Why the Baltics are a good example why it should be a goal to restore Ukraine in it´s 1991 borders as fast as possible.

A long 🧵

In an interview Czech President Petr Pavel said that Moscow might control territories of Ukraine temporarily.

nytimes.com/2024/09/23/wor…
The Baltics seem to have regained their independece after they were "occupied for half a century."

So now let´s take a dive into Baltic history and look into the history of Russian and Soviet occupation of the Baltics.

Weils mir keine Ruhe lässt.

@JohannesVarwick stellte heute fest, dass sich die Ukraine der Realität stellen solle, dass einige Teile Ihres Territorium zeitweise unter russischer Kontrolle stehen werden würden. Dann führt er die Balten ins Rennen, die ja schließlich🧵 nach einem halben Jahrhundert ja auch ihre Freiheit wiedererlangt. Sehen wir uns mal an, was der Professor hier so salopp in den Raum gestellt hat:

1) Die russische Besatzung dauerte wesentlich länger. Estland und Teile Livlands kamen 1710 unter russische Herrschaft.

As the thread on BREAKTHROUGHS!! gained some attention, I want to add some more thoughts:

1) Operational and tactical level breakthroughs:

As some of you might already have guessed I chose extremely successfull operations which were operational breakthroughs.

https://twitter.com/MartinSauerbrey/status/1827988856399925313

Those I compared to something that might be a or might develope into a breakthrough on the tactical (and later operational) level in Donbas (or Kursk).

I did that to make you aware that sometimes we have to wait until things play out over some time. Everytime something happens

Short 🧵 on what is a BREAKTHROUGH!! and what not:

1) The mothers of all breakthroughs:

Left: Operation Bagration of the Red Army June to August 1944

Right: Unternehmen Barbarossa of the Wehrmacht 1941

Not a breakthrough:

On Kursk, Russia, Ukraine and Humanity 🧵

Since the Kursk-offensive has started many videos of Ukrainian soldiers helping and assisting Russian citizens in the territories they controll surfaced.

In collab with @spartyflyboy

https://x.com/i/status/1825105480596807994

At the same time Russian troops post videos of decapitated AFU-soldiers. Posted by Rusich, a well known ultra-nationalistic neo-nazi group, who also just recently posted that they are looking for a human sacrifice for their pagan gods. But that´s just the tip of the iceberg.

BREAKING: Ukraine is still fighting for its survival 🧵

The battle for Ukraine is raging with even more intensity since AFU started its Kursk operation. While Ukraine is making gains in Russia, Russia is continuing the meat grinder in Donbas. A few thoughts on what´s happening. A few days ago i wrote a thread about some takeaways from the first days of the offensive. Since then the situation remains quite foggy but we see the AFU making gains while Russia is still struggling to organize resistance. Ukraine is bringing in more

https://x.com/MartinSauerbrey/status/1822345597069705216

Über Russische Desinformation 🧵

Heute: COVID-19

Wie Russland die Pandemie nutzte, um die gesellschaftlichen Gräben in Europa zu vertiefen und mithilfe der „Firehose of Falsehoods“ mehr Menschen an seine Informationsumgebung zu binden, und was das mit der Ukraine zu tun hat. Aber der Reihe nach. Schon vor Ausbruch der Pandemie hatte Russland ein gut funktionierendes Desinformationsnetzwerk aufgebaut, dessen Flaggschiffe „Russia Today“ – später „RT“ – und „Sputnik News“ waren. Beide sind in zahlreichen Sprachen verfügbar und bieten maßgeschneiderte

Russische Propaganda und Desinformation 🧵

Jeder Krieg, der geführt wird, geht auch mit dem massiven Einsatz von Propaganda und Desinformation einher. Im Laufe des letzten Jahrhunderts haben die UdSSR und die RF ein unverwechselbares Instrumentarium entwickelt, um 1/ und den Informationsraum zu dominieren und dadurch die Wahrnehmung und Entscheidungsfindung in einer Weise zu beeinflussen, die Russland zugute kommt. Konzepte: "Active Measures", "Hybrid Warfare", "Reflexive Control" & "Firehose of Falsehoods", "Weaponized Narratives."

BREAKING: Ukraine is still fighting for its survival.

The AFU took the fight on Russian soil for real this time. Many have written a lot about the whole thing even though we (at least I) don't know what the calculus behind it is.

But there are some things we can state by now: 1) Ukraine is willing and capable to undertake operations on a larger scale. I myself had serious doubts, but the Kursk operation shows that they are capable of doing so. They managed to undertake the buildup in relative secrecy, chose the location wisely, and executed it well.

