Thread by @TheStudyofWar

NEW: Russian offensive tactics will likely increasingly pressure Ukrainian defenses as long as delays in Western security assistance persist. 🧵(1/7)

2/ RU forces are generally relying on their manpower and materiel superiority to conduct a relatively consistent tempo of assaults against UA positions along the frontline in hopes of wearing down UA defenders and setting conditions for exploiting UA vulnerabilities.

3/ Russian forces are also expanding their use of tactical aviation, drones, and electronic warfare (EW) systems in Ukraine to prepare for and support these assaults while reportedly conducting artillery fire exceeding Ukrainian artillery fire at a ratio of up to ten-to-one.

4/ Overall materiel shortages will likely limit how Ukrainian forces can conduct effective defensive operations while also offering Russian forces flexibility in how to conduct offensive operations.

5/ Ukrainian ammunition shortages are reportedly forcing Ukraine to husband artillery shells, constraining Ukrainian artillery units from conducting effective counterbattery fire and likely preventing Ukrainian forces from relying on artillery fire to repel Russian assaults.

6/ Ukrainian air defense missiles shortages will likely continue to limit Ukraine’s ability to contest air space over occupied Ukraine and threaten the Russian tactical aircraft conducting routine glide bomb strikes.

7/ Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces have repeatedly shown that they are able to prevent these Russian offensive tactics from producing tactical gains, however.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 21, 2024: isw.pub/UkrWar032124