Defense Minister Gallant’s announcement this evening he will only agree to pass a law on IDF draft with agreement of all the parties of the emergency coalition is the biggest political threat to Netanyahu since he returned to office. It creates an impossible situation for the PM>
The government has only weeks to pass a law regulating the exemption of yeshiva students from the draft. If they don’t table a law, the Supreme Court will force the Defense Ministry to start drafting them. But there’s no way Benny Gantz can agree the blanket exemptions remain >
Gallant’s announcement was coordinated with Gantz. If they oppose the law, and there’s no law they and the Haredi parties can agree on, it’s hard to see how the coalition musters the votes. It still has 63 votes without Gallant and Gantz’s party, but other Likudniks will rebel >
If a law isn’t tabled and the IDF has to start press-ganging yeshiva students (it doesn’t want to, but it won’t have a choice), the Haredi parties will have to leave the government. There isn’t a compromise to be found here. Without the Haredim, Netanyahu loses his majority >
The brilliance of the Gallant-Gantz move is that while a large majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to leave, they’re not so eager for a wartime election. But an early election being held because the Haredim refuse to serve in the war will likely be popular with most Israelis >
Holding an early election because Netanyahu’s allies refuse to serve is a dream scenario for anyone who wants to replace him. There is no issue in Israel right now with a broader consensus upon which to bring down the government. Even during a war.
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