Jeff Gilchrist Profile picture
Mar 3, 2024 61 tweets 14 min read Read on X
Increased Measles in Canada - Are you protected?

As Public Health crumbles and too few people are getting vaccinated for measles our herd immunity levels have dropped too much and now many people are at risk for a disease we almost eradicated in Canada. 🧵1/ Various symptoms of measles. Fever, Cough, Blocked or running nose, red, sore and watery eyes, spots in mouth, measles rash. Image from: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12991379/Symptoms-measles-runny-nose-rash-tell-apart.html
Contents of Post:
* Worldwide Outbreaks
* Symptoms
* How is it Transmitted
* How to prevent Infection
* Damage from Measles
* Measles Depletes Immune Memory
* How long does Vaccine Last
* Breakthrough Infections
* Cleaning the Air

2/
There has been a huge surge in measles cases around the world including cases in the UK and USA. The government is strongly advising everyone in Canada to be vaccinated with 2 doses of measles vaccine, especially before travelling ( ). 3/canada.ca/en/public-heal…
Popular March break destinations like Florida are having measles outbreaks and the Florida Surgeon General is no longer requiring children who are unvaccinated to remain home from schools where measles cases are circulating which means cases will continue to surge there. 4/
Measles is one of the most contagious viruses that infect humans, spreads through the air, and requires such a small dose to become infected that 90% of people who are not immune will become infected if exposed. 5/
Aerosols can remain airborne for hours so even walking into an empty room where a contagious person had been 2 hours previously can be enough to continue infecting people ( ). 6/ottawa.ctvnews.ca/health-officia…
Initial symptoms include fever, red watery eyes, runny nose, cough, followed by a rash that starts on the face and then moves to the rest of the body. 7/ Various symptoms of measles. Fever, Cough, Blocked or running nose, red, sore and watery eyes, spots in mouth, measles rash. Image from: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12991379/Symptoms-measles-runny-nose-rash-tell-apart.html
Small white (Koplik) spots may also appear in the mouth or back of the throat and usually 1 day before the onset of rash ( ). 8/ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK54979…
Symptoms may develop 7-21 days after exposure, the rash typically appears 3-7 days after symptoms start and lasts 4-7 days, symptoms can last 1-2 weeks ( ). 9/ottawapublichealth.ca/en/public-heal…
People can be contagious days before the rash (which is not itchy) and also days after the rash is gone so just because you feel better doesn't mean you can't infect others. 10/
Since measles is airborne, cleaning the air (ventilation, filtration) and wearing a respirator can prevent infection. 11/
How do air cleaners/HEPA filters or respirators actually work to capture tiny microscopic viruses? Learn here how they don't work like a sieve ( ). 12/
More and more of these almost eradicated or less common diseases are returning including things like scarlet fever. 13/
We really should be investing in infrastructure improvements to clean the air like we did for drinking water considering they all spread through the air ( ). 14/
The measles vaccine is also highly effective. Before the introduction of the vaccine in 1963, major measles epidemics occurred every 2-3 years killing an estimated 2.6 million people each year ( ). 15/who.int/news-room/fact…
"Measles is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide during childhood, particularly in developing countries." ( ). 16/ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK54979…
This is why there was a concerted effort to eradicate measles and why it is still important for people to get vaccinated for it. Parents should ensure their children and adolescents actually received both of their measles vaccines. 17/
These are usually given as a combo MMR (Measles-Mumps-Rubella) vaccine at 12 months and a second dose at 18 months or 4-6 years of age. Infants can receive a dose as early as 6 months if travelling to a high risk area ( ). 18/canada.ca/en/public-heal…
In Ontario, measles vaccination rates in 7 year old's were only 59% for the 2021-2022 school year where you need closer to 95% to protect the community (herd immunity) so a lot of children will not be protected ( ). 19/ottawa.ctvnews.ca/health-officia…
Adults also need to double check their vaccination history as some may have only received 1 dose decades ago. If you are unsure, speak to your healthcare provider about a potential MMR booster dose or getting a blood test to see if they are already immune to measles. 20/
Vaccines can also be obtained at walk-in clinics and travel clinics. The MMR booster vaccines are the same ones given to both adults and children. 21/
Most of us have never experienced measles or even know someone who had it so we do not understand how serious infection can be. 22/
Measles infection can lead to brain damage and death in 2-3 of every 1000 cases. If you are pregnant, older than 20, a child < 5, or immunocompromised you are at higher risk of complications. 23/
Measles can also cause deafness, blindness, severe diarrhoea and related dehydration, ear infections, and severe breathing problems including pneumonia ( ). H/T: @malolisica 24/who.int/news-room/fact…
"All children or adults with measles should receive two doses of vitamin A supplements, given 24 hours apart. This restores low vitamin A levels that occur even in well-nourished children." 25/
"It can help prevent eye damage and blindness. Vitamin A supplements may also reduce the number of measles deaths." 26/
Unfortunately infection from measles can also cause damage to your immune system and eliminates pre existing immune memory from previous infections ( ). 27/ science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Close up image of measles virus. Image from: https://images.fineartamerica.com/images-medium-large-5/measles-virus-particle-alfred-pasieka.jpg
Epidemiological evidence found people who had been infected with measles had increased morbidity and mortality for up to 5 years after infection. 28/
Measles may have accounted for up to 50% of all childhood deaths from infectious disease mostly from non-measles infections that children could no longer fight off. 29/
Testing before and after infection they found children lost 33% (median) of their total pre-existing pathogen-specific antibody repertoires in mild measles infections and 40% (median) in severe infections while controls retained 90% over similar or longer durations. 30/ Probability of retaining initial antibodies at time 2 for individual pathogens per child. Each point represents a single pathogen per child. Probabilities are obtained by fitting a binomial random effects model controlling for interval duration (materials and methods). Each boxplot represents the interquartile range and median retention probabilities calculated across pathogens for a single child. Points indicate pathogen-specific retentions that are outside of the interquartile range per child. Children are rank ordered along the x axis by the median (black dot per boxplot) retention proba...
