Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 3 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I just don't understand how it's possible that Israel got to this point of the negotiations and never got a list. It doesn't make sense. It's like a lot of things that don't make sense about this war. For instance, remember how reports claimed Sinwar had lost contact with Hamas commanders and battalions...and at the same time we were being told that the hostage talks were ongoing...how can you have talks when the people holding the hostages are not even in contact with their leaders? It's obviously all orchestrated from the country that hosts Hamas, and one has to wonder...who is really in charge and driving this whole thing.Image
The war between Israel and Hamas always asks us to suspend disbelief. Like we're told "you see there were increased pressure for a hostage deal over the last month and so Israel finally asked for a list of the hostages that are alive"...really why wasn't that a condition to even have the talks?
Now here's the thing...imagine this was a cartel and a cartel kidnapped 240 Americans or Europeans or something in some country...and then the cartel leadership was hosted by a western ally...and so the host country was brokering talks with the cartel...and then you were told five months after it happened that despite months of talks that actually now was the time to get a list from the cartel of who is alive?
See, it makes no sense. Hamas in Gaza is supposedly defeated in many fronts...but it still holds the hostages...even if its leaders aren't always in touch with their commanders...and YET...the host country of Hamas is brokering talks and basically running the plays for Hamas...and the US and Israel show up at the talks and despite months of this...someone finally says "you know can we get a list of who is actually alive"?
It will never make sense because nothing makes sense in all this. One day the public is told that talks are almost near finishing and here is the 40 people who will be released...but then the next day "well we don't even have a list of who is alive"...well how can you have talks about something when the people being discussed may not be alive?
Hamas also already did this...during the first talks it was supposed to release women and children (elderly women and mothers and children actually)...and they pretended they couldn't "find" all of them...and played Israel along and then didn't release the Bibas family and did this macabre thing of claiming the mother and two children had perished.
But instead of holding Hamas to account...Israel then did this weird deal for medical aid for the hostages with zero verification...and of course the medical aid was never given to them...but no problem...keep trusting Hamas.
So now we get to March 3...and we get this new story from Hamas that they can't turn over a list of names...that they require concessions just for the names? Why is Hamas always seeming to be in charge of these talks via its host country that seems to advise it on this?
Something doesn't make sense in this whole process and if you begin to look seriously at it, it's very concerning. Clearly the hostages deserved a lot more than five months into this...not evening knowing who is alive and who holds them etc? Very concerning.
Since logic would dictate that any negotiator would want this list from the get-go...one could conclude these talks were never serious...but the US was supposedly pressing for this...how is it the US can't get this list from its own "NON-NATO ALLY"...that hosts Hamas.
How can we be told on the one hand that all these countries are very serious and know all sorts of things...but the very basic thing such as "ok, we need a list of who is alive" wasn't the first thing one asks every week during the round of meetings..."we need proof of life"
Is the real story that just no one involved in this has put the hostages first...and that Hamas runs everything somehow with its patrons/handlers/hosts...and so everyone is kind of just playing along a staged script of Hamas...and Hamas doesn't care about providing this list, so no one gets it...but how did Hamas become more powerful than Israel, Egypt and the US and other countries...unless there is more behind the curtain?

