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Edward Hunter Christie Profile picture
Mar 14 32 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1-x

A few points from President Macron's television interview with TF1 and France2 (link at end).

Rough summary, not chronological.

Journalist asks if he rules out sending troops to Ukraine

Macron: "Are you sitting down now? Do you rule out standing up after this interview?"
2-x

The journalists then try to pin Macron down quite aggressively - where, when, what. But that's evidently not the purpose.
3-x

Macron is laying out a direction, as I had described it some days ago:
The Defence Minister had "ruled out" anything beyond technical assistance.
Macron explains: the Minister described only what was decided at this time. Not what may come.

4-x

The journalists try to pin Macron down on what conditions would lead to further steps.

Macron deliberately doesn't draw red lines and he explains that he won't.
But there is a strategic goal: Russia must not win. And to achieve that, options must be wider.
5-x

He recalls that Western govts had previously said: never lethal aid; then never tanks; then never missiles; then never aircraft. All have happened.

He adds: what was unthinkable a few years ago is no longer unthinkable.

Hint: get used to it & nothing is off the table.
6-x

He recalls the 5 new areas of agreed cooperation among Allies confirmed in Paris end February:

Demining; defence production & repairs; deploy civilian personnel at the Belarussian and Moldovan borders; and defensive cyber operations -- all of these on Ukrainian soil.
7-x

The 5 areas are indeed on the Elysee website's conference conclusions page.

However, the description of civilians being deployed to both borders is more detailed than what I had understood from the reporting from the conference.

elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
Image
8-x

Now Macron says, in essence, that's decided, the 5 activities above, they are decided.
That was the start of a deliberate rebound ("sursaut").

And we also have to consider going further, if circumstances require.
9-x

At an earlier point in the interview, he also notes that it's not a matter of him wanting to deploy forces.
He would rather not have to, but that the whole problem would be solved if Putin withdrew his forces from Ukraine.
10-x

The journalists then hammer again: yes but as soon as you mentioned deploying troops, other leaders contradicted you, and it is the big question the French people, too, would like to know the answer to.
11-x

Macron:
"We will do what is necessary to reach our objective. Because if Russia were to win, the lives of the French people would change."
"Who can think for one second that President Putin, who has respected no limits and none of his commitments, would stop there?"
12-x

Macron:
"The security of Europe and the security of the French people are at play in Ukraine."
13-x

Macron mentions Russian cyber-attacks on the French health system, he says that certain hospitals experienced dysfunctions that lasted "for days".

He also mentions Russian economic warfare using energy and food that have harmed people across Europe.
14-x

Macron:
"If Russia wins this war, the credibility of Europe will fall to zero."
"What would the credibility of the European Union as a power and of its members be, having let that happen on its soil?"
15-x

Macron:
"And what would our security be? Do you think that the Poles, the Lithuanians, the Estonians, the Latvians, the Romanians, the Bulgarians would be able to remain at peace for one second? And I'm not even mentioning Moldova."
16-x

Journalist: so you're saying Putin wouldn't stop at Ukraine?
Macron: "in our [European] past we've known regimes that killed opponents at home, were authoritarian, and had the will to conquer everything that one would let them conquer."
17-x

"He won't stop. What I'm saying here finds complete consensus. From President Biden to the German Chancellor, all of the European leaders say what I'm saying here [that Putin will not stop at Ukraine]."
18-x

Journalist: so, only force - be it French, European, NATO, can stop him? And we must stop him in Ukraine?
19-x

Macron: "Today, to use an old expression from Churchill, we need to have the sinews of peace: to want peace is to not choose defeat. To want peace today is to not drop Ukraine."

Journalist: it's to wage war?
20-x

Macron: "No. It's to be credible, strong, and ready, to adapt to the choices that Russia will make. So, should the war widen, that would be the sole choice and the sole responsibility of Russia."
21-x

"But for us to decide today to be weak, to decide that we wouldn't respond, that's already to be in defeat."
22-x

Will add extra posts and commentary to this thread later.

