Dr. Phil Metzger Profile picture
Feb 24 17 tweets 4 min read Read on X
About how the lunar environment makes everything tippier…

1) I’m sure the CLPS contractors know this and designed for it. My point is that the Moon does this to your hardware, so when things go wrong (as they do) then tipping happens more often than on Earth. /1
2/

2) There are different ways you can tip. For static stability, gravity makes no difference. You fall when you are so tilted that the center of gravity (cg) is outside of your footpad. I don’t know where the Nova-C has its cg, but crudely it could handle ~54 degrees tilt. Image
3/

3) But for dynamic stability, gravity does make a difference. Imagine your vehicle is accidentally moving sideways at touchdown with velocity v. The energy of that motion is (1/2)m v^2 where m is the vehicle’s mass. The vehicle will fall over if that energy exceeds…
4/…the potential energy needed to lift the cg over its highest point as the vehicle rotates up and over the outboard footpad. So in this rough picture, if the cg is a 1 unit of height, it will be lifted to 1.268 units of height as the vehicle rotates up & over the footpad. Image
5/ So the change in height of the cg is deltaH = (1.268 - 1) = 0.268 units. The potential energy is (m g DeltaH). Tipping over occurs if this potential energy is less than the sideways kinetic energy. Solving for v, the tipping limit is
v>Sqrt(2 g DeltaH)

So now let’s reduce g.
6/
Actually, let’s look at it this way:

Say it gets exposed to a sideways velocity v on the Moon that puts it barely at the edge of tipping. How wide would the footpads need to be on Earth (with 6x larger g) so that the same sideways would be at the edge of tipping?
7/ The DeltaH would be 1/6 as high for the same limit, so the factor of 6 and 1/6 cancel out. Solving the trigonometry, the footpads would have 0.3 units of width. Basically, straight down. If you built it with straight down legs, it would be pretty easy to tip, right? Image
8/ That’s how tippy it is on the Moon even with the wider legs. So on the Moon you have to design to keep the sideways velocities very low at touchdown, much lower than you would if landing the vehicle in Earth’s gravity.
9/ That doesn’t mean all kinds of tipping are the same as if the legs were straight down. If you land on a slope, the static stability doesn’t care about gravity so the wide legs make you stable on a slope the same as on Earth. This is only for the dynamic forces from unplanned
10/…motions at touchdown.

You can get unplanned motions several ways. (1) Navigation error. (2) Control failure. (3) Unlevel terrain causing the footpads to hit at different times, putting a torque on the vehicle.

IM was speculating that #3 happened. If you hit a rock and…
11/ it causes the vehicle to begin rotating slightly in the tilt direction, you rely on the width of the footpads to stop that rotation, but on the Moon it is like having footpads that are straight down, not spread out. So you have to keep the maximum possible rotation very low.
12/ You keep the rotation that would result from hitting a rock very low by having a descent rate at touchdown that is very low.

The whole mission is a tradeoff between risks though, and failures are usually from a combination of things happening together.
13/ You might have a small navigation error that gives you a residual sideways velocity at touchdown, which by itself is in limits, but made worse because blowing dust makes the navigation lasers less accurate at touchdown, which we can’t predict yet since we haven’t solved the…
14/…physics of blowing dust — so some guesswork went into designing the nav lasers and this is why we are doing the missions, to take the risks and solve the physics — and this may be combined with landing on a slight slope…
15/…that is amplified in a really unlucky way because a big rock ends up right under a footpad on the uphill side. So that footpad hits much sooner causing a torque that rotates the vehicle. The descent rate was designed to be low enough to handle that slope & rock by themselves
16/…but combined with the other errors you end up with more rotational/translational kinetic energy than the legs’ width was designed to handle in lunar gravity. You can be super conservative and design with even wider legs but it is a tradeoff of vehicle & mission requirements.
17/ I am sure the CLPS contractors know all this. My point is just that in lower gravity you will see some types of failures more often than you’ll see them on Earth, and tipping over is one of those things. This is why, IMO, two lunar landings in a row tipped over. /end

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More from @DrPhiltill

Feb 25
I could write a 50 page paper answering this :)

A few points in outline form only:

1) The rocket exhaust is expanding into vacuum, so viscosity breaks down, so the gas does not obey the Navier-Stokes equation, which is the basis of CFD (computational fluid dynamics) models. /1
2/ When I was at NASA, one of the things I was doing was writing solicitations to industry to write physics-based code to do CFD without Navier-Stokes. There are many ways to treat the fundamental physics (the Boltzmann Transport Equation) and they all work for different…
3/…approximations, but it is really hard to write a code that will handle the full range of conditions from dense gas inside the rocket nozzle all the way to rarefied gas on the Moon far from the rocket.

