Thread by @AKaszon

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump I firmly believe that the war in Ukraine could possibly have been delayed or even prevented entirely by Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump's view of Ukraine's possible NATO membership changed from "I don't care" to a more critical stance.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump The peace negotiations in Turkey would certainly not be undermined.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump There was a need to respond to the war somehow, but the measures taken were not particularly smart and damaged Western hegemony.
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@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump At that time, the media should have informed the European peoples in special programs about the danger of war associated with some decisions and by that I don't just mean rapprochement with the West and the desire to join Nato.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump I am alluding to the security policy ultimatum and the decision not to import uranium from their partners but to produce it in their own country.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump It almost sounded like a threat: Either Ukraine will become a NATO member or Kiev will consider nuclear armament. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany said this in an interview. .dw.com/de/kiew-denkt-…

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump We all know that Ukraine lacked the means to do this, and yet the enrichment of uranium produces materials that could be used to build a bomb.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump This was a reactive provocation to previous provocations from Russia, but Ukraine could not have made a more unwise decision, as geopoliticians tend to think many years in advance.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump The hardliners of the Security Council in Russia then outlined horror scenarios of a Ukraine that might one day be ruled by fascists from the Svoboda Party and which could one day have access to nuclear weapons.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump It was decisions like these that ensured that the hardliners' ideas prevailed in Russia. A coalition with the Swoboda Party should have been ruled out at that time and had far-reaching consequences.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Instead of harshly criticizing this, a law was overturned under Obama's presidency that prohibited the financing of neo-Nazis.

thenation.com/article/politi…

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump In these pictures you can see how Mr. Biden and Mr. Frank Walter Steinmeier shook hands with a co-founder of the Joseph Göbbels Institute for Political Research in a global audience.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Because of Western criticism of the name, the think tank was subsequently renamed the Ernst Jünger Center.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump We all know that certain problems arise during a divorce or a termination of a security partnership, that, if left unresolved, can escalate into a war.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump I am referring to the Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimea, which could not have continued to exist if Ukraine had joined NATO or the EU. Many suppliers to the Russian arms industry came from eastern Ukraine, to name two examples of points of contention that remained open.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Perhaps just a small part of Crimea could have been ceded to Russia for a reasonable sum, if the conversation had been sought, but these are all hypothetical questions.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump The entire Crimea was annexed, which was bad enough, but an all-out war should have been avoided at all costs.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Crimea was subsequently cut off from the water supply and even then it was assumed that the Russians could solve this problem militarily.mdr.de/nachrichten/we…

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Ukraine is now in a very awkward situation! I don't think the war can still be won militarily. In my opinion, Ukraine could lose a lot more than just a few regions in the east if it intends to fight to the last soldier,

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump as this will eventually lead to the front lines collapsing due to the lack of personnel. Russia is a much larger country and can mobilize more people.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump A very interesting tweet that suggests that the Russians will be able to cover their high loss of soldiers.

https://twitter.com/BenjaminBidder/status/1764926486937514375

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump The economist Vladislav Inozemtsev draws a drastic conclusion.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump In many regions of Russia today, “death is the most lucrative use of life.” Anyone who dies at the front at the age of 35 brings in more to their relatives "than they would have earned over the rest of their working life until retirement."

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump According to the IISS, the losses of armored vehicles on the Russian side (3000 units) are lower than their current production rate! Apparently Russia is not getting weaker, but even stronger! iiss.org/online-analysi…

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump The production of bombs also increased enormously. More is produced than Russians consume in Ukraine. This is also the basis of their success at Avdiivka, where 1.5 tons of glide bombs were used en masse.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Iranian-style drone production, which Russia is now producing itself, has been massively ramped up.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Personally, I think that even the destruction of the Crimean Bridge would not stop the Russians' supplies, but would certainly create new problems.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump All you have to do is look at how many rails the Russians laid in eastern Ukraine and where the material came from.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump There are several railway lines under construction and the work is progressing very quickly. One of the railway lines is planned to connect Rostov-On-Don via Mariopol, Berliansk west to Melitopol.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Another is supposed to cross from Kalmiouske with the railway line to Mariopol. I suspect that just a day after a detonation, the Russians would reorganize their supplies overland.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump But what would happen to the people in Crimea? These could be the real losers from such a consideration, as an incredible amount of water and food is needed to supply the over 2 million people who are currently supplied via this bridge.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Mr. Putin already indicated that the delivery of the Taurus would not go unanswered when he let Kim Jong UN marvel at the Russian missiles, and a nuclear-armed North Korea with long-range missiles is a huge thorn in the side of the conservative forces in the USA.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump The problem with this weapon system is not the range but the excessive carrier load in combination with the range, which is why the Taurus cruise missile has been on the list of potential carriers of weapons of mass destruction in the US since 2005.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump Let's take the W31 nuclear warhead as an example. The weight is 408-429 kg. The Taurus' carrier load is sufficient for this, but no one would fire a cruise missile with a nuclear warhead on their own territory.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump That's why the Taurus cannot be compared with the delivery of the Sormshadows from our partners. Although their carrier load is quite high, their range is significantly lower, which is why they cannot be fired deep into Russian territory.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump In addition, China is watching us very closely to see whether we have enough anti-ship weapons that we could supply to the Taiwanese in an emergency, and those weapons include the Taurus, of which we germans don't have many.

https://twitter.com/WangLutongMFA/status/1762075967563190357

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump In my opinion, a mutually acceptable compromise should be found as quickly as possible, and a Mr. Trump who is perceived as unpredictable could probably achieve a significantly more advantageous compromise for the Ukrainians than a predictable Mr. Biden.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump I have high hopes for his negotiating skills. The Ukrainians' negotiating position has deteriorated over the course of the war and the Russians may therefore want to demand more cities, but if no compromise can be found, things could turn out much worse!

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump All the Trump haters should ask themselves the following question.

https://twitter.com/AKaszon/status/1766351406124904842

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump They should ask Mr. Biden why the 8,000 armored vehicles lying around in warehouses are being scrapped instead of being delivered to Ukraine at the scrap metal price.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump In my opinion, the goal was never for Ukraine to win this war. Whether arms deliveries bring early peace depends on how many of them are delivered. If one side thinks that the momentum is on their side,

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump this war will continue forever, but the politicians are not even capable of that. Russia is currently on the rise.

@PM_ViktorOrban @realDonaldTrump @threadreaderapp unroll