NEW: Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited. 🧵(1/5) 
2/ Putin is likely attempting to set conditions to stabilize Russia’s long-term financial position at a higher level of govt. expenditure & is signaling that Russia's long-term financial stability will require imposing at least some pain on some wealthy industrialist siloviki.
3/ The Russian military continues to undertake structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine while expanding Russia’s conventional capabilities in the long term in preparation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO.
4/ Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu outlined several ongoing efforts to bolster Russia’s conventional military capabilities, more likely as part of Russia’s long-term effort to prepare for a potential conventional war with NATO than as part of the war against Ukraine.
5/ Ongoing personnel changes within the Russian MoD may be further indicators of Russia’s preparations for a conflict in the long term.
More in tonight's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar032024
More in tonight's Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar032024
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