Lots of discussion today on space radiation including errors like this one. This has confused water with regolith. Using too thin a layer of *regolith* creates secondaries, increasing the dose. But using water, or PTFE (lots of hydrogen), even very thin, always reduces the dose/1
2/ The thing about using regolith for shielding is that you use it when you are on the surface of a planet, and there’s so much available and you do t carry it on a spaceship so you have no reason to use a thin amount. It entirely solves the problem!
And…
3/ …if you want shielding on your spaceship you aren’t going to use regolith. You’ll use water, food, rocket propellant — mass you need to carry anyhow — and low-density material designed for shielding with lots of hydrogen. And you can travel *faster* to reduce the dose, too.
4/ Contrary to what OP said, I know tons of NASA engineers and scientists who think we are going to Mars and do not think there is a show-stopping problem with radiation. In fact, I don’t know *a single informed person* who thinks it’s a show stopper.
5/ Part of the reason that NASA does not consider it a show stopper is because the dose limit is an arbitrary line that has huge margins around what we consider acceptable. When I worked on radiation shielding (briefly, many years ago), the limit was set by Congress such that…
6/…the death rate of astronauts would not be higher than steel workers. When we did the math, this meant the lifetime radiation dose had to be low enough that excess rates of leukemia over their lifetime had to be very small. Some astronauts will die of leukemia anyways, and…
7/…you will never know if an astronaut who dies of leukemia later in life would have died of it anyways or if they got it because years earlier they did a Mars mission. But statistically we will see a tiny blip of additional leukemia cases among astronauts so we will know that
8/… *some* of those cases were the result of doing Mars missions. And Congress said that this statistical blip will not exceed the number of lifelong job-related deaths among steel workers. *That* is where the radiation limit came from. It’s not as though…
9/ …astronauts would be dropping dead during the mission or shortly after the mission with blistering skin or anything.🤦♂️ It’s just a tiny statistical effect.
So when we say there’s a challenge with radiation, we mean that it’s hard to make this small statistical blip…
10/ …soooo tiny tiny tiny that it’s safer to be an astronaut than a steel worker.
But even so, I never knew *anybody* in NASA who thought we couldn’t achieve it. When NASA engineers talk about how challenging it is, that’s because they want more funding for their projects…
11/…because they believe their projects *can* solve it. Some want to develop nuclear propulsion to go faster to Mars to reduce the dose (so the blip will be super tiny), so they argue how it is soooo important to fund their project. Others argue for shielding research. Etc.
12/ Apparently, people outside nasa have been listening to this and misunderstood the severity. They thought it meant, wow, we can’t do Mars missions because astronaut’s faces will melt off and it’s sooo bad that we cannot solve it without a miracle. This is totally wrong. /end
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I’m not so sure. The link to the prior estimate is a paper that measures the “blast zone”, which is the region around a lander where the reflectivity of the surface has changed. We have never known exactly what causes this change. Is it from gas blowing the dust texture flat? /1
2/ Or is it from blowing dust plowing across the surface? Or from engine shutoff when the last sputter of the engine cause a low velocity blanket of dust to fly out to a much smaller distance than normal? The problem has always been that this blast zone is *too small* to be…
3/ …the area where the dust finally lands, because the dust in rocket exhaust is going far to fast in low gravity to travel only that far. (We think we might know the cause now, but I don’t want to tell here since we will probably write a paper on it.)
1) The rocket exhaust is expanding into vacuum, so viscosity breaks down, so the gas does not obey the Navier-Stokes equation, which is the basis of CFD (computational fluid dynamics) models. /1
2/ When I was at NASA, one of the things I was doing was writing solicitations to industry to write physics-based code to do CFD without Navier-Stokes. There are many ways to treat the fundamental physics (the Boltzmann Transport Equation) and they all work for different…
3/…approximations, but it is really hard to write a code that will handle the full range of conditions from dense gas inside the rocket nozzle all the way to rarefied gas on the Moon far from the rocket.
2) We don’t understand turbulence when the gas becomes rarefied.
About how the lunar environment makes everything tippier…
1) I’m sure the CLPS contractors know this and designed for it. My point is that the Moon does this to your hardware, so when things go wrong (as they do) then tipping happens more often than on Earth. /1
2/
2) There are different ways you can tip. For static stability, gravity makes no difference. You fall when you are so tilted that the center of gravity (cg) is outside of your footpad. I don’t know where the Nova-C has its cg, but crudely it could handle ~54 degrees tilt.
3/
3) But for dynamic stability, gravity does make a difference. Imagine your vehicle is accidentally moving sideways at touchdown with velocity v. The energy of that motion is (1/2)m v^2 where m is the vehicle’s mass. The vehicle will fall over if that energy exceeds…
I finally submitted this paper to Icarus (planetary science journal). I split it into two papers: “Erosion rate of lunar soil under a landing rocket, part 1: identifying the rate-limiting physics” and “…part 2: benchmarking and predictions.” The breakthrough was in part 1. 1/N
2/ It took 8.5 months from the breakthrough while sitting at McDonalds until I got the paper done. 😭 I had to re-do it several times. 💀
I’m not keeping the info secret before publication, so I’ll go ahead and tell a little here.
3/ We tested jets of gas blowing soil in reduced gravity about 13 years ago. I did about 450 parabolas of lunar, Martian, and zero g, plus 2-g pullouts between parabolas where we did additional experiments. So we got 4 gravity levels.
This is a fun and fascinating thread. I’ll add one thought. Latif says that some objects are dynamical and move about but the “regular” planets & moons aren’t that way, but really it’s just a matter of timescales. Everything changes orbits. 1st read Latif’s thread then mine…🙂/1
2/ An example of a moon that changed orbits: Triton. It is currently a moon of Neptune but previously it was a primary planet orbiting the Sun directly (albeit a small planet…a dwarf planet like Pluto). Neptune captured it!
3/ Another object that may or may not exist, which *if* it exists then *definitely* changed orbits a lot, is the so-called “planet 9” (terribly misnamed so I’ll call it Planet X or PX). PX is thought by some to exist beyond the Kuiper Belt yet to be the size of Neptune.
This was a fun read but I have this response. The piece says that Turner’s Frontier Thesis is a strong motive of people who want to move civilization beyond Earth. But that’s not true. It is merely *adjacent* to the actual strong motives. Discarding it makes no difference. /1
2/ As the article explains. Turner’s thesis is that the US Western frontier created an open democratic society of self-reliant individuals with strong moral fiber. It says the western frontier values diffused back east to keep the rest of the US from falling into degeneracy, too.
3/ The article points out that the thesis has been discarded by historians for a number of reasons, and from reading this piece (which was my first intro to the topic) I agree with discarding it.
Also, it is true that you hear about the value of the frontier in space circles.