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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Mar 12 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The wonders of Russian VKS "Virtual Attrition" are on display here.

It is far more likely what we are seeing here is the shortage of engine spares after two years of war rather than a bird strike.

Virtual Attrition🧵
1/
Airpower is the most vulnerable military arm to lack of spares due to the rapidness of wear out.

Ukraine compelling higher usage rates on fewer VKS A-50/IL-76 air frames is as good as shooting them down.

And Russian air power has been riddled by fake spare parts and overhaul
2/
...scams for the entirety of Putin's misbegotten rule. Now we are seeing the downstream effects.

Note that "Virtual Attrition" is not limited to high tech aircraft.

Western tanks & fighting vehicles are suffering this as well.

3/
The Leopard 2A6 has suffered spares shortages such that Ukraine has recently lost one to a minor technical issue when tank recovery assets were not immediately available.

4/
Most post-Cold War tanks and other fighting vehicles simply didn't have spares built at Cold War levels and the move to the 2 level maintenance model de-skilled Western military maintainers in favor of contractors.

The recently lost Leo2A6 in Ukraine reflects this change.

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The mass usage of FPV drones as "THE WAY MODERN WARS ARE FOUGHT" means we will be seeing far more "Virtual Attrition" of Western ground combat vehicles to match what we are now seeing with Russian aircraft.

6/6
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 12
The human face of "Virtual Attrition" is called an "operational accident."

When you use your instructor cadre in combat, like the VKS has been doing. There are downstream consequences.

Consequences Nazi German & Imperial Japanese pilots faced in the 1944 "turkey shoots."

1/
The adoption by the 8th AF of radar bombing in the Winter/Spring of 1943 - 1944 killed dozens of low flight time newbie pilots because the Luftwaffe lacked the fuel to give them bad weather/night instrument piloting skills.

Ultra code breaking revealed this in real time.
2/

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Poor Russian VKS signals security is likely telling Ukraine & Western intelligence a similar pilot training story today.

The corruption related failure of Russian Azart digital spread spectrum radios is only only the tip of this sigint iceberg.


3/3 End
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 3
The reality of this video is this:

FPV drones are a guided munition cheap enough to hunt individual soldiers.

At $300 to $500 each, and only 1 in 10 hitting, they are logistically far cheaper than 155mm artillery per battle death inflicted.

1/
Russian Telegram accounts report that for;

"...every killed Russian (who is recognized as dead, and not listed as missing) payments from of the state budget of the Russian Federation at the level of 12.4 million rubles (7.4 insurance + 5 "presidential" payments).

2/
There are also various additional payments in different regions, then survivor's pensions, etc. That is, the minimum losses/expenses of Russians for every 200- That's at least $130,000.

This includes collateral costs for recruiting a new "logistic", destroyed cargo

3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 3
The inability of many in the Western military/intelligence space to miss the logistical importance of barge traffic is proverbial at this point.

The WW2 Normandy Transportation campaign and the WW2 Oil campaign both missed German barge traffic

1/
...until the last 1/4 1944 & the 1st 1/4 of 1945.

Powered & towed barges have always been the go-to logistical tool for military powers without air superiority/in a contested air environment.

2/
The WW2 Imperial Japanese military is another case in point.

2/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 25
There has been only one self defense jammer powerful enough to deal with an S-200's SQUARE PAIR illuminator.

That was the 1960's ALQ-122 SNOE on the B-52H Phase IV ECM suite prior to the mass Soviet deployment of pulse doppler fighter radars.

SNOE stands for

1/
...Smart Nose Operated Equipment

Alfred Price's AOC history covering the late Cold War make clear this high power jammer was a deception jammer attacking sidelobes as well as the main lobe of the SQUARE PAIR.

Hence SNOE was a humorous anagram for snowing a radar screen
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As for the Russian A-50U, it was never equipped with a powerful jammer for defeating continuous wave illumination for good and sufficient reasons.

Starting with the fact that the S-200 was a very low probability threat.

See:



3/key.aero/article/beriev…
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 25
Now that Ukraine has confirmed its use of a S-200/SA-5 Gammon.

We can discuss what this video tells us about the RuAF A-50 crew, the planes equipment and what shot it down.

First, it shows 80 plus seconds of irregular countermeasures release.

1/
80 seconds is neither consistent with a computer controlled electronic countermeasures system nor with Russian friendly fire incident as Buk, S-300, S-350, and S-400 missile travel to between Mach 6.7 to Mach 7 within their engagement envelope.

2/

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We saw flares in the video, but it is certain that radar chaff was also released, but was unseen in the dark.

As a 5V28 missile of the S-200/SA-5 has a radar signature rivaling a Mig-25 Foxbat.

This extended A-50 countermeasures release _is_ consistent with a S-200
3/

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Read 13 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 14
It is not surprising that Russia lost another landing ship to a Ukrainian Magura V5 drone wolf pack.

What is puzzling is the lack of escorts or any evidence of defensive fire by the “Cezar Kunikov“ in the Ukrainian attack videos.

(Crimea is _NOT_ autonomous from Ukraine😉)
1/
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Apparently the sea lines of communication off of Alusha east of Sevastopol & Yalta was considered out of range of Ukraines boat-drones by the Black Sea Fleet.

And it was complacent that Ukraine would not find a way to refuel or ferry some Magura V5

2/
...close enough to pull off this operation with converted jet-skis.

The failure of the Black Sea Fleet to use even motor launches with heavy machine guns and light autocannons like the UK Royal Navy did for its coastal convoys in WW2 when faced with German E-boats...

3/

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Read 5 tweets

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