Thread by @MatejRisko

Since this is the topic a few words on it:

Su-34 afaik can't carry FAB-3000 and that's because of size (diameter), not weight. There is a 3000kg load certified for the Fullback (Brahmos), but there are safety regulations that afaik do not allow the FAB-3000 to be carried...
1/9

https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1770826713447989250

...and I doubt that will change. The bomb with the largest weight certified for the Su-34 is the KAB-1500 family iirc.
A PGM set for the KAB-3000 is possible, although very problematic, the bomb itself is designed as a free-fall bomb, this will require design changes,..
2/9

...in particular the installation of a nose cap and also CG things.
Virtually the only platform that could carry such a weapon is Tu-22M3, but it is vulnerable and quite "critical" for Russia. It would require a completely different mission coverage. VKS routinely flies...
3/9

...MIGCAPs and FORCAPs (Su-35 kills heh), but that would have to mean they would start flying Combat air patrol to protect fighter strike aircraft (FastCAP) along with massive SEAD/DEAD missions. UA often fires "turkeyshoots" salvoes of SAMs to break the formations...
4/9

and force the enemy to maneuver into Ukrainian WEZs.
RU surveillance is not bad, they partially have found a way how to identify radar shadows zones and how to stay out of the Ukrainian WEZs via Orlans and other drones and are trying to force UA GBAD assets/components into...
5/9

...activity, where they then immediately send long range fires. This is important because fully loaded Fullbacks are clumsy, need to avoid detection, and launch UMPK-converted bombs from ~19-20,000ft and immediately leave their launch points.
6/9

Especially considering the UKRAF strategy (ambushes and luring into the WEZs/NEZs), having Tu-22M3s in the air/combat zone would be a big risk, just because they have learned to operate Fullbacks doesn't mean they can replicate it with Backfire...
7/9

...,not to mention the future F-16s deliveries and their BVR capabilities (even for firing from ~1000ft).
8/9

So speaking for myself - while a weapon of this class (esp with a PGM set, which btw doesn't exist yet) makes some operational sense (against certain hardened targets), I find its use (especially so on a massive scale) highly unlikely, for the reasons described above.
FIN
9/9

Postscriptum -
The heavy FAB-3000s are not very effective weapons. They can destroy (if used accurately) some hardened targets. But we know from their use in Afghanistan that they were lethal out to 39m and inflicted injuries (by debris, contusions, barotrauma...
10/11

...and the temporary loss of combat capability) out to 158m. That's not that much difference to 1000 and 1500kg bombs.
11/11

*errata (or in other words a typoo)- it should be ~10 000ft of course.