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Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 20 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Those who have been following the evolution of drone-on-drone combat know it will not stop with Russians killing Baba-Yaga drones that are extending FPV line of sight radio range.

Very few actual AFU drone crews are being engaged & killed by the Russians.

1/
Meanwhile, many Russian drone crews _ARE_ being hunted and killed by Ukraine.

These are UAS air superiority battles appearing right before our eyes - as Douhet talked about with manned planes a century ago.

The US fighter pilot union is in deep denial about that and the

2/
...whole emphasis on "AI Drone Swarms" in US DoD writing is a form of squid ink to prevent funds for being sent right now to US ground forces to integrate UAV pilot force structure to replicate Ukrainian practice.

The harsh battlefield reality is that pilots have lost

3/
...the Close Air Support (CAS) and shallow Battlefield Air Interdiction (BAI) mission to drones.

The 1960's era 155mm guns of the US Army Artillery branch are in even worse shape as they simply are not cost/mission competitive without cluster munitions.

It sucks to be them.
4/4
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More from @TrentTelenko

Mar 22
James Dunnigan's Strategypage dot com site has a new piece up titled:

"Russia: Can Russia Continue the War After 2024?"


Russian Lanchester Square collapse indicators🧵

1/strategypage.com/qnd/russia/art…
"March 20, 2024: Hard limits are appearing on Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war. It has begun running out of tube artillery (as opposed to rocket artillery) and light armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). The artillery shortage is because tube artillery barrels are
...wearing out, while the light AFV shortage is because so many have been lost in combat."

and later in the article:

"It is highly likely, given Russian corruption and maintenance standards, that only about 3,000 of the nominally available 4,000 pieces of 122mm artillery

2/
Read 10 tweets
Mar 22
Regarding the Biden Administration "Controlled leak" in the FT.

Russia has contributed only about 8% of global refined fuel exports at max,per the CIA.

When Russia chooses to export, which it hasn't since February 2024.

1/5
cia.gov/the-world-fact…
The Jake Sullivan run Biden Adm. NSC's whole FT argument that Ukraine should stop plinking Russian refineries to prevent "oil market instability" is utter nonsense.

The Iranian sponsored Houthi blockade of the Suez has a much much larger "oil market instability" impact.

2/5
Biden won't do anything effective regarding Iran.

Meanwhile the Biden Adm. attempt to restrain Ukrainian refinery strikes is actually doing great damage to American foreign policy credibility in Eastern Europe and particularly in the Baltics.

3/5
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
Read 6 tweets
Mar 22
It has been Biden Administration Russo-Ukrainian War policy to keep the Russian energy sector intact for Western economies.

Ukrainian victory has always been a 3rd tier consideration of Biden's "De-Escalationist" foreign policies behind preserving the Russian energy sector.
1/
What the Biden Adm. did with the UK Financial Times article blotivating about Ukrainian drone strikes was make the strategic mistake of telling the absolute truth that Russian oil is more important to them than Ukrainian victory and European security.

2/
The Biden Administration foreign policy is to keep Russia intact and it's natural resources away from China.

Ukraine was never seen as an allied free European democracy by Biden, Sullivan et al, but rather, a client state to be played in the great game with China.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 22
Translated from Ukrainian:

"Along with the Russian oil refineries, which should no doubt continue to be struck, Ukraine has a number of other easy targets. We are talking about railway transformer substations - their destruction will greatly spoil the logistics of the

1/6
Image
...occupiers. We show the location on the infographic."

FYI -

I strongly suspect the Biden Adm. has been pressuring the Zelensky gov't not to strike Russia's electric train power grid.

2/6
_AND_ is has been a Zelensky gov't talking point that it hasn't gone after the Russian people like Russia has gone after Ukrainian civilians.

US & Ukrainian policies here are PLAIN SILLY.

Ukraine is fighting a war for it's national
existence, not diplomatic talks.

3/6 Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 22
The price the Biden Administration is paying for cutting Ukraine off from U.S. artillery ammunition is zero leverage in Ukraine's targeting of Russian refineries.

It also underlines the fact continued Russian oil production is more important to Biden than Ukraine's victory
1/
What is driving energy inflation isn't Ukraine striking Russian refineries.

Russia isn't exporting distillates. It stopped doing so in February 2024 (See link).

Russian crude exports are still going, if reduced by Western oilfield disinvestment

2/aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/27…
Current energy price inflation is a supply side distribution shock effect downstream of the Houthi closing the Suez to Western energy & goods shipments.

Which I pointed out was coming for the Biden Adm. re-election campaign in January 2024⬇️

3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 21
The inability of the DoD to accept the implications of this FPV drone proliferation for its light infantry power projection forces will get a lot of US soldiers & marines killed.

There aren't enough networked guns, sensors & jammers moving through the procurement system

1/
Image
...geared for the first wave of Paradrop and Heli dropped light infantry.

When I look at the US Army's Airborne Squad vehicle in the age of FPV drones...

2/ Image
...I see it in the role of a Chinese supplied Russian Army Desert cross 1000-3 ATV dying just like this😭⬇️

And I know I'm not the only one who does.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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