Thread by @ulrichspeck

It's simple: Putin is dead-set to destroy Ukraine as an independent state and nation. Whether he achieves this through war or Minsk-like agreements, is secondary for him. Of course he prefers a less costly agreement.

https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1743975556289269913

Each agreement for Putin is fine as long as it makes sure that Ukraine cannot resist to Russian pressure in the future.

If there will an agreement, more or less explicit, on a new status quo, the one thing that matters is that Russia can't attack or intimidate Ukraine again.

One way to achieve this is by "arming Ukraine to the teeth", ultimately even getting a nuclear weapon to guarantee the existence of Ukraine.

The other option is that the West credibly promises to defend Ukraine by threatening Russia with war when it attacks Ukraine again, including extended nuclear deterrence. All that can't be done credibly by Europeans alone, only by the US. This option is called Nato membership.

At the moment, Ukraine is on neither of both paths. The West is not ready to make Ukraine a Nato member and to provide credible guarantees for the time in between. This is unlikely to change in the near- and mid-term.

At the same time, the West has not started to "arm Ukraine to the teeth", by systematically building up Ukraine's armed forces; there are some vague plans but no strong commitments and not much action.

The West has no plan, the attitude is very much wait and see. Or may be cut a deal with Russia and all will be fine again -- repeating the mistake of Minsk II which led to the all-out attack in February 2022.

Without a clear plan, without clear commitment, the West sends the signal to Russia that it is not fully committed to Ukraine's existence. Attempts to create "strategic ambiguity" that come out of the blue don't really change that.

Only when Europeans -- the US might not be part of the coalition after US elections -- commit themselves seriously to building up Ukraine's armed forces, Putin will start to believe that he can't achieve his goal to destroy Ukraine as a state and a nation. We're not there yet.

Helping Ukraine saving itself against Russia is currently the most important European security interest. Only when Russia fails in Ukraine it may change course and not become an imperialist, militarized power that threatens Europe for the decades to come.

European countries, by arming Ukraine, can stop the new hot-cold war that is breeding by asserting the European peace order -- which is based on safe borders and the principle that countries can't just attack peaceful neighbors at will.

The investment and the risk by doing this today is minuscule compared to what is likely to happen if Europeans fail to give Ukraine the weapons and ammunitions it needs.

At the same time, Europeans must move towards a posture of containment, defense and deterrence elsewhere, denying Russia systematically opportunities to increase its influence and power.

To sum up: Ukraine is the place where the future character of the European order is being decided.

Russia has gone full-in, Europeans beyond the arc of containment (Northern Europe and Central Europe) are still hesitating, which prolongs the war and increases the risks.