Thread by @Inkvisiit

Two years of Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is an overview thread on the situation at the front and deployment of UkrAF and RuAF forces as of 24th FEB 2024. Attached is high resolution image of our Order of Battle tracking map. Zoom in for more detail. 1/

Ukrainian forces along the frontline are organized in three “Operational-Strategic Group of Forces” (OGS): Odessa (O), Tavriya (T) and Khortytsia (K). 2/

OSG Odessa is tasked with conducting raids and harassment across the Dnipro River and prevention of Russian incursions in its area of operations (AO) stretching roughly between cities of Odessa and Zaporizhzhia. 3/

OSG Odessa has roughly 11-12 Brigades = equivalent of approximately four divisions (as depicted in the map attached to tweet#2). Most of these are light infantry forces (TDF and NG) reinforced by four Marine Brigades). 4/

OSG Tavriya’s AO is roughly between the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Horlivka. On its AO there are currently four different directions with ongoing heavy battles: Tokmak-Orikhiv, Velyka Novosilka, Novomykhailivka – Marinka and Avdiivka. 5/

OSG Tavriya has approximately 35-40 maneuver brigades + artillery units. Roughly 11-12 “division equivalents”. Ukrainian reserves are difficult to estimate, but likely consist of 3-4 brigades and resting elements from units deployed to the frontlines. 6/

OSG Khortytsia’s AO spans the rest of the active frontline roughly from the City of Horlivka to Kupiansk and likely includes the rest of Kharkiv Oblast. Here the current hotspots are Bakhmut, Kreminna-Lyman and Kupiansk axes. 7/

OSG Khortysia has approximately 42-52 maneuver brigades or roughly 14-17 “division equivalents”. It also likely has the most reserves, albeit likely consisting of units recovering and refitting for previous frontline deployments. 8/

Russian forces are divided into four OSGs: “Dnepr”, “East“, “Centre” and “West”. They are further divided into roughly 10 army sized operational groupings. 9/

Dnepr OSG is currently the strongest of the Russian OSGs with approximately 12-13 division equivalents. It is further divided into 18th Army grouping facing the Dnipro River and 58th Army Grouping on Zaporizhzhia direction. 10/

18thArmy grouping has two principal maneuver divisions: 70th MRD and 104th Air Assault Division which are currently concentrated against the Krynky bridgehead. Additionally, there are plethora of various brigades and territorial motor rifle regiments. 11/

Quality of the most Russian forces deployed along the Dnipro River is at best questionable, but there is considerable quantity of reserves which could be deployed on other sections of frontline, should it be necessary. 12/

On the southern front Russia has the 58th Army OG facing Zaporizhzhia – Orikhiv with strong concentration of forces: two VDV divisions (7thand 76th) and two motor rifle divisions (19th and 42nd). 58th OG is approximately 5-6 division equivalents in total. 13/

“East” or “Eastern” OSG has strong 5th Army OG facing Velyka Novosilka and a weaker 35th Army grouping near Polohy. Altogether 5-6 division equivalents. 127th MRD represents the East OSGs principal maneuver force, currently engaged near Velyka Novosilka. 14/

“Centre OSG has approximately 17-19 division equivalents, divided into three operational groupings: The 8th Army grouping currently engaged in Novomykhailivka – Marinka sector, one grouping around Avdiivka and one engaged in Bakhmut. 15/

The 8thArmy OG has approximately 3-4 division equivalents, with elements from 20thGMRD and 150th MRD making up the bulk of the fighting force in this sector. Avdiivka grouping equates to roughly 5-6 division equivalents 16/

And Bakhmut OG has 7-8. In the Bakhmut AO the bulk of Russian forces are composed of elements from two VDV airborne divisions (98th and 106th), both of which have recently received a third regiment in addition to their original two. 17/

“West” OSG is likewise divided into three operational groupings: 20th Army on Kreminna-Lyman axis, 1st Guards Tank Army (1GTA) on Svatove-Verkhnia Duvanka sector and the 6th Army on Kupiansk axis. In total it has 13-14 division equivalents. 18/

I already did an earlier thread on 1 GTA’s deployment and posture: I wont go much further into them here, other than to point out that it is possible that some elements of the 1GTA are being redeployed on Lyman axis. 19/

https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1757451291419189309so

The 20th Army grouping is one of the hardest to assess accurately. The Kreminna-Lyman axis in general seems to be highly crowded with various units, some possibly being redeployed elsewhere and others coming in as mentioned above. 20/

Bulk of Russian forces in this sector are from the 3rd, 67th and 144thMotor Rifle Divisions. With elements from 2nd GMRD and 47th GTD possibly being sent in to reinforce them (low confidence). 21/

6thArmy grouping is one of the weakest, with principal maneuver formations of 21st and 138th motor rifle brigades backed up by multiple territorial motor rifle regiments. I will be returning to each AO in greater detail at some point in the near future. 22/

I will finally wrap this thread up with some disclaimers and mentions: all units on the maps marked with “In reserve” as well as all higher headquarters are placed with readability in mind and do not represent actual accurate locations of these forces. 23/

All Ukrainian frontline units are based on geolocated footage and are mostly sourced from @Geoconfirmed. Same goes for all Russian units with timestamps without (*). All timestamps with one or more asterisks (*) are from secondary sources like CDS or Mashovets. 24/

I have also relied heavily on work done by @UAControlMap. In general, I have attempted to use data only from the past three months (DEC23-FEB24). The maps are very much a work in progress and likely have some units missing. 25/

@UAControlMap Finally, I would like to thank @wihurinrahasto whose funding has made compiling the presented data possible. Follow the rest of our team on @Black_BirdGroup and our frontline situation map can be found here: 26/26scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…

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