The study also looked at measles vaccination which confirmed that the vaccine does not impair the immune repertoire like an infection does. 31/ Click "Show replies" 👇 to continue.
How does measles do this? It seems that measles can infect 20-70% of immune memory cells including B cells, T cells, and plasma cells in the lymphoid tissue and peripheral blood during the first 3-10 days after infection. 32/
T cell immunity may also diminish after measles infection and explain why cutaneous tuberculosis tests no longer test positive and remission of autoimmune related disorders are more common. 33/
You can read more about how measles wipes out the body's immune memory here ( ) and ( ). 34/asm.org/Articles/2019/…
news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/…
When measles vaccination rates are reduced and outbreaks occur, herd immunity for secondary infectious disease can also be lost due to this destruction of immune memory from measles infections ( ). 35/royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.10…
Protecting against measles also provides added benefits of protecting against other diseases as well. 36/
It was expected that people with two doses of measles vaccines may be protected for life but a study in Brazil found seropositivity may be lower than expected in adequately immunized adults ( ). 37/ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Seropositivity was higher among older individuals and those with a shorter time since the last MMR vaccine dose. 38/
"The high rate of seronegative individuals in adequately vaccinated populations raises concerns about the potential role of a third dose of the MMR vaccine, particularly during outbreaks." 39/
"Our data revealed that 67.3% of young adults considered adequately vaccinated had apparently non-protective IgG antibody titers, which may render them susceptible to measles." 40/
Low or undetectable levels of antibodies does not guarantee lack of protection with virus exposure but it is possible that cellular immune responses that were not measurable at the time may still provide some protection. 41/
"The measles-containing vaccine (MCV) is highly effective, but a small number of two dose-vaccinated people (around 3%) exposed to the virus contract measles." ( ). 42/ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
"In Spain, from 2003 to 2014, around 3.5% of confirmed cases had received two doses of MMR vaccine, most of them having received the second dose more than 10 years prior." 43/
There are already signals that measles may be quietly spreading in Canada with at least 9 confirmed infections in 2024 after 2 months compared to 12 cases for all of 2023 ( ). H/T: @kristinaEBP 44/cbc.ca/news/health/me…
Two recent cases identified in Quebec and Ontario were not tied to prior travel or came into contact with any known measles cases suggesting they were infected within their community. 45/
One case hadn't been vaccinated and the other was a vaccinated man in his 30s who still had a breakthrough infection with milder symptoms. 46/
People previously vaccinated for measles who still get infected can have clinical presentations from mild to an illness that meets the full case definition so can make identification more difficult ( ). 47/ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Cleaning the air isn't just important for measles but TB, COVID, and respiratory viruses also transmit through the air via aerosols ( ). 48/science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
For some reason Public Health will easily say that Measles and TB is airborne but they aren't educating the public that other viruses and bacteria use the exact same transportation network (aerosols) to spread in the air. 49/
TB bacteria which can be as long as 7000 nm ( ) use the same aerosol transportation as the 47x smaller measles virus (150 nm) ( ) and the even smaller COVID virus (90 nm) ( ). 50/erj.ersjournals.com/content/54/sup…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
While it is important to wash your hands in general, protecting your airways is where the focus and biggest investments should be made. The risk of contact transmission via hands from COVID in a community setting is extremely rare. 51/
This study tested 925 swabs and found only 0.32% had any viral RNA detected and of those, none of the samples contained viable viruses so unable to infect ( ). 52/cureus.com/articles/22753…
Had Public Health and governments started investing in upgrading the infrastructure for clean indoor air early in the pandemic when it became obvious that COVID and respiratory viruses also spread via aerosols, we would be in a much better position today... 53/
...to deal with outbreaks of other viruses and increasing wildfire smoke pollution ( ). 54/
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@Velvetpage You can see in Ontario that confirmed cases of invasive group a strep (iGAS) have been a lot higher the past couple of years compared to pre-pandemic times ( ). publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Docume…
Figure 1: Confirmed iGAS Case Counts by Month for all Ages: Current Season (October 1, 2023 – January 31, 2024)* Compared to the 2022-23 Season (October 1, 2022 – September 30, 2023) and the Five Pre-Pandemic Season Average (October 1, 2014 – September 30, 2019). Image from: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/I/2023/igas-enhanced-epi-2023-2024.pdf?rev=83e76f2abcf54928ba1d6d7e43f33f33&sc_lang=en
People have been asking, if they were infected with the actual measles virus decades ago do they still have protection? This study in 2021 looked at that question vs vaccination ( ). 55/ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
"Current evidence suggests that immunity after the disease is life-long, whereas the response after two doses of measles-containing vaccine declines within 10–15 years." 56/
In their vaccinated group about 20% of people lacked detectable circulating anti-measles IgG antibodies compared to only 6% of their previously infected group. This graph shows vaccine antibody level declines over time. 57/ Kaplan-Meier PAS estimates for the vaccine and disease groups. Image from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8189124/
"Prevalence of Italian HCWs susceptible to measles equal to 12% and so firm measures of control and prevention are needed to reduce the risk of measles in nosocomial environment and its complication especially in high risk patients." 58/

