Key messages from Macron:
- There had been too many limits in our vocabulary. Those who say let's not support Ukraine do not make the choice of peace, they make the choice of defeat.
- About sending troops: We're not in that situation today but all these options are possible. ⬇️
- The continent's security is at stake and the conflict is existential for our Europe and for France. Russian victory in Ukraine would reduce Europe's credibility to zero.
- Russian victory in Ukraine would reduce Europe's credibility to zero we have no security. 2/
if the situation should deteriorate, we would be ready to make sure that Russia never wins that war. 3/
“We are going to survey all the countries in the world (...) their available stocks and we are offering them to buy it back" 4/
"Europeans are also working on the coordinated supply of various materials, from artillery to anti-aircraft defense, including through the direct production of equipment in Ukraine." 5/
"We are ready, we have an established nuclear doctrine and when it comes to nuclear matters, few words are needed" 6/
“Our nuclear capacity firstly gives security to the French and to the French that few countries in the world have. It gives us a responsibility, that of being a power equipped with this weapon and therefore never being in the escalation."
"Without certainty, today, Russia is an adversary. The Kremlin regime is an adversary. I have always said it, we are not waging war on Russia and the Russian people and we support Ukraine."
"We are doing everything so that it can defeat Russia because I will tell you very simply that there is no lasting peace if there is no sovereignty, a return to the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine and including Crimea."
"If Russia wins this war, Europe's credibility will be reduced to zero. What would be the credibility on our soil of a European Union power whose members would have allowed this to happen?"
"Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Latvians, the Romanians, could the Bulgarians stay in peace for a second? And I'm not even talking about Moldova which, certainly, is not in the European Union today, but which would be threatened the second."
"What is happening in Ukraine today, if it has France's vital interests, there is a danger. The security for France, the security of Europe and the security of the French is at stake there"
"We helped 🇺🇦 to resist. But the context on the Ukrainian ground changes. The situation is much more difficult for them. 🇷🇺 is getting tougher at home and is increasing its attacks. And so, yes, I tell you with the greatest solemnity, this start of 2024 must be a start for us."
If we decide today to be weak, if faced with someone who has no limits, faced with someone who has crossed all the limits he'd given us, we naively say to him: I will not go further than this or that. At that moment, we are not choosing peace. We are choosing defeat.
“I want our compatriots to understand that there is only one person responsible for the situation we are in: it is the Kremlin regime."
Don't forget to subscribe to my Substack - Russia Analyzed - for the latest insights and analysis on Russian foreign and security policy and the war against Ukraine. lnkd.in/g9JA28US
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Macron is taking the European leadership seriously, a truly Churchillian speech:
"We negotiated as much as we could, but there is nothing to talk about with him [Putin], Ukraine must win. There will be no red lines. I am the President of France and I decide"
"European security is at stake and the conflict is existential for our Europe and for France. Russian victory in Ukraine would reduce Europe's credibility to zero". added Macron
Don't forget to subscribe to my substack - Russia Analyzed - for the latest insights and analysis on Russian foreign and security policy and the war against Ukraine. lnkd.in/g9JA28US
Gasoline prices have gone up in Russia - AI-95 type costs more than 60,000 rubles per ton - the highest since September 2023.
The main reason for rising prices is the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. 1/3⬇️
Russia has reintroduced a ban on gasoline exports for six months since March 1. However, the cost of fuel on the stock exchange is rising. The current increase in exchange prices is so far caused by concerns about the balance of supply and demand due to drone attacks. 2/3
The buyers started purchasing more fuel in an attempt to insure themselves from supply disruptions. 3/3
WSJ has obtained a draft peace deal from 2022 between Ukraine and Russia. Numerous hugely detrimental provisions to Ukraine's sovereignty:
- Ukraine, while being allowed to pursue EU membership, wouldn’t be allowed to join military alliances such as NATO. 1/5
- No foreign weapons would be allowed on Ukrainian soil.
- Russian-occupied Crimea would remain under Moscow’s influence and not be considered neutral.
- The future of the area of eastern Ukraine wasn’t included in the draft. 2/5
- Moscow wanted Ukraine’s armed forces capped at 85,000 troops, 342 tanks and 519 artillery pieces. Ukrainian negotiators wanted 250,000 troops, 800 tanks and 1,900 artillery pieces, according to the document. 3/5
THREAD - A very insightful read by FT on the Russian leaks, 29 secret Russian military files drawn up between 2008 and 2014:
Criteria for a potential nuclear response range from an enemy incursion on Russian territory to more specific triggers, such as the destruction of 20 percent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines. 1/7
The defensive plans expose deeply held suspicions of China among Moscow’s security elite even as Putin began forging an alliance with Beijing, which as early as 2001 included a nuclear no-first-strike agreement. 2/7
Yet even as China and Russia became closer, the training materials show Russia’s eastern military district was rehearsing multiple scenarios depicting a Chinese invasion. 3/7
In this post, I will elaborate on pressing challenges for Ukraine and the West that need to be addressed:
- The West has to devise a comprehensive, long-term strategy for Ukraine, recognizing that the conflict is unlikely to end quickly. 1/19 ⬇️
- The current approach lacks determination and decisiveness and is primarily reactive to immediate needs.· “As long as it takes” is a flawed approach that leads to failure - Russia mobilized its economy, secured drone/ammo supplies from Iran and North Korea 2/19
relatively stabilized the frontline and has a strategic initiative. Western countries should effectively coordinate and synchronize their efforts, especially in shell, ammunition and drone production. 3/19
In this tweet, I will elaborate on Russia’s strategy in 2024.
Here is the strategic outlook:
Russia’s major effort will remain to capture all of Donbas and consolidate its control over newly occupied territories of Ukraine, cementing the occupation regimes there. 1/18 ⬇️
Furthermore, Moscow will continue to erase Ukrainian identity through “Russification” including indoctrination in schools, forced passportization, eradication of the Ukrainian culture, etc. in the occupied areas. 2/18
- Russia will persistently carry out missile and drone strikes against Ukraine for 3 main reasons: 1. Instill fear and demoralize civilians in order to diminish support for the resistance and the will to fight. 3/18