Mike Madrid Profile picture
Mar 12 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
It’s hard to underscore how significant the creation of a ‘Border Security Group’ by Democrats is.

It’s potentially transformative for Democrats who have been losing Hispanic voters since 2012.
Read this article carefully. It correctly describes the party’s decision to emphasize immigration as a driving issue to Latino voters.

This is perhaps the most tragically flawed strategic decision I’ve witnessed by either major political party in decades. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
Since the high water mark of Democratic Latino support under Obama, Democrats have been losing shares of Latino voters.

In three of the last four general elections Latinos have either shifted towards Republicans or maintained historically high levels of GOP support
Immigration has never polled high in the minds of Latino voters except in partisan surveys that Democrats and affiliated groups relied on - to their detriment.

No credible pollsters would have advised Democrats lean into this issue the way they have.
Because no one questioned the data, polling and advice Democrats have literally been messaging to the fastest shrinking share of the Latino electorate since 2012.

They’re now reaping the fruits of those decisions.
It is unconscionable that Democrats are suffering historic losses of Latino votes to Donald Trump but it’s happening because no one questioned the bad strategy of moving left when Latino voters were quantifiably moving right.
Again, losing record shares of Latino voters should have been enough of a red flag but losing them to Donald Trump should have been a five alarm fire going off.

But there wasn’t a peep beyond denial that anything was wrong
The shift towards humane but stringent border security - led by Latino members, border representatives & marginal seat members may be the wake up call the Democrats have needed and just in time.
Again, Latino voters (like all Americans) increasingly want border security. They feel the problem and want it resolved.

The problem Democrats have had with moving to the left to appeal to Latinos has always been wrong- but now a decade of data can no longer be ignored & denied
I will be explain why this happened in 2012, the flaw in Democratic polling and research that led to this but for the moment suffice it to say it appears the adults in the room have finally realized they’ve been misled.

Thank God.

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More from @madrid_mike

Nov 3
The Selzer poll was a big bolt of lightning and thunder in a race defined by very little movement in polling numbers.

This is great news for Harris -no other way to spin it. Great for the narrative, momentum & even if the numbers aren’t perfectly accurate they show big movement
Why does that matter in swing states? Well Almost all of the movement in this poll towards Harris came from Republicans and Independent women.

In fact the poll shows Trump losing 11% of GOP voters in one of the whitest most conservative states in the country.
The Selzer poll can also be viewed as a good sample of this critical bloc of voters in swing states - a key group Harris needs to overperform with in order to win.

So why is there such big movement in Iowa and not other swing states?
Read 4 tweets
Oct 28
The racial slurs at Trumps rally in Madison Square Garden could cost him the election. Why?

First, even if it just moves Pennsylvania marginally its game over and it’s likely to move Latino’s and Republicans there.

Puerto Ricans are the largest Latino plurality in PA and
Harris is doing best in PA with Latinos of all the swing states.

PA had huge Latino rightward shifts in 2020 & 2022 meaning there was a lot of Democratic crossovers to Republicans. That existing registration history suggests they can also be brought back.
450K Puerto Rican voters in PA (33,500 in Allentown alone)

Just a few points return of these voters could be a disaster for Trump and Bad Bunny, Marc Anthony, Jennifer Lopez, Residente and Geraldo Rivera weighing in can move 1-3 points.

Moreover…
Read 6 tweets
Oct 8
There are three issues proven to move Republican voters past ‘The Bannon Line’ from 2020.

January 6
The Big Lie
Dobbs

Focus on these three issues and you win the race. Harris can pass the Bannon line and get a record number of Republican votes.
You do not need a permission structure to defend your body or your country.

I’m deeply honored & grateful for those Republicans who have the courage to step forward against Trump. Everything helps at this moment.

But let’s be clear - we’re way past a ‘permission structure’
We’re not selling toothpaste folks.

The threat to our country and our rights is existential and that’s why 17-20% of Republicans were peeling off Trump - before Nikki Haley, before Liz Cheney, before the convention.

Republican defections will win this race for Harris but…
Read 6 tweets
Sep 29
So what’s going on with the Latino vote?

Another credible poll comes out showing Trump gaining ground.

It’s not a methodology problem. No it’s not a sample size problem.

It’s really. So what gives?
Here’s the latest poll that came out today.

No doubt there’s gonna be some panic and the talking heads are gonna start telling us the polls bad for whatever reasons they can conjur up. nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
But folks this comes just days after Pew Research put out a poll showing a problem also (Trump up to 39%) pewresearch.org/race-and-ethni…
Read 12 tweets
Aug 14
The biggest tell is the first paragraph “The very early polling on a Harris-Trump election suggests a reset in the fight over Latino voters. The Hispanic electorate now looks more in line with the other Trump-era elections of 2020 and 2022 than with a wide partisan realignment.”
The 2020 and 2022 campaigns were the ‘partisan realignment’…(not really sure what that means actually)

This isn’t a reset as much as it’s a return to a historically low range of a Democratic nominees support level at this point in the race.
A 37% support level for Trump is not good - no matter how it’s being spun.

As I’ve been saying, that’s the number to watch, it’s really what matters.

This polling matches what Biden’s pollsters put out last week in The New Republic so what does that mean?
Read 8 tweets
Aug 10
A PAC supporting Kamala Harris is up with a new ad focused on housing and homeownership - take a look and let’s discuss how this effects Latino voters shall we?
More than any other policy specific on the economy homeownership explains Latino men drifting to the GOP - homeownership is central to both the Latino economy and is a critical first step into the middle class.

The Biden years have been tough on Latinos here
Interest rates have tripled & inflation has chopped off 20% of the dollars value in recent years.

This has crushed the home building industry where 1 in 5 Latino men are employed in construction or related fields.

That’s a massive number.
Read 6 tweets

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