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David Doney Profile picture
@David_Charts
Mar 5, 2024 • 12 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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🧵State of the Union economic briefing; the key facts you need about the economy. First, monthly job creation over 50% faster in 2023 than 2019, the most comparable pre-pandemic year. 1/
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
Image
Unemployment rate averaged 3.6% in 2022 and 2023, both lower than pre-pandemic 2019. You have to go back to 1969 for a 3.5% year. 2/ fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
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Black unemployment reached the lowest ever in 2023 at 5.5%. Hispanic unemployment reached the lowest ever in 2022 at 4.2%. 3/
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…

Image
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Real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wages increased from $28.48 in 2019 to $29.41 in 2023, up about $1/hour or 3.3% on average.

Americans had more purchasing power 2021-2023 under Biden than pre-pandemic, despite inflation. 4/
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
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Compared to other presidents on average back to LBJ, Biden ranks:
☑️#1 for highest real hourly wages, and
☑️#2 for lowest unemployment rate, just behind LBJ and closing the gap each month. 5/ Image
In terms of real (inflation-adjusted) net worth per household, Americans became the richest ever in 2022, and remain far richer in 2023 than 2019.

+ $19,000 or 53% for bottom 50% group
+ $108,500 or 15% for 50th-90th group 6/
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
Image
Stock market (S&P 500) was 47% higher in 2023 than 2019 on average.

Stock market +50% under Biden from election, vs. 44% at this point for Trump. Biden will likely remain ahead for next 100+ trading days, as Trump goes into pandemic dive. 7/
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_i…
Image
Here's a handy summary of some key measures, 2023 vs. 2019. Nearly every measure was better in 2023, even adjusted for inflation.

In fact, 2022 was also better than 2019 on most measures too, as you saw on previous slides, particularly net worth which peaked in 2022. 8/ Image
Some economic facts regarding immigration: 9/
cbo.gov/publication/59…
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The Senate has a bi-partisan plan to help improve our ability to integrate the millions of immigrants we need to keep our economy and wealth growing.

Republicans, we can't grow our wealth without a better ability to integrate immigrants. It's that simple. 10/ Image
Here is a link to a thread covering the many excellent laws Biden has passed, with details on their contributions to your pocketbook. 11/
As a reminder, the economy historically does far better under Democrats, on all key measures, including much lower deficits. Here is a link to that thread. 12/END

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More from @David_Charts

David Doney Profile picture
Mar 16
🧵Monthly economic update, through the February 2025 results, Trump's first month. First, we added 151,000 jobs in Feb and are now nearly 7 million jobs above the pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022. We've set records for number with jobs monthly thereafter. 1/ Image
Job creation (Establishment Survey) has averaged about 200,000 over the past 3 months, very solid historically. 2/ Image
The more volatile Household Survey was mostly negative, with a 588,000 decline in the number employed and 203,000 more unemployed. The unemployment rate increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, still very low by historical standards. 3/ Image
Read 18 tweets
David Doney Profile picture
Feb 16
🧵Where does the national debt come from?
1. Recessions, which cause revenue to fall and automatic stabilizer spending (like unemployment insurance) to rise w/o legislation.
2. Tax cuts
3. Wars
4. Recessions, via stimulus legislation
5. Interest 1/
cbo.gov/sites/default/…Image
Recessions and the responses (automatic and legislative) are the primary driver. 10 of the last 11 started under Republicans. Every Republican president since Benjamin Harrison, who served from 1889 to 1893, had a recession start on their watch. 2/ Image
Budget deficits have increased under every Republican but Eisenhower, and fallen under every Democrat but Kennedy. Deficits increase/worsen 3.25% GDP on average under Republicans, and fall/improve by 3.0% GDP under Democrats. So who's the party of fiscal responsibility? 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
David Doney Profile picture
Feb 14
🧵Monthly economic review, through the Jan '25 data, Biden's last month. First, we added a decent 143,000 jobs in January. We're up about 6.7 million jobs from the pre-pandemic peak, which was regained in June 2022, and 16.1 million vs. Biden start. 1/
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMSImage
The monthly job creation rate had been fading, but surged in the past 3 months to a robust 237,000 average. This was after benchmark revisions, done routinely each year. 2/ Image
No matter how you slice it, job creation under Biden was faster than Trump, even comparing Trump pre-pandemic (180k/mo) to Biden post-recovery (217k/mo). 3/ Image
Read 21 tweets
David Doney Profile picture
Jan 12
🧵The MSM created 4 fake crises (Inflation, Immigration, Housing, and Crime), which helped Trump get elected while hiding record prosperity. Here are slides explaining the counter-arguments to such misinformation, plus a few charts and links included for more details. 1/ Image
Facts regarding the false narratives on housing and crime. 2/ Image
Wages & Inflation should be reported in context. Purchasing power is what matters.
☑️Wages have outgrown inflation.
☑️Real (inflation-adjusted) wages have always been higher than 2019 during 2021-2024.
☑️Biden has the highest avg. real wages among the last 11 presidents. 3/ Image
Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
David Doney Profile picture
Jan 5
🧵President Biden's economic legacy, in charts. First, the unemployment rate at 4.1% on average is the lowest (best) among the last 14 presidents, for FRED data back to 1948. 1/ Image
The real (infl-adj) hourly wages for production & non-supervisory workers (the bottom 80% of the private sector) averaged higher under Biden than the last 11 presidents. In other words, workers had more purchasing power under Biden than other presidents, despite inflation. 2/ Image
Taking the first two charts together, Biden has the best combination of unemployment and real wages among the last 11 presidents. This is the best reading on the "Prosperity Matrix" of any modern president. 3/ Image
Read 16 tweets
David Doney Profile picture
Dec 14, 2024
🧵Monthly economic update, through November:
First, job creation was +227,000 jobs, or +283,000 after upward adjustments to Sept & Oct. We're now +16.4 million jobs from when Biden started and +7.0 million vs. pre-pandemic peak regained in June 2022. 1/ Image
🏆Biden is the only president with positive job creation every month in office.

No matter how you slice and adjust it, job creation is much faster under Biden than Trump:

Biden July 2022-present: +239,000 / month
Trump pre-pandemic: +180,000 / month 2/ Image
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% in November, to 4.2%. The historical average back to 1948 is 5.7%. The 2022 & 2023 annual average of 3.6% was lower than Trump's best of 3.7% in 2019. The last 3.5% year was 1969. 3/ Image
Read 17 tweets

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