Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 5 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I'm trying to understand something. Hamas' demands and pre-conditions are to return to October 6 basically. So why did Hamas start this war in the first place, if its demands are to go back to October 6? The answer to that question is that Hamas was advised by its handlers/hosts/patrons and this war was designed to set in motion much larger processes.Image
The rapidity with which Russia, China, Ankara, Doha, Tehran and others moved to circle the wagons after October 7 illustrates that what was really going on was a much larger agenda. The Houthis were then operationalized to carry out attacks too
Then ths anti-Israel lobby also began to operationalize mass protests in the West and hijack them with Hamas slogans such as "flood" and to target Jews. The agenda here is large, well funded and complex. For instance some people on social media began to take up this cause for followers and some of those who had been sidelined due to their support of the Assad regime and Putin...found themselves welcome guests again on shows and invited speakers because they had taken up the pro-Hamas line.
That's why the real story here is not that Hamas just wants a ceasefire and for Israel to return to the October 6 lines...because if it wanted that it would never have done October 7.
The real goal of October 7 was to reset the entire Middle East and also have global famifications...it was a watershed event. And Hamas goal, along with its backers/hosts/patrons, is to bring it into the West Bank and to replace the PA leadership in the future with Hamas.
Another part of this is the unprecedented massacre of Hamas and the ability/power their backers have to get some in the West to claim it is "resistance"...this narrative was pushed by some "human rights" groups even, asserting that any mass killing by Hamas is acceptable
That's why October 7 was so important because it was about changing the whole discussion about what is acceptable, it was a dry run for genocide basically, to wrap genocidal massacres in the "resistance" agenda...and see if people in the West would accept this.
Coordinated attempts to get activist groups in the West to rip down photos of hostages and get them to deny sex crimes under the guise of "if we mention Hamas crimes it will be weaponized"...is a whole new level of operationalizing activists in the West.
The idea was if activists can be made to support a "flood" and massacre of civilians...then they can be used as tools for other campaigns. October 7 was the first shot in a long war. Hamas is a proxy...it was encouraged to do October 7 and bring suffering on Gaza...to serve the interests of others...and you can see others benefited from this. And today the hostage talks are not run just by Hamas...there is a lot at stake in this.

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More from @sfrantzman

Mar 7
Notice the current state of the Hamas hostage talks. When they began after the first pause, the aspects of the deal were clear…but then Hamas realized it could pressure Israel using Ramadan, something its advisors/hosts urged it to do while those hosts told western countries that the war must end by Ramadan…so Hamas then increased its obfuscation daily, claiming it can’t provide a list of living hostages and demanding a ceasefire for “confidence building” before any deal…
It’s clear that Hamas got a message from its handlers “don’t do a deal, we will work to pressure Israel about Ramadan and claim that if Israel doesn’t pause fighting then the whole region will be inflamed and then we will put fuel on the fire to inflame it.”
So clearly the goal now by the Hamas handlers/hosts/patrons is to use the Gaza war to inflame the region during Ramadan, they are already pushing this messaging. It’s not that Hamas and Israel can’t do a deal, it’s that the same countries that were behind October 7 and advised Hamas to carry out October 7 are now behind this new campaign
Read 8 tweets
Mar 6
Notice the scam of how the hostage talks are progressing. What should have been asked for at the beginning, months ago, is now a "negotiation" point: Basically Hamas won't even give a list of living hostages unless Israel agrees to pre-conditions. It shows how Hamas believes it is winning and continues to run the whole thing.
If you read about it, the US is now saying it is "legitimate" for Israel to ask for a list of living hostages. This is how things have progressed, where the most basic thing such as a list of the hostages, is now up for debate...meaning that it was unclear if it was even ok for Israel to ask for this.
This is what five months of war have brought...Hamas still deciding and running everything, with its hosts/patron/backer advising it...it's weird but this is what happens.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 3
I just don't understand how it's possible that Israel got to this point of the negotiations and never got a list. It doesn't make sense. It's like a lot of things that don't make sense about this war. For instance, remember how reports claimed Sinwar had lost contact with Hamas commanders and battalions...and at the same time we were being told that the hostage talks were ongoing...how can you have talks when the people holding the hostages are not even in contact with their leaders? It's obviously all orchestrated from the country that hosts Hamas, and one has to wonder...who is really in charge and driving this whole thing.Image
The war between Israel and Hamas always asks us to suspend disbelief. Like we're told "you see there were increased pressure for a hostage deal over the last month and so Israel finally asked for a list of the hostages that are alive"...really why wasn't that a condition to even have the talks?
Now here's the thing...imagine this was a cartel and a cartel kidnapped 240 Americans or Europeans or something in some country...and then the cartel leadership was hosted by a western ally...and so the host country was brokering talks with the cartel...and then you were told five months after it happened that despite months of talks that actually now was the time to get a list from the cartel of who is alive?
Read 12 tweets
Feb 29
The tragedy today in Gaza illustrates once again the obvious need to provide an alternative to Hamas in Gaza, the alternative can't just be "either Hamas or a power vacuum of chaos"...given the option between the evils of Hamas and a chaos like was seen with the humanitarian trucks in northern Gaza, people will then be handed another reason to want Hamas to return.
Gazans clearly need to see that there is an alternative to Hamas that is better, not worse. A power vacuum also benefits Hamas in the long run. It will also once again show the internationals who have partnered with Hamas that they have more excuses to work with Hamas.
If the goal in Gaza is to actually defeat Hamas then there needs to be an alternative to Hamas. If the goal however, is just a "tactical" defeat of Hamas "battalions" and then leaving "Hamas police" in charge after then clearly things will just return eventually to October 6 again in the long run.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 29
Doesn't everyone understand that Hamas goal was always to increase civilian casualties. It's whole modus operandi is to tunnel under civilian areas and use every school and UN site and hospital as a shield. It's not "whoops we put a tunnel under a school"...they have a map of Gaza with every school and civilian site and those are all the nodes on their network. Each one is a strategic site. The whole thing was designed for 20 years to make it impossible to uproot them.
One has to understand about Hamas that it's not like other terror groups, Al-Shabab or Boko Haram...it's something that is unprecedented in history...first of all more weapons stockpiled per capita than anywhere else in the world, more tunnels than anywhere else...this organization had expert advise likely from those linked to the host country where its leaders live...probably from experts in international law...so it could exploit every piece of how the international community works.
Everything Hamas does is to bring civilian casualties. Hamas moves its battalions with civilians...when Israel says to evacuate, it moves with them, all its members dress as civilians, they store weapons in most homes so men can pop up and take a shot and then drop the rifle and become a "civilian."
Read 6 tweets
Feb 29
There needs to be a wider study on how some media portrays Hamas "police" and how there is this meta narrative about "law and order" in Gaza. At its base the narrative posits that Hamas represents "law and order" and Hamas police bring "law and order"...they are depicted as if it's a normal police department in London or NYC.
There's zero acknowledgement that the same Hamas is the one that launched October 7, and massacred 1,000 people and took 240 people hostage...the same group that is "law and order" is the one that brought an unprecedented war on Gaza and launches rockets from civilian areas and places weapons in civilian homes.
There must be a conscious method to this, because the huge work that goes into ignoring how Hamas festooned every area in Gaza with weapons and is responsible for the destruction of law and order...it the ultimate elephant in the room.
Read 18 tweets

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