On war memorials, riots and cyberattacks -
How Russia's political war threatens our societies. 🧵

or

How a war memorial can plunge a state into crisis. At the end of May 2007, Estonia had a difficult time behind it: riots that claimed one life, many injured and devastation in Tallinn; Cyberattacks that paralyzed the state administration. The bone of contention: A war memorial dedicated to the fallen soldiers

Kyiver Rus: Part 3

"For at this time the Russes were ignorant pagans. The devil rejoiced thereat, for he did not know that his ruin was approaching." - Povest vremenykh let, 83

- Excursus: written medieval sources
- Kyiv: The baptism of Voldomir/Valdemar In the last thread I briefly talked about medieval sources and the problems that arise in dealing with them. Here are a few additions: 2/

Kyiver Rus: Part 2

"Thus Oleg ruled in Kiev, and dwelt at peace with all nations." - Povest vremenikh let, (38)

- Excursus: medieval sources -
- Kyiv: "mythical" foundation and expansion

1/23 In addition to archaeological findings, historians rely on written sources. There are some problems here, especially for the "Middle Ages", which can vary depending on the region. For the Rus the problem arises that here for a long 3/

Let´s talk about Russian Information Operations. 🧵

Featuring today: COVID-19

How Russia used the Pandemic to further societal rifts in Europe and to bind more people to their information environment by using the "Firehose of Falsehoods" and what that has to do with Ukraine. But first things first. Before the Pandemic started Russia already had created a well oiled disinformation network with "Russia Today" - later "RT" - and "Sputnik News" as its high gloss flagships. Both are available in numerous languages and each one of them caters tailor made

On Russia plans on subjugating and destroying an independent Ukraine.

A long 🧵 on 4 phases in which Russia tried to achieve this goal by ever further escalating the situation. 1) Russia tried to control Ukraine via presidents who saw Ukraines future in alliance with Russia and as part of Russias vehicle of dominance, the Eurasian Economic Union. The puppet to do so was Janukowitsch. Russia did interfere in the 2004 elections to get him elected, but

Über Kriegerdenkmäler, Unruhen und Cyberattacken - Wie Russlands politischer Krieg unsere Gesellschaften bedroht. 🧵

oder

Wie ein Kriegerdenkmal einen Staat in die Krise stürzen kann. Ende Mai 2007 hatte Estland eine schwierige Zeit hinter sich: Unruhen, die ein Todesopfer forderten, Verletzte und Verwüstung in Tallinn verursachten; Cyberattacken die die staatliche Verwaltung lahmlegten. Der Stein des Anstoßes: Ein Kriegerdenkmal, das den gefallenen Soldaten

Today lets talk about Russian propaganda and disinformation. 🧵

Every kinetic war waged is also accompanied by the massive use of propaganda and disinformation. Over the last century the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation have developed a distinctive toolset to influence 1/ and dominate the information space,thereby influence the perception & decisionmaking in a way that benefits Russia. Concepts "Active Measures", "Hybrid Warfare", "Reflexive Control" & "Firehose of Falsehoods", "Weaponized Narratives."

Why Russia has to lose this war and why Europe has to ramp up its game.
These are not some freaks but just two of many Russian bloggers, propagandists, etc. that vent such hatred against Ukrainians. This view is also shared by many Russians. Putin succeeded in creating a ⏬️

https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1805541835294597520

society where hatred and racism have a fixed place, where violence is not only everywhere but also encouraged by the state as the videos after the Crocus massacre and many other reports from the front show. History indicates that only a defeat forces such societies to change

BREAKING: Russia is still invading Ukraine.

When Russia failed to seize Kyiv in 3 days, after loosing the battle for Hostomel and another important skirmish near Mykolajiv the world was somehow shocked. In no playbook should that have happened. 1/x Many observers did not give Ukraine a chance to survive the Russian onslaught and actually fight back with terrible losses for Russia.

So. Negotiations in Istanbul are up again. I´ll not dwell on specifics (many who are better suited for that did it already) but want to comment on an interesting thing that bothers me. Many in Europe and in the USA think that if Ukraine had signed the "paper", peace could have been achieved. Well yes. But what would that have meant? Right. Russian dominance over Ukraine. An end to the hopes of many Ukrainians who wanted Ukraine to become more western. To join EU. It would have meant an end of the struggle to end corruption, reign in oligarchs,

Reminder: Ukraine is still fighting for its survival

1) The AFU are not on the verge of collapsing. That´s disinformation.

The Russians are attacking hard but until now they can´t achieve any breakthroughs. They couldn´t capitalize on their success in Avdiivka and but are 1/ grinding on westwards. It´s true that they are gaining land but it´s measured in hundreds of meters which are bought with horrible casualties. Those advances are possible due to Russian advantage in artillery and because the VKS are using more and more glide bombs which they 2/

If you want to have some fun: Russians found out that Rurik´s DNA is that of a slav. No joke.

That´s funny because:

1) Rurik most likley didn´t exist at all. Chances are great that he was an entirely mythical character. Not even the Rus´ Princes traced their geneology back 1/

https://twitter.com/komarnyckyj/status/1767941497209467081

to Rurik but most started with Volodimer. The myth of the Rurikid dynasty was only created by Moscovy in the 15th and 16th century.

2) There´s ample evidence that the Rus´ Elite was comprised of Northmen, which the sources like the PVL and archeological sources proof that. 2/