Link:
23-x

Macron explains there's a political process, just like there've been others before.
That the Czech President is like-minded, that the Lithuanian President is like-minded.
And he suggests this may grow and that it's his responsibility to France to get this moving.
24-x

Macron says there'll be no durable peace unless Ukraine freedom and territory are fully restored.
Does that include Crimea? Yes.
He foresees a negotiation led by Ukraine.
But the end state must be full territorial integrity, or else France will not be secure.
25-x

Macron criticises Slovak PM Fico for being very close to Russia and for having told the press that there was a secret plan to send combat troops to Ukraine.
26-x

Macron explains that he needs to make everyone realise that the situation is changing, changing fast, and in a bad direction.
And that he will next go to Berlin to talk with Chancellor Scholz and Polish PM Tusk in that direction.
27-x

"We're now at a time of resistance."
"If Russia were to continue its escalation, if the situation were to deteriorate, we must be ready, and we shall be ready, to take the decisions that are necessary so that Russia never wins."
28-x

On the political opponents in France who abstained or voted against the France-Ukraine security agreement:

"To choose to abstain or to vote against help to Ukraine is not to choose peace. It is to choose defeat."
29-29

The interview also had a brief segment on nuclear signalling (where Macron projected calmness and a serious sense of responsibility), on defence industry questions (in Ukraine and at EU level), and it ended with a segment on the Israel-Gaza War.

Comment 1:

Churchill's Sinews of Peace speech is also known as the "Iron Curtain Speech".
It was made in 1946 in the United States.
It was about the emerging international order, the Anglo-American alliance, and the rapidly rising Soviet threat.
Comment 2:

That Macron would use the expression 'sinews of peace' ("nerf de la paix") suggests a vision based on strength and deterrence in order to achieve peace.
And here's a user-made English translation of the entire interview:

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More from @EHunterChristie

Mar 9
1-6

Pekka is right to classify Pope Francis as a Vatnik, i.e., "a steadfast jingoistic follower of propaganda from the Russian government", as the formal definition goes.

But I see a larger problem: organised Christianity has been subverted from the top down.
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Catholicism is led by a Kremlin-friendly imbecile.

Orthodox Christianity is sullied by the Russian Orthodox Church in all its forms and manifestations.

American evangelical communities are penetrated by cult-like attitudes towards Donald Trump.

A most ungodly landscape.
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To the political agitators who've captured religious institutions, I say this:
You do not define Christianity.
And you will pay a heavy price for your sins.
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Scholz torn down in the UK for his antics

Strong language from the former Chair of the Defence Committee Tobias Ellwood in the Telegraph, and Ben Wallace, former Def Sec, and Alicia Kearns, current Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, in the Standard.

(sources at end)
2-7
Ben Wallace:
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3-7
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Read 11 tweets
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In my view, there is no reasonable doubt that Donald Trump's genuine intention is to abandon NATO and to allow Russia to destroy Ukraine and brutalise all of Europe.

John Bolton was with Trump in 2018 when he came close to leaving NATO.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
2-20
As Trump's National Security Adviser, Bolton had very many discussions with Trump - this was not a matter of just one angry day in Brussels.

Also, it was not a ploy by Trump to push Europeans to spend more to improve NATO, as some rear-guard defences of Trump claim. Image
3-20
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All of our social media spaces are penetrated by troll farms run by foreign hostile states, especially Russia.
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And we have no clue how many there are.
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This affects everything. It changes the behaviour of all content creators, from established media to independent creators -- because hostile states can artificially boost some ideas, and some political candidates, over others.
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This has been going on for years. And as political subversion deepens, it is increasingly being done by Western people against their own countries.
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Jan 28
1-19

An important warning from Jakub Janda of a very plausible scenario.

We should not allow our national discussions to assume a central scenario of a Russian attack only in several years' time.

Further warning and ideas for victory 🧵
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We must all plan, also, for a worst case scenario of cataclysm right away in 2025.
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3-19

And with Russian war production running high, Russia would have battle-hardened forces freed up, and a lot of firepower, quickly thereafter.
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Read 19 tweets
Jan 27
1-19

This analysis by @anneapplebaum captures exactly the nature of the problem that Ukraine and ultimately the entire Western world are going through due to the dysfunction of American politics.
Her full text in this 🧵

This is the edge of the abyss.

msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
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"As I write this I am in Warsaw, 170 miles from Poland’s border with Ukraine. The front line, where Ukrainians are right now fighting and dying, is another 450 miles beyond that. Not so far, in other words. A long day’s drive."

(A. Applebaum / The Atlantic)
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"I am well within range of Russian missiles, the kind that have hit Kyiv, Odesa, and Lviv so many times over the past two years."

(A. Applebaum / The Atlantic)
Read 19 tweets

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