Back in April 2023 when Trump was indicted for the first time in the victimless New York false records indictment, I said he was going to get convicted despite the fact that the charge was dumb. The overwhelming majority of my fellow legal commentators disagreed with me, saying mean things to me like “you fat dumbass” and “fat.”
But the reason I stuck to my guns was that once the charge is handed down, there are limited off-ramps to get rid of it no matter how lame it is.
The combination of intensely partisan judges and juries in these districts and the less than ideal attorneys and clients on the Trump side would make it hard to get a good outcome for Trump.
Now that Trump is Ofer infinity in court cases in the lib districts, does anyone want to change their mind on this one?
Again, not saying the charge wasn’t dumb. But you know what else was dumb? The financial disclosure case (verdict against Trump, huge damages) and the Jean Carroll case (verdict against Trump, huge damages).
Damn dude this is madness. I thought Matt was joking, but no -- the Department of Justice actually concluded that Biden was too old and feebleminded to commit a crime.
Mini-thread: Trump's Supreme Court brief on the Colorado ballot case makes 5 arguments:
1. The president is not an "officer of the United States" 2. Trump did not "engage in insurrection" 3. Section 3 can be enforced only through Congress's chosen methods 4. Section 3 cannot be used to deny President Trump access to the ballot 5. Colorado violated the Electors Clause and the Colorado Election Code
Argument 2: Trump did not engage in insurrection.
This is exactly the sort of fact-based argument that SCOTUS likes to avoid. SCOTUS tends to prefer to rule on legal principles as opposed to debatable questions of fact.
I don't think they touch this argument.
Argument 5: Colorado violated the Electors Clause and the Colorado Election Code
I've read this portion of the brief a few times and I'm not even sure I understand it. From what I can understand, it seems wrong. Not seeing this as a big winner.
I forgot I have an actual job so this will have to be fast. Thread:
There are five judicial opinions out of Colorado on this Trump ballot thing: the trial court opinion, the Supreme Court majority opinion, and three Supreme Court dissenting opinions.
None of the opinions agree with each other (except maybe the dissenting opinions of Chief Justice Boatright and Justice Berkenkotter).
The most compelling and - in my view - correct decision was the dissent from Justice Samour.
Justice Samour reached holdings that none of the other four groups did.
He examined the issues with the depth and close examination of the case law that is most like how SCOTUS does it.
I think SCOTUS will reverse the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court, and will largely follow the dissent of Justice Samour. I think the SCOTUS decision will be either 9-0 or 7-2.
When the SCOTUS does so, I will remind of you this tweet and gloat. There will be no dealing with me after that.
Before we get to Justice Samour, first some background on the Colorado Supreme Court. It is not typically a deeply divided or partisan Court. They are all Democrats, and they were all appointed by Democrat governors with similar liberal/libertarian leanings.
We get a lot of unanimous opinions. Divisions when they occur are typically respectful and intellectually honest. No vitriol.
I was surprised that this case was a 4-3 opinion, and even more surprised at how sloppy the majority opinion was. Knowing that SCOTUS absolutely has to take this case, I figured they would write something stronger. Ah well.
David Wheeler runs a PAC called "American Muckrakers," a low-rent outfit that publishes whatever unverified rumors that comes his way. About a year ago, they made a splash by alleging that Lauren Boebert was a prostitute who had two abortions.
They claimed they had a tip from a source close to Boebert, and then conducted an "exhaustive investigation" to confirm the allegations.
Remember this for later.
Boebert quickly and categorically denied the allegations. And despite not being the most popular gal on Twitter, the sense was that the report was bullshit. The escort didn't even look like Boebert . . . like AT ALL. Like not even close.