2) We don’t understand turbulence when the gas becomes rarefied.
Read 22 tweets
Feb 3
I finally submitted this paper to Icarus (planetary science journal). I split it into two papers: “Erosion rate of lunar soil under a landing rocket, part 1: identifying the rate-limiting physics” and “…part 2: benchmarking and predictions.” The breakthrough was in part 1.
1/N
2/ It took 8.5 months from the breakthrough while sitting at McDonalds until I got the paper done. 😭 I had to re-do it several times. 💀

I’m not keeping the info secret before publication, so I’ll go ahead and tell a little here.
3/ We tested jets of gas blowing soil in reduced gravity about 13 years ago. I did about 450 parabolas of lunar, Martian, and zero g, plus 2-g pullouts between parabolas where we did additional experiments. So we got 4 gravity levels.
Image
Image
Read 35 tweets
Jan 27
This is a fun and fascinating thread. I’ll add one thought. Latif says that some objects are dynamical and move about but the “regular” planets & moons aren’t that way, but really it’s just a matter of timescales. Everything changes orbits. 1st read Latif’s thread then mine…🙂/1
2/ An example of a moon that changed orbits: Triton. It is currently a moon of Neptune but previously it was a primary planet orbiting the Sun directly (albeit a small planet…a dwarf planet like Pluto). Neptune captured it! Image
3/ Another object that may or may not exist, which *if* it exists then *definitely* changed orbits a lot, is the so-called “planet 9” (terribly misnamed so I’ll call it Planet X or PX). PX is thought by some to exist beyond the Kuiper Belt yet to be the size of Neptune.
Read 19 tweets
Jan 23
This was a fun read but I have this response. The piece says that Turner’s Frontier Thesis is a strong motive of people who want to move civilization beyond Earth. But that’s not true. It is merely *adjacent* to the actual strong motives. Discarding it makes no difference. /1
2/ As the article explains. Turner’s thesis is that the US Western frontier created an open democratic society of self-reliant individuals with strong moral fiber. It says the western frontier values diffused back east to keep the rest of the US from falling into degeneracy, too.
3/ The article points out that the thesis has been discarded by historians for a number of reasons, and from reading this piece (which was my first intro to the topic) I agree with discarding it.

Also, it is true that you hear about the value of the frontier in space circles.
Read 31 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
Here’s the problem with trying to respond to Dr. Kirkpatrick’s request. Many technologists (myself included) believe we have reached the point where technology is changing so fast we cannot even guess what it will look like beyond a few decades. Any alien civilization that…/1
2/ …is so far ahead of us that they could travel between stars is way, way beyond the point that it becomes completely unpredictable. Therefore, any models we might create for what the tech could look like (how they might get here, how they might refuel…) are unconstrained.
3/ That’s part of what I wrote on why many scientists like myself are skeptical of UAP claims. The claims all sound like tech our limited brains might invent based by extrapolating a short distance beyond what humans can currently do. But aliens beyond the unpredictable point…
Read 9 tweets
Nov 22, 2023
Apologies for the crude markup (did this on my phone). Your eye can pick out these features better in the video than in a single snapshot, so watch the video and look for these annotated features (short thread). 1/N
Image
2/ Each nozzle has a plume (a jet) that is slightly mismatched relative to surrounding air pressure, so they oscillate in diameter, widening and narrowing to try to match pressure, but overshooting each time so they oscillate. These are the Mach diamonds.
3/ Each time the reach the minimum in the width, the gas is higher pressure and thus hotter, so the molecules radiate more light, creating the bright spot, aka Mach disks. They appear in rows in the 33 adjacent plumes. I numbered the rows and drew lines across them (yellow).
Read 9 tweets

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