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More from @jeffgilchrist

Jan 11
*** Ontario Virus & Variant Update | Jan 11 ***

Hospitalizations due to COVID increased from 176 to 241 in the last update. Influenza hospitalizations have start dropping from the peak of 1,400 to 1,095 with RSV increasing from 121 to 156. 🧵1/ Graph of New hospitalizations in Ontario due to COVID, Influenza or RSV.
Looking back over the past few years, new hospitalizations for RSV have remained pretty stable the last two years around 2,500 and a decrease from 2023, while COVID has been significantly dropping each year, 26,571 in 2023 to 15,739 in 2024 to 6,788 in 2025. 2/ Graph of New hospitalizations in Ontario due to COVID, Influenza or RSV, grouped by calendar year.
Influenza has been doing the opposite, increasing significantly each year from 3,486, to 4,380 in 2024, to 12,818 in 2025. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Oct 25, 2025
How does various mask fit compare to filter the air and protect you or others?

Most masks, even baggy blue procedure masks use filtering material that can filter 95%+ of particles that pass through it, but the key is "pass through it". 🧵1/ Bar chart titled “Equivalent Exposure Time to Unmasked Person.” The chart compares how long different masks/respirators extend the equivalent exposure time relative to being unmasked. The x-axis shows unmasked infection times of 1, 5, and 10 minutes. The y-axis shows equivalent masked exposure time, ranging up to 5000 minutes. Seven mask types are represented by colored bars: - Procedure mask (loose fit, FF=2) - Ear loop mask (tight fit, FF=6) - Vertical bifold headband mask (FF=30) - N95 headband masks with fit factors of 100, 200, and 500 Key pattern: higher fit factor masks dramatically ...
Protection mostly depends on how well that mask fits your specific face and one that does not fit well, much of the air you breathe will go around the filter material and filter 0% of those particles. 2/
There has been a chart going around recently that talks about "Time it takes to transmit an infectious dose of COVID-19" which is misleading if you don't understand all of the details of how that table was made and what each component means. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Oct 19, 2025
** Ontario Variant Update (to Oct. 3, 2025) **

