frankreich oder Deutschland waren immer gegen einen Beitritt.

1/ Die Niederlande, Italien, Ungarn und Bulgarien meldeten ebenfalls Bedenken an.

In der Ukraine selbst gab es vor der Annexion der Krim in der Bevölkerung nie mehr als ~20% Zustimmung zu einem Beitritt. Erst Russlands Invasion der Krim und der Krieg im Donbas änderten das.

2/
May 3 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
Die DEBATTE

Die Einstufung des Verfassungsschutzes die AfD sei Bundesweit rechtsextrem hat erwartungsgemäß Wellen geschlagen.

Man zeigt sich erfreut, empört, beleidigt, überrascht. Egal welche Befindlichkeit: Man will darüber die DEBATTE.

1/x ⬇️ Nun ist das ein grundsätzlicher guter Ansatz, die Debatte ist ja der Motor einer guten Demokratie, jedoch hinterlässt diese Forderung im Kontext der AfD einen fahlen Nachgeschmack.

Die Argumentation, man müsse das ja breiter in der Gesellschaft diskutieren und hinterfragen, ⬇️
Mar 19 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
"möglich und machbar"

a) Russland will die Ukraine dominieren und auf einen Vasallenstatus reduzieren. Seit 1991 liefen die russischen Bestrebungen darauf hinaus. Die Ukraine wollte sich dem immer entziehen.

b) Die USA haben kein Interesse daran sich langfristig in

1/x 🧵 der Ukraine zu engagieren. Schon die Biden-Administration hat es unter allen Umständen vermieden Russland über Maßen zu provozieren, geschweige denn einen Krieg zu riskieren. Donald Trump hat nie einen Hehl daraus gemacht, dass die Ukraine nur Verhandlungsmasse ist. Die ⬇️
Mar 10 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
It´s Snake Oil, Stupid!

Ukraine and the US meet in Riyadh today. The points to discuss are the following:

a) peace negotiations and ceasefire proposal
b) the "Minerals Agreement"
c) restoration of support and intelligence
d) security guarantees

Or so it seems.

[Thread] 🧵 1/x Image When the two delegations meet today Ukraines position is not one to envy. After the setup in the WH they have to tread very carefully. The Russian success in Kursk puts further pressure on Ukraine. Russia has used the chaos that Trump unleashed well. ⬇️
Mar 7 • 27 tweets • 5 min read
Breaking: Ukraine is still fighting for its survival 🧵

The last few weeks were a rough ride fueled by the rampage of the Trump administration with the sad spectacle of the Zelensky-Trump meeting as a climax.

Meanwhile the situation at the frontline has stabilized.

1/x ⬇️ On February 28 Trump and Zelensky met in the WH to finalize a minerals agreement that would have given the US access to Ukrainian mineral deposits with no tangible advantages for Ukraine as neither further military support nor tangible security guarantees were given in return. ⬇️
Mar 5 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
The (un)official transcript of Trumps speech: 🧵

"I started trade wars, crashed the stock market, am throwing Ukraine under the bus, alieniated Europe, Canada and Mexico, Eggs are for the rich now. Russia is tremendously happy, my coup is still ongoing.

Hail me!

⬇️ Image I don´t know who this George guy is but he is loser. I am much better. Image
Mar 1 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
HORROR MUNDI: The meeting that ended an era

Yesterdays humiliating and disgusting display was a fitting finale for an era. It not only highlighted were the USA stand but also that in no way it can be trusted anymore when it comes to it´s conduct with Europe.

[Thread]🧵 For those who disregarded the noise in the last few weeks yesterdays event was no surprise. Trump never obscured his goals when it comes to Ukraine:

1) Fast peace
2) Rapprochement with Russia
3) Withdrawal from Ukraine and likely (parts of) Europe

⬇️
Feb 26 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
The Art of the (Un-)Deal 🧵

Trump succeeded in bullying Ukraine into a mineral deal for seemingly not much in return.

Some argue that this is a good thing because it actually gives the US a reason to invest in Ukraines security.

I don´t .⬇️ Why so?

