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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 27

Macron hints that the West might consider deploying troops to Ukraine and stressed the need for delivering deep-strike capabilities and increasing the pace and volume of weapons support for Ukraine, procuring weapons within Europe and globally

Quotes and commentary: 1/

Macron: "We discussed this. Currently, there's no consensus on sending troops. However, we shouldn't rule anything out for the future. We'll do everything possible to prevent Russia from winning this war." 2/

That’s a real change of rhetoric from “never boots on the ground” to “there is no consensus” and “we can’t rule it out”

The truth is that eventually there will be NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 26

NYTimes writes about a tight relationship between the CIA and Ukrainian intelligence

It is no surprise there is a relationship, but its structure and value for the US is indeed a revelation

Here are hey points in the article and Ukrainian reaction to it 1/

I'll start with the Ukrainian reaction. There is no official position, but there is a commentary of the former head of the Ukrainian intelligence Kondratyuk during which tenure the relationship started 2/

Quote: Working with the CIA has been a two-way street. Initially, convincing them of Ukraine's crucial importance was tough 3/

Read 18 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 25

Zelensky reveals Ukrainian casualty numbers: 31K Ukrainian soldiers have died in this war, and 180K Russians

He also addresses the lack of military aid, Polish blockade, reasons for a failed offensive, and end game scenarios for the war 1/

On Russia offensive: The coming months will be tough. Russia is planning another offensive for the end of May-summer. But the US presidential election will be the critical point 2/

On the end of the war: Zelensky I believes this year will determine how the war ends. He implies that if Russia gains more territory and leverage, it could delay the war's end or result in a less favorable outcome for Ukraine [heavy sign, a diplomatic understatement] 3/

Read 13 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 25

I am angry. Ukrainians harvest grain under missiles and artillery, while saboteurs in Poland spill it on the ground

Today 160 tons of grain are lost.

The grain was transiting to Gdansk to be shipped internationally. No threat to Polish farmers whatsoever. Pure damage to us

But I think we Ukrainians have to keep our cool. Poland has been a true friend to us throughout this war, accepting millions of refugees, providing weapons and funding.

Whoever and whatever is behind the current conflict with Polish farmers, we will find a resolution 2/

But, still, what is going on? Here is the most recent situation

On February 20th, Polish farmers initiated a nationwide strike, blocking roads, key communication nodes, and border crossings with Ukraine at nearly 200 locations across the country.

This is a huge escalation 3/

Read 18 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 25

The lessons we learned in the two years since the Russian invasion

1. Russia can be stopped by force.

Evidence: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson… even Bakhmut and Avdiivka. In Avdiivka, a small 12 sq miles suburb of Donetsk, Russia lost more troops than in Afghanistan 1/

2. The West is afraid of Russia and doesn’t have an effective response

Evidence: fears of escalation, delays in supplying aid and weapons, excuses not to provide more advanced weapons, defeatist “real politics” arguments 2/

3. The key Russian strength is its complete disregard to the value of human life.

Evidence: I am not even sure that I should say anything here, but Bucha, Mariupol, and 400K of their own losses that I have a reason to believe are an accurate number.
3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 24

On the second anniversary of the Russian invasion, NYTimes writes that Western sanctions haven't worked, weapons from allies are running low, and pressure may build on Kyiv to seek a settlement.

The first is wrong, the second is true, and the third is delusional 1/

NYTimes concludes the piece, defensively, with a quote from a former official that “it is better to admit mistakes and chart a new path forward rather than to engage in empty self-congratulation.”

I agree with the quote, but the implied conclusion is as empty 2/

The point NYTimes is making is that Ukraine should seek peace with Russia and the allies [must] pressure [stubborn] Ukraine to accept this reality. 3/

Read 15 tweets

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