The XFG.* "Stratus" family is accounting for 83% while the next closest variant family NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" is 12.8% of sequenced genomes from COVID tests. 🧵1/ Line graph showing COVID-19 variant family frequencies in Ontario, Canada, from June to October 2025, based on 3,722 sequenced genomes.
Looking at specific variants, XFG.3 has dropped considerably and its descendent XFG.3.15 now takes first place at 6.2%, followed by XFG.3 at 5.2% and XFG.2 at 4.5%. 2/ Line graph showing specific COVID-19 variant frequencies in Ontario, Canada, from June to October 2025, based on 3,722 sequenced genomes.
It looks like PY.1.1.1 was trying to make a run for the top in mid-September but has decreased significantly. PY.1.1.1 is a descendant of LF.7 while the XFG variant is a recombination of LF.7 and LP.8.1.2 so they would share some mutations in common. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Sep 9, 2025
*** Ontario Variant Update (to: Aug. 16, 2025) ***

Ontario COVID sequence updates have been more frequent over the past month with the XFG.* "Stratus" family of variants now at 74% of sequences, NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" at 22% and LP.8.1.* down to 3%. #Variants #XFG #Stratus 🧵1/ Line graph showing COVID-19 variant frequencies in Ontario, Canada, from May to mid August 2025, based on 1,772 sequenced genomes. The XFG.* Stratus variant rises sharply to dominate over 70% by August. Other variants, including FLiRT and LP.8.1.*, decline over the same period, while NB.1.8.1.* Nimbus remains steady around 20% and several minor variants remain at low levels.
Looking at specific variants as of mid August, XFG.5.1 is most prevalent at 13%, NB.1.8.1 in second at 10%, XFG.2 in third at 8.6% and XFG.3 in fourth at 7.4%. 2/ Line graph showing COVID-19 variant frequencies in Ontario from 5 July to 16 August 2025, based on 750 sequenced genomes. Seven variants are tracked: NB.1.8.1, XFG.2, XFG.3, XFG.3.4.1, XFG.3.1, XFG.4.1, and XFG.5.1. Frequencies range from 0% to about 14%, with some variants rising, others falling, and some fluctuating over time. A bar chart below shows the number of samples collected on each date.
LP.8.1 is what this fall's Japan Novavax vaccine and the mRNA vaccines are designed for which is now almost gone and typical of how these things work with vaccine manufacturing timing while Novavax is providing the previous year's JN.1 vaccine formula for the USA again. 3/
Read 18 tweets
Jun 9, 2025
Understanding Canadian Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) & Wildfire Smoke

Wildfire smoke consists of toxic gases and particulate matter (PM) when breathed in gets into our lungs, bloodstream, and even our brain. 🧵1/
#iaq #wildfire #smoke #AQI #AQHI #Canada Bar chart of Canadian Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) - Equivalent # Cigarettes after Exposure ranging from 0.5 cigarettes after 8 hours exposure at AQHI level 3 to 0.9 cigarettes at level 6 and 1.5 at level 10.
Graph of Particulate Matter (PM) Levels in Ottawa from June 6, 2025 to June 8, 2025 from a VisiblAir Model X air quality sensor ( https://visiblair.com/ ).
The web version of this article with nice table of contents and easy to share with others can be found here ( tinyurl.com/AQHIwildfire ) and ( docs.google.com/document/d/1s9… ). 2/ Table of Contents: * Introduction * Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) * Health impact of Wildfire Smoke * Protect Yourself
When smoke stays in the air for prolonged periods of time, the UV radiation from the sun interacts with all the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to form even more toxic gases ( ). 3/theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weathe…
Read 41 tweets
Jun 6, 2025
Pollution levels in Ottawa are very high from wildfire smoke. The particulate matter (PM)2.5 levels surpassed 140 ug/m^3 Thursday evening and are still above 130 on my VisiblAir Model X outdoor sensor ( ). 🧵1/ #iaq #wildfire #smoke visiblair.comLine graph showing PM2.5 levels in Ottawa increasing above 140 ug/m^3 and still above 130 now
Readings from a VisiblAir Model X outdoor air quality monitor showing levels in Ottawa above 130 ug/m^3 for PM2.5 wildfire smoke pollution
The EPA maps fine particulate pollution to their Air Quality Index where anything above 125.5 PM is Very Unhealthy which is a "Health alert: The risk of health effects is increased for everyone" ( ). 2/airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/
EPA Categories:
* Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange) = 35.5-55.4 PM ug/m^3
* Unhealthy for everyone (Red) = 55.5 to 125.4 PM ug/m^3
* Very Unhealthy (Purple) = 125.5 to 225.4 PM ug/m^3
* Hazardous (Brown) = 225.5+ PM ug/m^3

3/
Read 13 tweets

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