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More from @sfrantzman

Feb 29
The tragedy today in Gaza illustrates once again the obvious need to provide an alternative to Hamas in Gaza, the alternative can't just be "either Hamas or a power vacuum of chaos"...given the option between the evils of Hamas and a chaos like was seen with the humanitarian trucks in northern Gaza, people will then be handed another reason to want Hamas to return.
Gazans clearly need to see that there is an alternative to Hamas that is better, not worse. A power vacuum also benefits Hamas in the long run. It will also once again show the internationals who have partnered with Hamas that they have more excuses to work with Hamas.
If the goal in Gaza is to actually defeat Hamas then there needs to be an alternative to Hamas. If the goal however, is just a "tactical" defeat of Hamas "battalions" and then leaving "Hamas police" in charge after then clearly things will just return eventually to October 6 again in the long run.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 29
Doesn't everyone understand that Hamas goal was always to increase civilian casualties. It's whole modus operandi is to tunnel under civilian areas and use every school and UN site and hospital as a shield. It's not "whoops we put a tunnel under a school"...they have a map of Gaza with every school and civilian site and those are all the nodes on their network. Each one is a strategic site. The whole thing was designed for 20 years to make it impossible to uproot them.
One has to understand about Hamas that it's not like other terror groups, Al-Shabab or Boko Haram...it's something that is unprecedented in history...first of all more weapons stockpiled per capita than anywhere else in the world, more tunnels than anywhere else...this organization had expert advise likely from those linked to the host country where its leaders live...probably from experts in international law...so it could exploit every piece of how the international community works.
Everything Hamas does is to bring civilian casualties. Hamas moves its battalions with civilians...when Israel says to evacuate, it moves with them, all its members dress as civilians, they store weapons in most homes so men can pop up and take a shot and then drop the rifle and become a "civilian."
Read 6 tweets
Feb 29
There needs to be a wider study on how some media portrays Hamas "police" and how there is this meta narrative about "law and order" in Gaza. At its base the narrative posits that Hamas represents "law and order" and Hamas police bring "law and order"...they are depicted as if it's a normal police department in London or NYC.
There's zero acknowledgement that the same Hamas is the one that launched October 7, and massacred 1,000 people and took 240 people hostage...the same group that is "law and order" is the one that brought an unprecedented war on Gaza and launches rockets from civilian areas and places weapons in civilian homes.
There must be a conscious method to this, because the huge work that goes into ignoring how Hamas festooned every area in Gaza with weapons and is responsible for the destruction of law and order...it the ultimate elephant in the room.
Read 18 tweets
Feb 27
More reports are emerging in Israeli media about the intelligence failures during the lead-up to the October 7 attack by Hamas. These involve a recent piece about unit 8200 and also details about Hamas using SIM cards. However, what is missing over the last four months are reports about what other countries KNEW and WHEN they knew it.
One would think that some major media would be pressing for details on what was known by western countries, for instance. Many of those countries also listen and collect information in the region. Also what about the various countries in the region who are close to the West?
For instance what about Jordan, Egypt, Doha, Ankara, and other states? Is it really plausible that none of them knew anything about the Hamas plans? Let's think about this. Did you notice on October 7 and October 8 that most countries in the region, and also backers/hosts of Hamas DID NOT seem surprised by the massive attack?
Read 25 tweets
Feb 26
The symbiotic relationship between Hamas and the international community and various NGOs and UN organizations is key to understanding how Hamas came to power and what led to October 7. Hamas police became the “norm” and “law and order” even though its a criminal mafia terrorist organization
Westerner governments and organizations partnered with Hamas police. Hamas suppresses Gazans and uses civilian areas for its terrorist purposes. Hamas police keep humanitarian aid from reaching people in order to weaponize the aid.
Even today as Hamas has lost control of most of Gaza, the intl community needs Hamas police to help Hamas stay in power. Even when they have a chance to partner with others and distribute food without Hamas, the goal is to keep Hamas, because Hamas is the preferred partner and always has been. That’s how Hamas came to power and became massively wealthy by using aid like a mafia
Read 8 tweets
Feb 21
China's comments on Gaza and the US veto are getting headlines in different media, here at BBC and Al-Ain, with China posing now as the "responsible" country using the conflict and veto to slam the US.

It's important to take note of this, because Hamas has benefited immensely from exploiting divisions between the West and Russia, China; it timed the war to take advantage of the war in Ukraine and China-US tensions so that these countries would not condemn Hamas but would use the war to slam the US.Image
Image
China's UN ambassador Zhang Jun said: "Given the situation on the ground, the continued passive avoidance of an immediate ceasefire is nothing different from giving a green light to the continued slaughter."
Hamas is much more powerful than many realize. It has global influence. In some way it is used as a tool by these states, but it also understood the shifting world order and seeks to use the current shifts to push its genocidal agenda. For instance, Hamas knew that on October 8 Russia and China wouldn't condemn it.
Read 10 tweets

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