Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 25, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Now that Ukraine has confirmed its use of a S-200/SA-5 Gammon.

We can discuss what this video tells us about the RuAF A-50 crew, the planes equipment and what shot it down.

First, it shows 80 plus seconds of irregular countermeasures release.

1/
80 seconds is neither consistent with a computer controlled electronic countermeasures system nor with Russian friendly fire incident as Buk, S-300, S-350, and S-400 missile travel to between Mach 6.7 to Mach 7 within their engagement envelope.

2/

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We saw flares in the video, but it is certain that radar chaff was also released, but was unseen in the dark.

As a 5V28 missile of the S-200/SA-5 has a radar signature rivaling a Mig-25 Foxbat.

This extended A-50 countermeasures release _is_ consistent with a S-200
3/

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...engagement with radar warning receiver blaring at a VKS pilot that a 5N62M SQUARE PAIR was in its initial fine tracking to get accurate range and angle for a Mach 3 missile at over 250 km.

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The A-50 crew would start toggling expendable countermeasures when SQUARE PAIR radar dropped range finding modulation into pure 'monochromatic' carrier wave illumination.

The full S-200 engagement sequence is at the link ⬇️

5/ ausairpower.net/APA-Engagement…
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...and in the clipped text below

Various accounts say the VKS A-50 crew was climbing after take off at the time of the missile attack.

The crew should have dived - HARD - to get below the radar horizon of the S-200 5V28 missile shot and dumped most of the expendable

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...countermeasures in the final dozen seconds of the engagement to fill the seeker engagement basket with expendable decoys.

The A-50 crew did neither because it lacked both modern electronic warfare equipment and training.

7/
By way of comparison, the Late Cold War era EF-111A Ravens and EA-6B Prowler's had the S-200/SA-5's measure during Operation El Dorado Canyon in 1986.

Could there be something else going on here?

8/
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Air Power Australia reported that the S-200 was exported to Belarus, Uzbekistan, Bulgaria, the Ukraine, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, India, North Korea, Libya, Syria, and more recently Iran.


9/ausairpower.net/APA-Legacy-SAM…
Poland did a digital upgrade to their S-200/SA-5 Gammon system before it was withdrawn from service.

It was reportedly in storage when the Russo-Ukrainian War began.

And Air Power Australia also reported that hybrid digitized interfaces & software

10/

researchgate.net/publication/35…
...were available for the S-300PMU2 Favorit / SA-20 Gargoyle & S-400 Triumf / SA-21 to control the S-200 Vega/SA-5 Gammon and its 5N62 Square Pair engagement radar so the latter would only illuminate/update the 5V28 missile.

See⬇️

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Given that Ukraine has been provided Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) Engagement Operations Center (EOC) from the USA.

It's likely IAMD was plugged into the SQUARE PAIR for an illumination/uplink only kill.

12/

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Think of it as another "Franken-SAM" with the S-200 in the same firing role as the proposed Patriot and S-300 Franken-SAM hybrid.

If only because there are more 5V28 missile available to shoot from East European NATO stocks than S-300's 5V55 missiles.

13/13 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 27
The F-35 Big/Expensive/Few Platform & Missile cult is in deep denial of this battlefield reality.

Air superiority below 2,000 feet/600 meters has been lost by crewed aircraft.

F-35's are irrelevant for the Mavic drone threat, save as a budget threat to the C-UAS procurement.
1/
The arrival of the Ukrainian Gogol-M, a 20-foot span fixed-wing aerial drone mothership, with over a 200km radius of action while carrying a payload of two 30km ranged attack drones under its wings, underlines the impact of low level airspace as a drone "avenue of approach."
2/
The Gogol-M flys low and slow, below ground based radar coverage like a helicopter.

It opens up headquarters, ground & air logistics in the operational depths to artificial intelligence aided FPV drone attacks.

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 27
This is the main example of one of the most unprofessional delusions held by the US Navalist wing of the F-35 Big/Expensive/Few platform and missile cult.

Russian fiber optic FPV's have a range of 50km - over the horizon!

1/
This means things as the Russians make these FPV's from Chinese commercial drone components in six figure and soon 7 figure (millions!) numbers.

This has huge implications for the impending Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

2/ Image
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When China invades Taiwan, the 1st move will be occupying the small islands around Formosa (left) and making them drone, GMLRS & HQ9 SAM bases.

50 km circles around all those small islands cover almost all the invasion beaches (map right) with PLA 50km fiber optic FPV's.

3/ Image
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Read 5 tweets
Jun 24
It isn't just a matter of pre-2023 sniper tactics being obsolete.

Every patrolling tactic taught by the US Army Infantry and Ranger schools are obsolete when you can "just send a drone. "

1/3
Drones simply don't have ground line of sight issues like soldiers do.

Drones can see in more of the electromagnetic spectrum than humans.

And the US Army refuses to buy enough small drones (1 m +) to train their troops to survive on the drone dominated battlefield.🤢🤮

2/3
"Just send a drone" is the proper tactic for almost everything a 21st century infantryman does from patrolling, raiding enemy positions, sniping and setting up forward observation posts.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 23
Please note that Iran _ISN'T_ shooting down IDF drones over Tehran⬇️

There are technological reasons for that.

1/2
The odds are heavily in favor of the IDF having parked Hermes drones with "Gorgon Stare" technology over Tehran to hunt Iranian senior government officials.

2/2 Image
P.S.

This is the wiki on Gorgon Stare technology.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorgon_St…Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 22
The following photo captures from WW2 bomb damage analysis documents are to calibrate people's eyes as to what to expect from the Fordow strike.

The MOP crater is going to be something called a "Camouflet" because the MOP will dig so deep before exploding.

1/6 Image
The problem with this US strike is the rock density in the Fordow area may be too much for the GBU-57/B MOP (See Grok below)

Unless there is really good intelligence showing a weakness in Fordow or...

2/6
grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt…
...this MOP strike had several bombs with the same aim point and a timer setting for simultaneous detonation. Good results will be difficult.

WW2 testing showed hard crystallized limestone was a pain for semi-armor piercing bombs dropped from 16,000 feet to penetrate.

3/6 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 22
Well, it wasn't a TACO moment.

This US strike on the Iranian nuclear program was paddy cake.

The Iranian smart move here is screaming a lot, doing little and waiting for a Democratic US President to build nukes.

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The dumbest of dumb moves by the Iranians would be laying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

That was what set off Operation Praying Mantis in the late 1980's which sank 1/2 of Iran's navy in a day.

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If the Iranians choose doing something dumb...

...US has positioned aerial assets in the Mid-East that are sufficient for a modestly large aerial bombardment effort for ~100+ tactical fighters⬇️

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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