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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Mar 17 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Russian forces likely captured Tonenke (west of Avdiivka) and Nevelske (southwest of Avdiivka) no later than March 16. (1/3)

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2/ Geolocated footage published on March 15 shows that a Russian armored column recently advanced west of Tonenke, and additional geolocated footage published on March 16 shows elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st DNR AC) advancing into and raising a flag in Nevelske.Image
3/ The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating near Avdiivka stated on March 15 that Russian forces near Avdiivka are innovating and changing classical Wagner Group-style infantry-led “meat assaults” with assaults using armored vehicles to increase and maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian forces. isw.pub/UkrWar031624Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 19
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed occupied Crimea 10 years ago, setting conditions for the full conquest of Ukraine Putin still seeks. 🧵(1/6)


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2/ Putin signed an illegal annexation treaty with Crimean occupation officials on March 18, 2014, after Russian soldiers without identifying insignia (also known colloquially as “little green men” and, under international law, illegal combatants)...
3/ ...swiftly and quietly invaded Crimea in February 2014.

Russian occupation officials staged a false and illegitimate referendum in Crimea on March 16, 2014, calling on Russia to annex Crimea.
Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 18
Unspecified actors launched a drone at a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova, on March 17 amidst an assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova from within. (1/5)
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2/ ISW cannot independently verify the details of the singular drone strike in Transnistria or identify the responsible actors, but it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces conducted the strike given the limited means used in the strike and the insignificant target.
3/ Ukrainian officials have also recently stated that Transnistria does not pose a military threat to Ukraine.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 18
NEW: French President Emmanuel Macron underlined the necessity for European countries to continue supporting a Ukrainian victory against Russia in order to ensure Ukrainian and European security. 🧵(1/4)

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2/ Macron stated in a March 16 interview with Ukrainian TV channels 1+1 and My-Ukraina that there will be “no peace in Europe if Ukraine is forced to capitulate.”
3/ Macron called on European countries to speed up military assistance deliveries to Ukraine and stated that a “lasting peace” will restore the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine and guarantee the security of Ukraine and all of Europe.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 16
NEW: The Ukrainian State Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a series of successful drone strikes against three Russian oil refineries in Samara Oblast on March 16. 🧵1/7 Image
2/ All-Russian pro-Ukrainian volunteers continue limited cross-border raids into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.
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3/ Russian authorities appointed Boris Kovalchuk, the son of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reported “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk, to a position within the Russian Presidential Administration.
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 16
Pressing shortages in air defense systems and missiles will likely dramatically reduce Ukraine’s ability to defend against Russian strikes both in rear and frontline areas in the coming weeks if not addressed rapidly. (1/7)
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2/ @washingtonpost reported on March 15 that Ukrainian policymakers conveyed to Western official sources that Ukraine may use up some of its air defense systems by the end of March.
3/ The Ukrainian officials reportedly stated that Ukraine has previously aimed to shoot down 4 out of every 5 missiles that Russian forces launch at Ukrainian rear cities but that Ukrainian air defense shortages may force Ukraine to only target 1 out of every 5 Russian missiles.
Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Mar 16
NEW: Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defensive lines in spring 2024 while also preparing for a forecasted new offensive effort in summer 2024. (🧵1/12)

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2/ The provision of Western security assistance will likely play a critical role in Ukraine’s ability to hold territory now and to repel a new Russian offensive effort in the coming months.
3/ Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have shown that they can prevent Russian forces from making even marginal gains during large-scale Russian offensive efforts.
Read 12 tweets

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