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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Mar 3, 2024 • 15 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Incredible stat: the 1% of male adoptees with biological parents who had three+ convictions were responsible for 30% of the sample's convictions.

Crime is very concentrated. Image
Source: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
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More: just go search. I've posted all about this.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
May 3
Pierre Guillaume Frédéric le Play argued that France's early fertility decline was driven by its inheritance reforms, where estates had to be split up equally to all of the kids, including the girls.

There's likely something to this!🧵 Image
For reference, the French Revolution ushered in a number of egalitarian laws.

A major example of these had to do with inheritance, and in particular with partibility.

In some areas of France, there was partible inheritance, and in others, it was impartible. Image
Partible inheritance refers to inheritance spread among all of a person's heirs, sometimes including girls, sometimes not.

Impartible inheritance on the other hands refers to the situation where the head of an estate can nominate a particular heir to get all or a select portion. Image
Read 11 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 1
In terms of their employment, religion, and sex, people who joined the Nazi party started off incredibly distinct from the people in their communities.

It's only near the end of WWII when they started resembling everyday Germans. Image
Early on, a lot of this dissimilarity is due to hysteresis.

Even as the party was growing, people were selectively recruited because they were often recruited by their out-of-place friends, and they were themselves out-of-place.

It took huge growth to break that. Image
And you can see the decline of fervor based on the decline of Nazi imagery in people's portraits.

And while this is observed by-and-large, it's not observed among the SS, who had a consistently higher rate of symbolic fanaticism. Image
Read 5 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Apr 23
I simulated 100,000 people to show how often people are "thrice-exceptional": Smart, stable, and exceptionally hard-working.

I've highlighted these people in red in this chart: Image
If you reorient the chart to a bird's eye view, it looks like this: Image
In short, there are not many people who are thrice-exceptional, in the sense of being at least +2 standard deviations in conscientiousness, emotional stability (i.e., inverse neuroticism), and intelligence.

To replicate this, use 42 as the seed and assume linearity and normality
Read 7 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Apr 22
I would like to live in a high-trust society.

The decline of trust is something worth caring about, and reversing it is something worth doing.

We should not have to live constantly wondering if we're being lied to or scammed. Trust should be possible again.
I don't know how we go about regaining trust and promoting trustworthiness in society.

It feels like there's an immense level of toleration of untrustworthy behavior from everyone: scams are openly funded; academics congratulate their fraudster peers; all content is now slop.
What China's doing—corruption crackdowns and arresting fraudsters—seems laudable, and I think the U.S. and other Western nations should follow suit.

Fraud leads to so many lives being lost and so much progress being halted or delayed.

I'm close to being single-issue on this.
Read 6 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Apr 21
British fertility abruptly fell after one important court case: the Bradlaugh-Besant trial🧵

You can see its impact very visibly on this chart: Image
The trial involved Annie Besant (left) and Charles Bradlaugh (right).

These two were atheists—a scandalous position at the time!—and they wanted to promote free-thinking about practically everything that upset the puritanical society of their time. Image
They were on trial because they tried to sell a book entitled Fruits of Philosophy.

This was an American guide to tons of different aspects of family planning, and included birth control methods, some of which worked, others which did not.Image
Read 14 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Apr 17
One of the really interesting studies on the psychiatric effects of maltreatment is Danese and Widom's from Nat. Hum. Behavior a few years ago.

They found that only subjective (S), rather than objective (O) maltreatment predicted actually having a mental disorder.Image
Phrased differently, if people subjectively believed they were abused, that predicted poor mental health, but objectively recorded maltreatment only predicted it if there was also a subjective report.

Some people might 'simply' be more resilient than others.
I think this finding makes sense.

Consider the level of agreement between prospective (P-R) and retrospective (R-P) reports of childhood maltreatment.

A slim majority of people recorded being mistreated later report that they were mistreated when asked to recall. Image
Read 6 tweets

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