Thread by @Jonpy99

1/ As promised, here's a final thread on some cavets on stored AFVs. I mainly want to talk about specialized BTR and BMP vehicles and AFVs that will never see the frontline and shouldn't really be taken into account.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1769272097610604757?s=20

2/ So, first let's talk about BTRs and BMPs. When I wrote my thread on MT-LBus I said that most likely all of them are non-combat variants. One key thing to notice that is that they're all stored at artillery arsenals

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1766827005603910066?s=20

3/ where besides artillery pieces only related artillery support is stored. But at many of these artillery storage depots there are also many BTR and BMP looking vehicles.

https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1737609204716978178?s=20

4/ These are all types of artillery support, command, communications, radar stations and such armored vehicles. For example, at Omsk we can see what might be BTR-60 based 1V18/1V19s artillery observation vehicles: prewar vs January 2024.

5/ and BMP-based PRP-3s artillery observation vehicles: prewar vs January 2024. As you can see, barely any of these has been removed.

6/ Some more examples: more 1V18/1V19s at the 126th arsenal: prewar vs June 2023.

7/ In the case of these 43 vehicles at the 1295th base, which until now have been classified as BMP-1s, I think they are BREM-2s. I might be wrong tho.

8/ In any case, IMHO based on their locations and sometimes in their hull appareance, I think out of all BMPs we found in the updated AFV count to be published, there are close to 900 vehicles that are actual engineer, artillery and other variants, not actual BMPs.

9/ Samewise, based on the same reasoning, I think up to 1,600 stored BTR could actually be specialized variants too. That would explain why they aren't being deployed.

10/ As you can already guess, if true, this is huge, as it changes the nature of a huge chunk of the stored Russian AFV fleet and makes an enormous part of them into armor completely useless in combat.

11/ These are included in our BMP and BTR count tho, as they can always be turned into combat variants or use as spare parts donors for actual BMPs and BTRs.

https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1756376660968907217?s=20

12/ With that said let's focus on other uselss armor types. I talked in my threads about BRDM-2s and MT-LBus.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1768900978961523126?s=20

13/ These vehicles, as I already said and as you also know, are totally obsolote and outclassed in any modern conflict. They're useless for anything but rear action, simple as that.

14/ Now, take another look at the prewar count.

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1768925310693601679?s=20

15/ We won't disclose our updated 2023/2024 AFV count yet, but from the 2021 count discard non-combat BMP and BTR variants.

16/ Now discard MT-LBus and BRDM-2s.

17/ Now discard too, let's say, 25% of all hulls from useful armored vehicles, both from broken hulls totally unreparable, vehicles cannibalized for spare parts to keep active ones operational and also a small share for other unpredecible variables.

18/ Of 14,186 AFVs that we counted in storage before the war started, the number of actual combat is now probably halved to half. I want to keep that in mind when the updated count is released.

19/ And that's it for AFV threads! I'm planning on making some more threads: one on tanks and why there are probably more T-80s and specially T-62s but less T-72s than in was estimated here:

20/ one on AA systems in storage, an updated count of BTRZs (of the ones with available updated satellite footage) and finally, once @CovertCabal and @HighMarsed release their video on the evolution over time of the depletion of Russian storage bases, a thread with my estimates.

21/ Have a nice day, y'all!

Combat vehicles*