“Start with yourself, Comrade Dugin”
A broadside attack on Alexander Dugin appears in Moskovsky Komsomolets. A couple of quotes and thoughts... 1/ mk.ru/social/2024/03…
"People want to have an income, a pension and peace of mind in the future. And they are offered an eternal battle and endless belt-tightening in a dystopian society literally divided along Brahminical lines. There is an elite - and everyone else." 2/
It's not the first time Ekaterina Sazhneva has attacked the nationalist-weirdo philosopher in MK, but that's significant in itself, that no "hands off" warning was given. For all the "Putin's Brain" nonsense, Dugin is clearly not under a Kremlin krysha 3/ mk.ru/social/2023/11…
Bit what's really striking is that this is not really about Dugin - it's a broadside against all of those talking up the need for mobilisation of the nation, eternal war against the West, etc... which is pretty much what Putin is offering. Sazhneva concludes: 4/
"But the easiest way to cover up the desire for carrion is with beautiful words... It will take several generations to restore what was destroyed by the present. They want to steal the time of our descendants’ lives now." 5/
One of the things that has struck me is that as the state gets increasingly Soviet, the Soviet-era practice of expressing disagreement and opening debate through aesopian means is also returning. In other words... 6/
...talking about the issues of the day by pretending you're talking ab out history, or another country or, say, a high-profile nationalist. Even while the media is in the state's grip now - as in the 70s and 80s - people are still finding ways round its dead hand. 7/
So while I don't want to read too much into one article, remember that this appears in a newspaper with, for example, a larger print run than the NYT and a popular online presence. It's not exactly fringe. And... 8/
...when Sazhneva writes that "We are offered a theoretical hodgepodge of a la Iranian Ayatollahs, Boyar Dumas and ancient Greek Sparta," this sounds strikingly like Putin's current vision. Again, not to be over-stated, but an interesting sign of the times. 9/end
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I was very pleased to be able to play a small, small role in this fascinating expose of Presidential Administration files on various political projects. Read the article (more to come, I understand), but a couple of other points... 1/
Firstly, it is a reminder of the power and scope of the Presidential Administration. I think its position at the heart of the Russian state is often under-rated. In many ways, to put it in Soviet terms, it's the Central Committee Secretariat to the Council of Ministries... 2/
Now, as then, the ministries do the day to day admin, but it's the PA that doesn't just set policy and monitor compliance, it also runs a whole range of essentially political operations and projects, as the exposé details. 3/
Shock! Putin is standing for re-election next year. How could he not, now? Before 2/22 he might have dreamed of stepping back, but he can’t risk it now. A thread. 1/ rg.ru/2023/12/08/put…
Here’s my startling take: he’ll win.
What?
Seriously, while the decision to stand and the inevitability of his win is no surprise, there are some things to watch 2/
Russian elections matter not for the outcome, but how much effort the political machine needs to put into manufacturing the planned result. 3/
Today, 4 November, is Russia’s Day of National Unity, established in 2005, and in the current situation, there’s an attempt to give it a depressing but predictable new spin. A thread. 1/
It was introduced ostensibly to celebrate the events of 1612, when the people's militia under the leadership of a Kuzma Minin and Prince Dmitry Pozharsky liberated Moscow from Polish invaders 2/
In practice, of course, it was to mask the scrubbing from the calendar of the commemoration of the Great October Revolution on 7 November (they’d already renamed it the Day of Accord and Reconciliation, but that never really took off) 3/
The ‘sanctions work/don’t work’ debate is often pretty sterile and distorted by the way some boosters seriously overplayed their likely effects on Russia at the start. A short thread from a non-economist 1/
2/ This was triggered by a characteristically vapid article in today’s govt newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta with the title ‘They got what they deserved. The consequences of the departure of European companies from Russia’ rg.ru/2023/08/07/pol…
3/ Essentially, this is about banks and industrial companies losing business because of sanctions. Nothing about the kinda-expropriation of Danone and Carlsberg, for example bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
This is a particularly bad take, epitomising a dangerous kind of triumphalism that also does Ukraine no favours. A short thread 1/
Take away Russia’s nuclear weapons – for Putin is finished and his country may soon collapse telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/1…
"Vladimir Putin is finished... He might struggle on for a few more weeks, even months." What possible evidence is there for assuming there could be regime change in weeks? 2/
The answer: "Potential successors are manoeuvring openly. Big companies are building private armies. Whole regions of Russia are laying the ground for independence referendums." Yet none of this is true... 3/
I’ve enjoyed @ThreshedThought’s HOW TO FIGHT A WAR: it’s an intro to warfare that manages to be accessible without being simplistic, well worth a read. It also has strong resonance with what’s happening in #Ukraine 1/
The centrality of a credible strategy is a recurring theme. It is still shocking just how ill-thought-through Putin’s initial strategy was, but we have to recognise that, given its practical and political constraints, the Kremlin has now landed on a relatively viable Plan B 2/
In other words, trying to outlast Ukrainian and Western will and capacity. I don’t think it will work, but it makes sense in its own way. Does the West (as opposed to Ukraine) have a viable strategy to match beyond a slow expansion of industrial production? I’m not so sure 3/