Thread by @MassDara

If Ukrainian ammunition and manpower needs are not met, its battlefield position will continue to worsen before reaching a tipping point, possibly by this summer. This is no time for despair; it’s time for urgent action. My latest below⁩ and a brief 🧵 foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/time-r…

To create an effective strategy that capitalizes on Russia’s weaknesses, Western policymakers + observers need to see the Russian military for what it is: not the hapless, broken, depleted force that many wished it would be by now but a dangerous organization advancing in Ukraine

Kyiv now finds itself in a sustainment crisis similar to what Moscow experienced by August 2022. Unlike Russia, Kyiv cannot mobilize its defense industry and quickly scale up production; it must rely on Western military assistance. Ukraine also has a smaller population. /3

I discuss political constraints that Russia has on manpower regeneration, and its eroding ammo advantages by 2025 and 2026 if the Western industrial base hits its targets. This will matter very little if Ukraine is not resourced for 2024. /4

Russia is pulling old equipment from strategic reserve to make up for losses and resource newly created units. Or as I call it, “The Last Ride of the Soviet Army.” It won’t matter if this equipment is old and less effective, if Ukraine is not resourced to destroy it. /5

Ukrainian frontline soldiers are in mounting jeopardy—not because they lack the will to fight or do not know their enemy’s weaknesses, but because of shortfalls in ammunition and manpower. /6

When Ukrainian forces are sufficiently manned, supplied, and entrenched, however, they have shown that they can inflict high costs on Russian forces and frustrate Russia’s ability to convert its on-paper advantages into decisive gains. /7

If the West, specifically the United States, does not want to see the frontline in Ukraine bend or—even worse—break, it must urgently approve aid. And if Kyiv wants to sustain its efforts, it faces difficult choices for manpower regeneration.
/end