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Salvatore Mattera Profile picture
@SalvMattera
Mar 5 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Another data point came out recently that suggests many people (maybe even most people) will eventually develop some degree of long COVID in the future. This is something I've been concerned about for years, and is the entire reason I started writing. I'll explain:
Given that immunity to COVID wanes rapidly, it is widely believed that people will have many COVID infections over the course of their lives. Some experts have put it at 1x/yr. I've personally had 4 infections in ~3 years, and many people I know have had at least 2 or 3 now.
According to CDC, every infection carries the risk of long COVID. Even if you've been vaccinated, or have been infected previously and seem to be doing fine. Last year, the German government put the odds at ~3% per infection; the WHO put it at about 10%.
With these two assumptions, it becomes a very simple math problem: after some number of infections, many people in the population will have long COVID.
I've made this argument many times to many skeptics, and really the only compelling counter argument is this: based on the data we have, that's not happening. Rates of long COVID in the population appear to be declining; fewer people have it now than in the past.
Usually, they'd make that claim based on data from the CDC (there was also an NHS survey, but that's long since been discontinued). For over a year now, the CDC has been running a survey, asking people if they have long COVID. The percentage of people had been flat-to-down.
I think this survey approach is flawed, as I wrote about here:
But, let's just assume the survey approach is valid. According to the CDC, the percentage of adults in the US living with long COVID increased ~30% between October 2023 and February 2024.
And the % of adults who ever had long COVID increased by ~23%. Now, almost one-fifth of American adults currently have long COVID, or have had long COVID at some point in the past.
I certainly don't know how many people will eventually have long COVID, how severe it will be, or how long it will take for it to hit a tipping point. But this data debunks the entire counter argument against this idea. CC @ahhrrr

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More from @SalvMattera

Salvatore Mattera Profile picture
Mar 2
So I said I was going to hire a personal trainer again and just sort of force myself to try to return to my previous athletic level, as a sort of experiment. Well, I hired the trainer and it turns out that he also, in fact, has long COVID.
But he didn't know until we talked about it. I walked him through the issues I'd had over the last year. I explained all my heart symptoms. He had the exact same symptoms. Went through all the same tests, and found nothing. His doctors never even mentioned LC as a possibility.
He was exhausted. "I didn't sleep at all last night," he said. "It happens to me sometimes now since I caught COVID."
Read 6 tweets
Salvatore Mattera Profile picture
Mar 2
Although the media is covering long COVID more often now, almost every article includes subtle propaganda techniques designed to minimize and mislead people about the risk. As you're reading any article on long COVID, see if you can spot these techniques:
Noting the vaccination status of a specific person with long COVID if they were not vaccinated. If they were vaccinated and still developed long COVID, their vaccination status will not be mentioned. Reinforces the false idea that vaccinated people don't need to worry about LC
If they developed long COVID pre-Omicron, this will be mentioned. If they developed long COVID after Omicron, this will not be mentioned. Reinforces the false idea that long COVID is not something people need to worry about nowadays
Read 10 tweets
Salvatore Mattera Profile picture
Feb 22
After a 6 month wait, I finally talked to a cardiologist today at Stanford who specializes in long COVID. What he told me was pretty disappointing, but not surprising:
For context: After my second COVID infection in October 2022, I developed heart problems. Initially it was palpitations and odd spikes in my heart rate. At first, doctors told me it was just stress.
But after the third infection in January 2023, it became much worse. I would have palpitations all day, every day for months. I could feel my heart beating in different parts of my body, like my neck and legs. And the chest pain - so much chest pain.
Read 15 tweets
Salvatore Mattera Profile picture
Feb 19
Someone asked me, "if many people are gradually developing long COVID, wouldn't we see it in the economic data?" Yes, we would. And in fact we are. A few recent examples:
In the UK, the number of people with long-term sickness has been rising. Because of this, there are now fewer people working in the UK than before the pandemic began. Image
Something similar is happening in Germany. Workers are now taking so many sick days that it's pushed the country's economy into recession. Image
Read 26 tweets
Salvatore Mattera Profile picture
Feb 6
It's obvious to me that COVID and long COVID are fueling the labor shortage - after all, when you kill 30 million people, and disable hundreds of millions more, I don't know how things could be any different. But some people remain skeptical, so I'll walk through the numbers.
Official COVID death data is unreliable - did someone die "with" COVID or because of COVID? - so you have to look at excess deaths. As of the end of last year, The Economist estimated that just over 28 million people have died from COVID or related-causes since 2020
The majority of these people were elderly, and therefore, disproportionately more likely to be retired. But the idea that everyone who died from COVID was an unproductive nursing home resident just isn't true.
Read 16 tweets
Salvatore Mattera Profile picture
Jan 27
COVID is the reason why there's currently a political crisis in the US over the southern border. And as long as COVID continues to spread unchecked, you can expect it to get worse over time. I'll explain:
Although certain people choose to frame it as "an invasion" or people who are looking for free handouts, the truth is that the majority of people that enter the US illegally are looking for work.
When there's work available for them, they come. And when there's not, they don't. There is a strong correlation between US border crossings and job openings going back years: Image
Read 11 tweets

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