Macron today produced maps of a poss Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the west to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks w French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on Fr involvement in the conflict 1/
.@EmmanuelMacron summoned leaders of all French parliamentary parties to talks at the Elysée Palace to explain his controversial remarks last week in which he said the deployment of western troops in Ukraine should no longer be excluded 2/
Participants in the meeting said Macron had explained his theory of “strategic ambivalence” – keeping Moscow guessing. Since Vladimir Putin clearly knew no limits, he said, the West had been handing him an advantage by fixing or “interiorising” limits of its own /3
But Opposition leaders of the Far Right, Right and Left said they had been left worried and unconvinced by Macron’s approach (which has also been rejected by the US, UK, Germany and several other Nato countries) /4
Jordan Bardella, the president and de facto Number Two of Marine Le Pen's @MLP_officiel far right Rassemblement National, said threatening to send French soldiers “to fight a Nuclear power like Russia is irresponsible and extremely dangerous for world peace” /5
The Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel said that he feared that Macron was “ready to engage in a bellicose escalation which would be very dangerous” /6
Today’s meeting was the prelude to a two day parliamentary debate next week to discuss a ten year defence pact signed by Macron and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr @ZelenskyyUa last month 7/
Macron told French journalists on Wednesday that he hoped this debate would “make it clear” which political forces in France supported Ukraine and which supported Russia 8/
Elysée officials deny domestic politics & June EU elex have influenced Macron’s new rhetoric on Ukraine. They say he is driven by the difficult situation on front line, Navalny's murder & Kremlin talk of a possible attempt on his own life when he visits Kyiv later this month 9/
Macron is, however, evidently hoping the new rhetoric will embarrass Le Pen, who had a long history of Putin worship before the Ukr invasion. The Govt spokeswoman, Prisca Thevenot, says it is “quite evident” that Le Pen, unlike Macron, is not “committed to Russia’s defeat” ENDS
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Coming back to @ConStelz exceptional piece in @FT with a few thoughts on French side. @EmmanuelMacron NATO comments were intended as a warning to Russia & an “electro-shock” to Western countries before they stumble into a slow-motion defeat in Ukraine 1/
Senior Elysée sources say Macron’s words were calculated - and driven by a fear the West might be sleep-walking into a slow-motion defeat in Ukraine - forced by further Russian breakthoughs, a long delay in provision of US aid and a possible @realDonaldTrump victory on 5 Nov 2/
Such words were needed to 1/reassure the Ukrainians; 2/ sow doubt in Russian minds; and 3/alert public opinion to the fact that Europe faces a “tipping point” moment in the defence of democracy - comparable to the events of 1938 3/
.@EmmanuelMacron last night lifted
greatest of all taboos on discussion of western efforts to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. Are NATO members ready to send their own forces to fight the Russian invaders? Not yet, Macron said, but the poss should no longer be “excluded” 1/
Macron said boots-on-the-ground question had been raised at emergency summit on western arms supplies @Elysee yesterday. “No consensus” exists at present, he said, but “nothing should be excluded” going forward, “We will do all that it takes to ensure Russia cant win this war” 2/
Senior French sources said Macron’s comments had been intended to reassure Ukraine and to prepare European opinion for a third and troubled year of the second Russian invasion. But most of all they had been intended as words of warning to Vladimir Putin 3/
A thread ahead of this yr @MunSecConf. 2024 is proving to be an exceptionally anxious yr for EU. Resurgent populism, flat growth & concerns over what @realDonaldTrump will do if he returns to power are equalled only by EU's inability or unwillingness to meet these challenges 1/
What makes 2024 unique is how difficult the domestic politics already are in all of EU's key member states: Germany's coalition risks being overrun by unnecessary fiscal constraints and the AfD. The coalition is facing prospective cuts between €40-50bn (1-1.5% of GDP) in 2025 2/
Even worse, EU elections and 3 state elections (Thuringia, Saxony, & Brandenburg) in Sept will likely deliver strong results for AfD. In Sept 2021 AfD got 10%. It now polls >20% (35% in some eastern states) giving it a prominent place in Germany's rapidly changing party system 3/
President @EmmanuelMacron announced yesterday a new agenda of educational, civic, social and economic “rearmament” to revive his flagging second term and defeat what he called the “easy anger”, “lies” and “collective impoverishment” of Marine Le Pen’s @MLP_officiel Far Right 1/
The headline announcements during a marathon press conference included uniforms in all French schools from next year, legal restrictions on children’s use of computers and mobile phones and a new curriculum to instill patriotism & understanding of democracy in French children 2/
President Macron also announced a drive to weaken entrenched economic and professional privileges and monopolies and break down social barriers to advancement in France. He said he wanted to defeat the “that’s-not-for-me” attitude and release the country’s latent energy 3/
Last week's European Council shows that Hungary-EU relations are likely broken beyond repair & ultimately heading towards breaking point. It is wrong to draw any comfort whatsoever from @PM_ViktorOrban decision to enable Ukraine's EU membership talks to begin 1/
Orban's decision to walk out of the room means he does not support Ukraine's EU aspirations. That is an immovable constraint in a process that is *totally* dependant upon unanimity at every single stage 2/
1/ Adoption of negotiating framework for Ukraine/EU talks 2/ Opening & closing of 35 chapters Kyiv must complete to enter EU (look at Turkey) 3/ Final accession treaty which also requires national ratification
.@EmmanuelMacron meets @PM_ViktorOrban for dinner at @Elysee this evening. What the hell is the French President thinking - given its highly, highly unlikely Orban will move? Quick thread after chats with senior French officials on Macron's thinking 1/
First: No one serious in the French system is under any illusions that Orban will move tonight. That's not the point of the meeting. Rather it is to clearly demonstrate that they both agree that they completely disagree 2/
Put differently, it is to show clearly, and to the world, that “there are 26 other EU partners that are without doubt on the side of Ukraine and that Orban is complete isolated.” 3/