Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

Key insights from our analysis (Complete report accessible on the website provided in my bio) concerning the post-Avdiivka situation, fortifications, and anticipations.

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2/ While some argue that the withdrawal was timely, our assessment suggests that an earlier retreat could have reduced losses. Some interviewed participants reported not receiving official orders and chose to retreat at their discretion due to the deteriorating tactical situation

3/ After the fall of Avdiivka, Russian forces continued to advance. As of this analysis, settlements like Sjeverne, Lastochkyne, and Stepove are now under Russian control. Others, including Orlivka and Berdychi, remain contested as of February 27, 2024.

4/ As shown in the satellite image, the presence of fires and scorch marks extending beyond Orlivka signifies a rapid effort by Russian forces to disrupt communications with the settlement and cause harm to defenders. Additional reports suggest that Semenivka is targeted by KABs

5/ This assertion is also backed by FIRMS data from NASA, which identifies and maps "thermal anomalies" on the ground. Utilizing this data, we have created a visual representation of the image, depicting "thermal anomalies" like fires or explosions over the past 24 hours.

6/ Frontelligence Insight notes an otable deficiency of robust fortifications, involving concrete and wooden structures on the Ukrainian side. Reports consistently indicate that combat-involved brigades are assigned to construct these defenses in their rear areas.

7/ Constructing strategic defensive positions requires a multifaceted and professional approach beyond military efforts alone. Essential needs encompass specialized equipment like bulldozers, excavators, cranes, concrete production, trucks, wood, and logistics.

8/. Addressing this issue demands political will and the involvement of national leadership to mobilize civilian resources. Additionally, joint efforts with the Ministry of Defense are necessary to secure the resources needed for the procurement of such a serious project

9/ The Near Prospects

Our team observes that due to relatively dry weather, the fields are rapidly drying up, enabling the advance of Russian forces. Contrary to expectations that the muddy season might impede their progress, unfortunately, that is not the case at this moment.

10/ Russian forces suffered disproportionately high losses during the assault on Avdiivka. According to our team's geospatial observations, the estimated number of lost vehicles by the Russian side exceeds ~300. OSINT analyst @naalsio26 suggests that the number is over ~600.

11/ The quality of new recruits in the Russian army continues to deteriorate. As previously reported, in the final phase of the battle for Avdiivka, a group of POWs captured in February had been recruited to the Russian military in mid-January.

12/ The situation for Ukrainian forces remains highly challenging, characterized by delayed mobilization, inadequate fortification construction, missteps during the 2023 campaign, and notably, a critical failure of partners to deliver promised ammunition despite prior commitments

13/ Ukraine is likely to face additional territorial losses, especially in areas gained during the summer of 2023 and in proximity to Donetsk. However, we do not anticipate the front collapse, as Russians allocate resources disproportionately, even for relatively minor gains.

14/ Despite trying to capitalize on the most favorable situation since 2022, they lack the necessary scale to generate a strategic collapse. A situation could still be favorable for Ukraine if the West provides substantial military aid to back domestic mobilization efforts.

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