It´s actually (not) quite simple. First the draft doesn´t contain any security guarantees other than this passage which is the equivalent of Trump saying: "I´ll bully the Europeans in providing security guarantees." ⬇️ Image
Feb 20 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
The state of the Trumpocalypse

Since Trump and Musk took office the world is experiencing not only the takeover of the US-Government by an techno-autocratic force but also the demolishing of the remnants of the old world order. ⬇️ Trump is finishing what Putin and Xi set out to do. His foreign policy is marked by an all out assault on democratic partners and allies. Trump so far threatend Canada, Denmark, the EU, Mexico, Panama, South Africa and of course Ukraine. What is remarkable is the fact that ⬇️
Feb 15 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
THE GREAT CLUCKING

Since Vance, flanked by other US officials, gave his speech in Munich, the roost is in utter disarray. Why did he do it? It's quite simple:

To further the division in European societies. To keep the Europeans busy. To support the AfD. Humiliation of EU. ⏬️ He succeeded splendidly. Those whom he wanted to lend a hand are lapping up his words, regardless of the fact that the new US administration set out to transform and take over the US. One notorious German journalist even called him an "intellectual giant." ⏬️
Feb 6 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Das Ende der Demokratie

Die Regierung Trumps hat es sich zum Ziel gesetzt, möglichst viele Regierungsorganisation zu lähmen und zu zerstören. Was momentan beobachtet werden kann, ist nichts anderes als ein Coup.

US-Diplomatie und Soft Power werden ebenfalls untergraben. 🔽 Es ist eine Rückkehr ins 19. Jahrhundert, und China und Russland schauen erstaunt und ein wenig unbehaglich zu. Es scheint, als ob sich Widerstand formiert, aber es könnte zu spät sein. Trumps und Musks Aktionen werden von links und rechts bejubelt. Der Abbau 🔽
Feb 5 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Breaking: Democracy is still fighting for its survival.

So. I haven't posted anything on what has happened in Ukraine or in the world for some time. The reason is quite simple: There are so many things developing right now that it's hard to keep track. ⏬️ 1) Ukraine

All in all, not much has changed. Russia is steadily advancing while suffering horrendous casualties. Ukraine is still resisting stubbornly. Ukraine has the same needs it has since the start of the war. Europe is still unable to act accordingly. ⏬️
Jan 26 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
Der Mythos des „Schuldkults“

Da Musk den Mythos eines „Schuldkults“ in Deutschland bemüht hat, ein paar Worte zu diesem Thema.

Als Musk sich an die AfD wandte, bemühte er ein Narrativ, das zu den Lieblingsnarrativen der neuen (extremen) Rechten in Österreich und ⬇️ Image Deutschland gehört. Dass „wir“ endlich mit der Vergangenheit abschließen und aufhören müssen, über die Ereignisse während der nationalsozialistischen Schreckensherrschaft zu sprechen und uns daran zu erinnern. In dieser Erzählung hält die „Schuld“ Deutsche und Österreicher⬇️
Jan 26 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
The myth of a "cult of guilt"

Since Musk vented the myth of a "cult of guilt" in Germany (and subsequently Austria) a few words on this topic.

When Musk adressed the AFD he used a narrative that´s one of the favorites of the new (far) right in Austria and Germany. That "we"⬇️ Image finally have to lay the past to rest and stop discussing and remembering what happend during the National Socialists reign of terror. In this narrative the "guilt" is holding back and hampering Germans and Austrians to perform at their best. ⬇️
Jan 2 • 28 tweets • 5 min read
2025 - Ukraine is still fighting for its survival

As the war in Ukraine wages on without respite, a lot has happened in the last year.

The situation on the battlefield hasn´t change much with Russia slowly advancing but being incapable to achieve any major gains.⬇️

[Thread]🧵 While Russia grinds on in Donbas with staggering casualties - at least 500.000 personell and thousands of tanks, IFW etc. - Ukraine launched an offensive into Kursk oblast which took the Russians by surprise. Even though many expected the Russians to push out the AFU in short ⬇️
Dec 14, 2024 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
Weils mir keine Ruhe lässt:

Militarismusvorwurf die Xte. 🧵

Fangen wir mal von vorne an:

1) "zu schwach": Russland hat ca. 700.000 Mann in der Ukraine. Tausende KPz, SPz und Artilleriesysteme. Drohnen. Hunderte Flugzeuge. Das ist nach allen Definitionen eine große Armee. ⏬️ Die Russen haben viele Fehler gemacht, haben aber auch viel gelernt. Sie drücken die AFU - die zweitgrößte Armee Europas - langsam nach Westen. Unter horrenden Verlusten. Es wird für Russland zusehends schwierig, die Verluste auszugleichen, die Lager laufen leer. ⏬️
Dec 10, 2024 • 42 tweets • 14 min read
Feature: Chinese Expansionism

"China is not interested in expansion and has not been so in historically."

A narrative that is often used. However, a weaponized narrative to influence politicians and the public abroad.

[a 3000 years thread] 🧵 ⏬ Image I would like to start with the obvious:

How it started vs. How it's going.

Chinese history also follows a certain pattern:

Dynasty - fragmentation - dynasty - fragmentation .... Image
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