Today we, the Baltic States 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 and Czechia 🇨🇿 come to this Council to address the entire international community with a very simple message:
For all our sakes, wake up. 🧵
Mme President,
I speak on behalf of Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, and my own country Lithuania.
Today and tomorrow, many will yet again call on Russia to end its brutal war against Ukraine. 🧵
Many will say that Russia’s unprovoked aggression goes against everything these United Nations stand for. Some will question the credibility of this Council to defend the rules-based international order. 🧵
But however loud and eloquent we are, our protests and outrage will barely register in Moscow and rockets will continue to rain down on Ukrainian homes, hospitals, and schools. 🧵
Today we are facing choices that might well define this century, just as the choices in the 1930s defined the previous century. Do we continue to appease the aggressor who is patient and meticulous in his attempts to turn everything this organisation holds dear into a mockery? 🧵
Do we once again allow him to escape responsibility for his aggression? Do we continue to feed him with lives and land, misled by our fear of escalation and naïve hopes that this time he will be fully satisfied? 🧵
Today we come to this Council to address the entire international community with a very simple message:
For all our sakes, wake up. 🧵
If we fail, the rules-based order will crumble. Ukraine’s sovereignty, Europe’s security, as well as the success of global efforts for human rights, accountability, food security and nuclear safety - will all be in the hands of those who benefit from disruption and chaos. 🧵
History reminds us of the terrible cost of the wrong choices. Hedging our bets earns us nothing but more war. 🧵
Russia is being emboldened by our cautious response. We see it emboldened in Ukraine, we see it emboldened in Russia itself - eliminating any opposition, aiming to destroy any hope for a different Russia, a normal, peaceful Russia. 🧵
Revisionist powers across the world are already exploiting our indecisiveness. If not contained, this Kremlin-driven arc of instability will continue to expand, igniting more conflicts that we are not prepared to counter. 🧵
Ukraine may seem far away, and the world’s attention is divided, but it is imperative to realise that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine ultimately impacts us all.
This war must be won, and won decisively. 🧵
This is not just Europe’s war, it is a challenge to the international order, which – while imperfect – aims to ensure that law, rather than military might, determines our borders and sovereignty. 🧵
The choices we make at this crossroads will define how we are remembered. We have the capacity to win, as Ukraine continues to make enormous sacrifices to stand against the ruthless aggressor. History reminds us of the cost of our past mistakes. 🧵
We must also find the political will to come up with an adequate legal response to Russia’s illegal war of territorial conquest. Russia’s leadership must bear full responsibility for the aggression launched by Vladimir Putin, otherwise his impunity will continue. 🧵
Mme President, I would like to remind all those here today that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have been occupied, colonised, and exploited by this same aggressor more than once.
More. than. once. 🧵
And that is why we know from bitter experience that whatever words are spoken, whatever agreements are signed, this aggressor has no plans to stop… until he is stopped.
Thank you. 🧵
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1/4🧵
I am sure there are many ways we could enforce a red line without triggering WWIII. Speaking in Kyiv recently I suggested telling Putin that Ukraine will get Taurus, to take out launch sites, if any Russian drones violate NATO airspace again. Why not?
2/4🧵
The geopolitical Groundhog Day is still stuck on repeat. Each undeterred and unanswered escalation leads to another, bolder and more frequent. Each explanation for inaction becomes weaker and more elaborate. Only real deterrence can stop the cycle.
3/4🧵
This week I joined Financial Times chief foreign affairs columnist Gideon Rachman on his podcast. We discussed the incursions in more depth, and I hope our Western allies will soon pay more attention to the uncomfortable truths I listed. ft.com/content/ebf634…
1/8🧵
Our leaders’ white lies were designed to keep us thinking everything is OK. Now, as things are clearly not OK, it’s time to tell Europeans the truth and prepare them to face reality.
White lies won’t last forever – but telling the truth could save Europe.
My latest article explains how and why it’s time for governments to try using more honesty in strategic communication, and to find the bravery to admit we’re in serious trouble.
Full article in the thread below…
2/8🧵
Politicians might fool their own people with white lies, but I am not so sure of their ability to fool Putin.
Full article:
3/8🧵
Sometimes I hear complaints that Putin will discover our weaknesses if our leaders are too truthful in their public communications. “We need to portray strength,” they say, “Putin is reading our newspapers”.
Their argument implies that the truth must be sacrificed for “stronger” strategic communication. Leaders are advised to ignore the reality on the ground to continue exaggerating our capabilities and readiness in the hope that our visible optimism will convince Putin that we are strong. This plan not only aims to fool Putin, but also recommends using governments’ strategic messaging to keep populations believing everything that could possibly be done is being done, and going well.
On the contrary, I have always believed that truth is the best medicine. But sometimes I am criticised for not playing along, for refusing to strategically tell today’s white lies. So I decided to critique my instincts and give this important question some thought.
