All eyes on #Putin speech and #Transnistria today.
But something else is happening in Moscow:
+10 Palestinian groups - including #Hamas & Islamic Jihad (PIJ) - are hosted by Russia for mediation talks.
What's #Russia up to? How's it linked to #Ukraine? And can it succeed? 🧵/1
But something else is happening in Moscow:
+10 Palestinian groups - including #Hamas & Islamic Jihad (PIJ) - are hosted by Russia for mediation talks.
What's #Russia up to? How's it linked to #Ukraine? And can it succeed? 🧵/1
The intra-Palestinian meeting in Moscow has precedent
Russia's hosted such meetings in the past, most recently Feb 2019
Russia has long lamented the US' "monopolization" of the peace process & tried to carve out a niche for itself: mediating among the disunited Palestinians/2
Russia's hosted such meetings in the past, most recently Feb 2019
Russia has long lamented the US' "monopolization" of the peace process & tried to carve out a niche for itself: mediating among the disunited Palestinians/2
That Hamas & PIJ sit at the table is also no surprise:
Russia has never declared either a terrorist organization
#Hamas delegations have frequented Moscow since 2006
Since Oct 7, Hamas reps have been to Moscow 3x - this will be the 4th visit - a slap into #Israel's face /3
Russia has never declared either a terrorist organization
#Hamas delegations have frequented Moscow since 2006
Since Oct 7, Hamas reps have been to Moscow 3x - this will be the 4th visit - a slap into #Israel's face /3
Why is Russia hosting this meeting now?
First, this is a continuation of #Russia's pro-Palestinian posturing since Oct 7.
Russia's slowness and reluctance to call out Hamas' terrorism broke with historical precedent, as I showed here: /4
First, this is a continuation of #Russia's pro-Palestinian posturing since Oct 7.
Russia's slowness and reluctance to call out Hamas' terrorism broke with historical precedent, as I showed here: /4
https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1713954131042242922
Since Oct 7, Russia has:
-accused the West of double standards re: #Ukraine vs. #Gaza
-postured as the defender of Palestinians at the UN
thereby tapping into powerful grievances over Gaza worldwide & cynically exploiting the war for its own ends: /5nytimes.com/2023/10/26/opi…
-accused the West of double standards re: #Ukraine vs. #Gaza
-postured as the defender of Palestinians at the UN
thereby tapping into powerful grievances over Gaza worldwide & cynically exploiting the war for its own ends: /5nytimes.com/2023/10/26/opi…
The temptation to exploit anti-Western sentiments over #Gaza has been so powerful that Russia has been willing to sacrifice its (once good) relations w/#Israel
These relations have been very rocky since Oct 7 & we probably haven't reached the bottom: /6
These relations have been very rocky since Oct 7 & we probably haven't reached the bottom: /6
https://twitter.com/milanczerny/status/1762734667776581844
Second, #Russia is hosting the intra-Palestinian meeting to stay relevant in the unfolding regional diplomacy.
The US has been highly active (toward ceasefire, hostage release deal, "day after") - at the highest level - and Russia doesn't want to cede the scene entirely. /7
The US has been highly active (toward ceasefire, hostage release deal, "day after") - at the highest level - and Russia doesn't want to cede the scene entirely. /7
But what can Russia achieve?
The Palestinian reps now in Moscow are senior (Mousa Abu Marzouk for #Hamas, Azzam al-Ahmad for #Fatah etc.), but they're not the key decision-makers.
Also, Russia's not hosting this at the highest level - Deputy FM Bogdanov is involved... /8
The Palestinian reps now in Moscow are senior (Mousa Abu Marzouk for #Hamas, Azzam al-Ahmad for #Fatah etc.), but they're not the key decision-makers.
Also, Russia's not hosting this at the highest level - Deputy FM Bogdanov is involved... /8
...but there won't be any meeting with #Putin.
Clearly, this is not a Russian priority.
Russia also lacks leverage. At the last intra-Palestinian mtg, Russia failed to get the groups to a joint declaration
It can't offer the Palestinians econ. incentives (unlike Saudi/UAE) /9
Clearly, this is not a Russian priority.
Russia also lacks leverage. At the last intra-Palestinian mtg, Russia failed to get the groups to a joint declaration
It can't offer the Palestinians econ. incentives (unlike Saudi/UAE) /9
That said, Moscow's doing sth. no one else can/wants to do: bring Hamas & PIJ - the #Iran-backed groups - to the table
Some Arab media also rumored that the resignation of Palestinian PM Shtayyeh earlier this week might have been timed so as to give the Moscow talks a chance /10
Some Arab media also rumored that the resignation of Palestinian PM Shtayyeh earlier this week might have been timed so as to give the Moscow talks a chance /10
I doubt that.
Still, #Russia says the talks aim at reaching a *general agreement* on the formation of a unified Palestinian technocratic government
But even if they succeed: #Israel's made clear that any Palestinian entity containing elements of Hamas/PIJ is simply a no-go. /11
Still, #Russia says the talks aim at reaching a *general agreement* on the formation of a unified Palestinian technocratic government
But even if they succeed: #Israel's made clear that any Palestinian entity containing elements of Hamas/PIJ is simply a no-go. /11
What does the region think?
The Arab states - criticising the US for its one-sided backing of #Israel & long agonising over the US' purported unreliability as an ally - welcome a greater Russian & Chinese role in regional diplomacy. As a matter of rhetoric. /12
The Arab states - criticising the US for its one-sided backing of #Israel & long agonising over the US' purported unreliability as an ally - welcome a greater Russian & Chinese role in regional diplomacy. As a matter of rhetoric. /12
But when push comes to shove, all eyes are on Washington
In my various engagements with interlocutors from the Gulf/Egypt recently, no one is seriously looking toward Moscow to diffuse tensions
And Israel will likely reject any Russian mediation role toward the "day after" /13
In my various engagements with interlocutors from the Gulf/Egypt recently, no one is seriously looking toward Moscow to diffuse tensions
And Israel will likely reject any Russian mediation role toward the "day after" /13
Where does this leave us?
#Russia will continue -without spending much pol. capital- to signal its backing for the Palestinians
But more importantly: whatever diplomatic processes materialize (Israel-Palestinian or regional), Russia will have the back of #Iran & its partners/14
#Russia will continue -without spending much pol. capital- to signal its backing for the Palestinians
But more importantly: whatever diplomatic processes materialize (Israel-Palestinian or regional), Russia will have the back of #Iran & its partners/14
As @HamidRezaAz & I just argued, in light of its war against #Ukraine, Russia "will try to throw wrenches into any coming diplomatic efforts that would smell of American success or would seek to sideline the axis of resistance."
/ENDforeignaffairs.com/russian-federa…
/ENDforeignaffairs.com/russian-federa…
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