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Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Mar 13 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
People trying to downplay Russias improved ISR capabilities are missing the boat. Just because something existed for a long time doesn’t mean it isn’t improved. Fucks sake.
Especially an issue where improvement is fixing communication friction. Do people really think thats something that cannot be addressed? Cutting down time from observation to engagement is, like, normal.
Really, the problem here, is that Ukraine had all of this time to develop systems to deal with the drones while they were hindered by systemic communication problems, but since that was never done we are seeing the impact of those systemic problems being alleviated.
How many times did we see footage of drones spotting high value targets and then the russian strike being, like, the next day, when the object had moved already. Then they edited the video to make it look like a kill. Well, now that strike is 30 minutes later.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Mar 9
Here are losses I could identify today.

That one video was pretty bad for the Russians.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Image
I generally suspect Russia's offensive was planned to last around 7 months, based strictly on their past behavior and nothing more. Which means I expect these levels of losses to go on for another 6 weeks or so, followed by going back to a more normal like handful per day.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 5
For people who don’t know, this is a classic example of propaganda. This is how they attack things that damage them. They use troll farms and bots to post comments like this, trying to show a “grassroots” disagreement. Humans have a natural instinct to overweight disagreement. Image
In other words, when people see a negative comment, they vastly overweight that comment and it changes their opinion of the whole. Even if that negative opinion is nonsense and holds no weight. That’s what these troll farms try to accomplish.
Our schooling system is failing to teach this to people. To watch out and identify this behavior. When you know what they are trying to do, it becomes so obvious and easy to avoid. Plus, you get to mock them.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 16
The goals of the Ukrainian offensive were obvious, and by now I think everyone knows them. To capture Robotyne in the first day, to push to Tokmak, and then to Melitopol. There was arrogance and naivety to it, and it failed. In September people were writing about its failure.
The goals of the Russian offensive were also obvious. To capture Berdychi and Sjeverne in the first day. Then to capture Avdiivka and push to Kurakhove. It was also arrogant and naïve, and it failed. But, I do not see people writing about this failure.
People write about Russia's losses, yes. But not the complete failure of their offensive and their inability to break through defenses and minefields. This was every headline for Ukraine, but for Russia, it is not. Why?
Read 7 tweets
Jan 12
Jesus christ. A Russian T-90M couldnt even hold its own in 1 on 1 combat witha. bradley when it had the first shot and knew the bradley was there. This tank got fucking ganked. Russian tech and training such a shit show they can’t even win a tank versus ifv 1 v 1 w/first shot adv Image
This crew is swiss cheese. the tank is a wreck. ass kicking of the century right here.
I’ve never seen the Russians get this dunked on.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 7
I have many followers who do not follow the Ukrainian war closely, so allow me to give you a brief description of the current situation: Putin is racing against time to finish this war, and he has resorted to using every weapon he has to achieve this. Namely propaganda.
Propaganda has become his primary tool to win. This propaganda is attempting to achieve several things:

1: to breed apathy in western nations
2: to highlight discontent in all nations (even russia)
3: to divide the Ukrainian people
The goal of his propaganda is to not only give up on Ukraine, but to give up on yourself and your own nation. To crush your morale, to make you feel helpless, and to push you to disengage. He wants you to succumb to tribalism and populism.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 4
Guys, Russia releases more FPV footage than Ukraine. Stop spreading this horse shit that they don't. What, you only look at footage that contains vehicles? That's a you problem, not a problem with the data.
What, you only look at footage that is geolocated? Again, that's a you problem, not a problem with the data.
If you actually think Ukraine releases more footage than Russia, its because you're looking at biased content. Full stop. Its just not true, russia releases more.
Read 19 tweets

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