Obviously, I agree that Putin and Europeans read the European press and follow the debate that is taking place. I can even agree that it is possible to use strategic communication to fool a large number of your people into thinking that you have things under control. We have seen that working for many years. But I am not so sure about our propaganda’s ability to fool Putin. I know only this – taking an adversary for a fool is a fool's endeavour, so we are probably only fooling ourselves.
We still aren't helping Ukraine to win. Politicians announce their latest attempts to appear busy, but it feels scripted, closer to professional wrestling than reality. Failing in the real world, they construct a pseudo-world and act like the leaders of that. 🧵1/4
The latest announcements made the Russian stock market go up, not down. Putin is not fooled by headlines advertising the latest western nothingburger, but those headlines dominate our discourse and mask the fact that nothing of real consequence is being done.🧵2/4
We must focus our attention on deliveries, not announcements. I will believe the West is sending weapons to Ukraine when I read that Ukraine is sending those weapons towards Russia. That’s the only kind of headline worth waiting for. 🧵3/4
🧵1/4
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister recently stated that, in order to achieve peace, NATO must “withdraw” from the Baltic states. Many found this shocking—but the demand is not new.
As early as the 1990s, when it became clear that newly independent states from the former Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union might join NATO, the Alliance sought to assuage Russian concerns by signing the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997. The document aimed to mitigate Russian objections to NATO’s enlargement.
One of its key political commitments was that NATO would refrain from deploying “substantial” permanent combat forces in the territory of new member states. In return, the Act reaffirmed core international principles, including respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the UN Charter.
Russia has since repeatedly violated these very principles - most notably with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
🧵2/4
Just prior to that invasion, Russia issued a list of demands to Ukraine and the West. Its central demand to NATO: a rollback to the Alliance’s 1997 borders - effectively requiring the withdrawal of NATO forces and infrastructure from all countries that joined after that year.
While NATO declared the Founding Act “dead” in political terms following the invasion, it never formally repudiated or denounced it. So de jure, the document still stands. And one could argue it remains de facto in force as well, since there are still no substantial (i.e., larger than brigade-level) permanent NATO deployments in Eastern Europe. U.S. forces in Poland remain on a rotational basis, and the forthcoming German brigade, even if permanently stationed in Lithuania, is still presented as a non-substantial force, within agreed limits.
Eastern flank members have repeatedly called for the Act to be formally declared null and void, arguing that it creates a two-tiered NATO in which where some countries are less defended than others. Their calls have met stiff resistance from certain allies, and the Act still remains.
🧵3/4
Why is the dead agreement not being binned? Maybe because some Western policymakers still believe that maintaining the optics of restraint might help by avoiding escalation. The extension of the de-escalation doctrine seems to be that if NATO avoids provoking Russia, Moscow might be persuaded to limit its aggression to Ukraine and refrain from challenging NATO directly.
But Russia’s actions—and its own public declarations—show this conflict is not just about Ukraine. It is a broader imperial project aimed at resurrecting Russia’s sphere of influence and undermining the West. Moscow has said this explicitly and repeatedly - yet the West still acts surprised. And whenever the West gives ground - Russia just takes it and asks for more, calling it "justified grievances". And it will just continue like that until Russia is stopped.
During the Cold War, NATO stationed 400,000 troops along the border with the Warsaw Pact. Such numbers were considered essential to credible deterrence. Today, we cannot expect to deter Russia effectively while self-imposing limitations - especially when Moscow imposes none on itself.
I agree with @kajakallas that the EU should become a beacon of freedom. So when do we start?
Here I offer six ways to actually light the beacon and step into the role history has chosen for us. Our response to the current uncertainty can be firm and long term. A thread.🧵1/17
Some Europeans still hope that Washington’s rhetoric is just noise, perhaps Trump and his team genuinely want to pressure allies into doing more, and once Europe proves itself, things will “go back to normal.”
But we shouldn't bet on that, and we don't have time to wait.🧵2/17
First: Get tough on internal disruptors.
Europe cannot act decisively if Hungary continues to hold the entire continent hostage. It’s time to invoke Article 7 against Hungary, suspend their veto and stop rewarding blackmail.🧵3/17
The Truman Doctrine, based on helping free peoples to resist autocrats, was US policy from 1947 until 2025. Now the Trump Doctrine seems to say the opposite—that US national security will benefit from helping autocrats fight against free people.🧵1/6
👇article link in comments
Why would Trump change the rules so radically? One theory is that he believes that the world should be ruled by strongmen, specifically himself, Putin, and Xi. In this world Trump can use force instead of diplomacy, he can justify grabbing Canada, Greenland and Panama.🧵2/6
Another theory is that Trump is trying to woo Russia away from China. This would require huge changes in US policy and also a miracle to convince China to let Russia go. It would have been simpler to arm Ukraine and neutralise Russia instead of trying to make friends.🧵3/6