Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 25, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Now that Ukraine has confirmed its use of a S-200/SA-5 Gammon.

We can discuss what this video tells us about the RuAF A-50 crew, the planes equipment and what shot it down.

First, it shows 80 plus seconds of irregular countermeasures release.

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80 seconds is neither consistent with a computer controlled electronic countermeasures system nor with Russian friendly fire incident as Buk, S-300, S-350, and S-400 missile travel to between Mach 6.7 to Mach 7 within their engagement envelope.

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We saw flares in the video, but it is certain that radar chaff was also released, but was unseen in the dark.

As a 5V28 missile of the S-200/SA-5 has a radar signature rivaling a Mig-25 Foxbat.

This extended A-50 countermeasures release _is_ consistent with a S-200
3/

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...engagement with radar warning receiver blaring at a VKS pilot that a 5N62M SQUARE PAIR was in its initial fine tracking to get accurate range and angle for a Mach 3 missile at over 250 km.

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The A-50 crew would start toggling expendable countermeasures when SQUARE PAIR radar dropped range finding modulation into pure 'monochromatic' carrier wave illumination.

The full S-200 engagement sequence is at the link ⬇️

5/ ausairpower.net/APA-Engagement…
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...and in the clipped text below

Various accounts say the VKS A-50 crew was climbing after take off at the time of the missile attack.

The crew should have dived - HARD - to get below the radar horizon of the S-200 5V28 missile shot and dumped most of the expendable

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...countermeasures in the final dozen seconds of the engagement to fill the seeker engagement basket with expendable decoys.

The A-50 crew did neither because it lacked both modern electronic warfare equipment and training.

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By way of comparison, the Late Cold War era EF-111A Ravens and EA-6B Prowler's had the S-200/SA-5's measure during Operation El Dorado Canyon in 1986.

Could there be something else going on here?

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Air Power Australia reported that the S-200 was exported to Belarus, Uzbekistan, Bulgaria, the Ukraine, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, India, North Korea, Libya, Syria, and more recently Iran.


9/ausairpower.net/APA-Legacy-SAM…
Poland did a digital upgrade to their S-200/SA-5 Gammon system before it was withdrawn from service.

It was reportedly in storage when the Russo-Ukrainian War began.

And Air Power Australia also reported that hybrid digitized interfaces & software

10/

researchgate.net/publication/35…
...were available for the S-300PMU2 Favorit / SA-20 Gargoyle & S-400 Triumf / SA-21 to control the S-200 Vega/SA-5 Gammon and its 5N62 Square Pair engagement radar so the latter would only illuminate/update the 5V28 missile.

See⬇️

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Given that Ukraine has been provided Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) Engagement Operations Center (EOC) from the USA.

It's likely IAMD was plugged into the SQUARE PAIR for an illumination/uplink only kill.

12/

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Think of it as another "Franken-SAM" with the S-200 in the same firing role as the proposed Patriot and S-300 Franken-SAM hybrid.

If only because there are more 5V28 missile available to shoot from East European NATO stocks than S-300's 5V55 missiles.

13/13 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jan 18
This is one of the 3 major strategic mistakes of the Zelenskyy Government.⬇️

Putin has shown better, more consistent, and more effective leadership in the strategic bombing of Ukrainian electrical infrastructure than Zelinskyy has in striking Russia's railways.

1/
Russia remains uniquely vulnerable to a focused drone strike campaign on it's electrical railway traction step down transformers.

Zelenskyy's leadership not only ignored hitting that unique Russian vulnerability since Feb. 2022.

See the figure below⬇️

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To give you an idea of the abject political-military failure of the Zelenskyy government in this regard one has to look at the industrial supply chain for those traction substations.

The Soviet Union had two major transformer factories: Tolyatti and Zaporozhye.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jan 16
This is a useful survey as far as it goes...but it is missing the key factor in the Iranian Revolution.

That is, _Food_Insecurity_.

Food insecurity is as much a cause of the Iranian Revolution as Regime hatred.

Iranian Revolution Food Insecurity🧵
1/
The predominant effect of a 1.4 million rial to the dollar hyperinflation combined with Regime Security Force public lockdown is the Iranian lower class has been set up to starve.

The lower class cannot go to work to get money to buy food.


2/
Nor can Iran's lower class budget the money it has to plan what food it can buy week to week because of inflation.

Iran's hyperinflation has gone on long enough that the Iranian lower class has traded everything it can barter, already, for food.



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Read 5 tweets
Jan 14
We really need to talk about the huge opportunity that Mullah financial corruption has given the Trump Administration to crash Iran's financial system with E-bombs, AKA non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse.

Wiping the financial records of failing Mullah banks in a revolution...

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...makes them very difficult to restore.

And surfacing those back up records makes them vulnerable to follow up E-bomb strikes.

Plus, how are the IRGC & Basij going to get paid?

2/
No one in their right mind thinks the IRGC & Basij will work for free, fighting a revolution without pay.

Mullah controlled bank electronics are needed to meet payroll.

The old USAF ALCM cruise missile was outfitted with the "CHAMP" E-Bomb for zorching enemy electronics.

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Jan 12
If you haven't read the substack article linked below, do so immediately and consider this:

When you stack secure & uninterrupted digital text communications to Mullah Regime corruption and currency hyperinflation...

...the Mullah Regime is doomed. It's a matter of when, not if.

1/
What jumped out for me about @shanaka86 substack article was the implications of secure digital text communications for the Maoist model of Revolutionary warfare.

See the @grok summary of Mao's 4-level revolutionary model below. ⬇️

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Maoist Level 1 & 2 warfare has never had the secure digital text communications Starlink provides.

This means a whole heck of a lot and shoots decades of counter-insurgency doctrine about controlling/blocking guerilla communications in the head.

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Read 14 tweets
Jan 10
Okay folks, we have to say at this point what is driving the uprising in Iran isn't the strength of the protests.

It is the WEAKNESS OF THE IRANIAN STATE. Basij commander Shoushtari's killing is the neon sign of Mullah-ocracy weakness. It had to be an inside job, reasons.

This means we need to talk about Russia's LAST PLANE OUT OF TEHRAN. 🧵
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Just as US military evacuations of Saigon and Kabul required securing the embassy & airport for evacuation.

Perhaps as soon as 48 hours from now, the Russian VDV will have to secure the Tehran airport to evacuate not only Iranian Mullah gold, but lots of Russian intel & technical experts.
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The Fall of Kabul made clear you not only need marines for ground security.

You also needed a USAF operation/maintenance squadron (-) for loading, refueling and operating air traffic control as you can't count on the locals to run the airport as the security situation collapses.
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Read 9 tweets
Jan 10
This:

>>Casualties are high on both sides

...argues that we are looking at a Regime Security Forces corruption-based THUG SHORTAGE.

In 2022 the IRGC & Basij had fire superiority & numbers to control situations when lethal force was used.

Now they are taking significant casualties.

1/
Where are the IRGC heavy weapons?

Where are the IRGC technicals with heavy machine guns to mow down crowds of protestors?

We should be seeing thousands of protestors shot, given the mobs seen on Tehran streets.

We are hearing numbers like ~217 in six Tehran hospitals.

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Just look how dense that protestor crowd is.

Just imagine the horror that one 12.7mm or 14.5 mm heavy machine gun technical could do to this crowd, given a willing IRGC crew.

3/
Read 12 tweets

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