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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Mar 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka. Geolocated footage published on March 1 and 2 indicates that Russian forces advanced in central and eastern Orlivka. Geolocated footage published on March 2 indicates that Russian forces also advanced in Tonenke. (1/4)
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2/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of Tonenke, but other Russian milbloggers denied claims that Russian forces controlled the settlement. Image
3/ Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced near Stepove (northwest of Avdiivka), Novobakhmutivka (northwest of Avdiivka), and Nevelske (southwest of Avdiivka), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.
4/ Positional engagements continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Semenivka, and Stepove; west of Avdiivka near Tonenke; and southwest of Avdiivka near Vodyane, Nevelske, and Pervomaiske. isw.pub/UkrWar030224

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 4
NEW: China and Turkey continue to pursue their own negotiation platforms for a settlement in Ukraine, which the Kremlin is exploiting to further its own information operations aimed at discouraging continued international support for Ukraine. 🧵(1/4)


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2/ Russian officials continue to falsely blame Ukraine & the West for the lack of peace negotiations between Russia & Ukraine, despite numerous public Russian statements suggesting or explicitly stating that Russia is not interested in good faith peace negotiations with Ukraine.
3/ ISW continues to assess that any Russian statements suggesting that Russia is or always has been interested in peace negotiations...
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 3
Key Takeaways🧵(1/4)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly rejected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent offer to host a negotiation platform for Russia and Ukraine.

Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea apparently paused as of mid-Feb. 2024.⬇️
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2/ Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used the Antalya Diplomatic Forum to promote Kremlin narratives about Moldova, likely to set conditions for potential Kremlin hybrid operations that aim to destabilize Moldova and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union (EU).
3/ Senior Russian officials acknowledged Armenia’s reduced participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), marking a notable shift in Russian official rhetoric that previously sought to ignore Armenian efforts to distance itself from the CSTO.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 2
More Key Takeaways from the March 1 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (🧵1/4):

Kremlin officials met with leaders of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia and emphasized Russia’s support for Gagauzia against perceived Moldovan “oppression” on March 1.
2/ Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to disparage Russian elites in his February 29 Federal Assembly speech, more closely aligning himself with the veteran and military community and drawing praise from ultranationalist milbloggers.
3/ Ukraine and the Netherlands signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on March 1.

Russian authorities will likely use annual combat training for Russian reservists to support crypto-mobilization efforts.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 1
NEW: Ukrainian officials are reportedly concerned about the possibility of significant Russian territorial gains in summer 2024 in the event of continued delays in Western security assistance. 🧵(1/10)


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2/ Bloomberg reported that internal Ukrainian assessments state that Russian advances along the frontline could gain significant momentum by summer 2024 unless Ukraine’s partners increase provisions of artillery ammunition.
3/ Bloomberg reported that sources close to Ukrainian leadership stated that Ukraine expects Russian forces to decide between continuing their current focus on gradual tactical advances and preparing for a larger breakthrough attempt in summer 2024...
Read 10 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Feb 29
NEW: Palestinian militias have claimed at least 92 attacks targeting Israeli forces in Zaytoun, southeastern Gaza City, between February 19 and February 28. 🧵(1/4) Image
2/ This high attack rate involving at least seven Palestinian militias using sophisticated military capabilities indicates that Palestinian fighters have retained military capacity in southern Gaza City despite two Israeli clearing operations there.
3/ The militias likely infiltrated into previously cleared areas of southern Gaza City from the uncleared central Gaza Strip. The militias also likely reactivated dormant cells after the Israelis decreased the size of the IDF contingent in the northern Strip.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Feb 28
Russian authorities are reportedly systematizing the adoption of deported Ukrainian children in Russia. 🧵 (1/5)
2/ Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on February 27 that Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.
3/ The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture & reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.”
Read 5 tweets

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