Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 22, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Russia “strikes back” today. This might be a response to successful attacks on Russian oil infrastructure

Zelensky: over 60 "shaheds" and nearly 90 different missiles targeted at power plants, power lines, a hydroelectric dam, residential buildings 1/ Image
This is the largest combined attack on the Ukrainian power system since the beginning of the full-scale invasion: Ukrenergo

100s of thousands of homes are in blackout 2/ Image
Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa and Donetsk are in blackout and being stabilized

There are interruptions of internet and water supply in multiple regions 3/ Image
-Russia hit the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant. There is a major fire but no threat of a dam breach.

Ukrhydroenergo reported two direct missile hits on the plant. One part is in a critical condition and unlikely to be repaired, Ukrhydroenergo director Ihor Syrota 4/


Image
Image
Ukrainian Armed Forces shoot down 92 out of 151 missiles and drones - Air Force.

Successful interceptions:

55/63 Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs.
35/40 X-101/X-555 cruise missiles.
2/2 X-59 guided missiles 5/ Image
Failed interceptions:

0/12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
0/5 X-22 cruise missiles.
0/7 X-47M2 "Kinzhal" aerial ballistic missiles.
0/22 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles 6/ Image
The moment of the attack on the Dnipro hydro power plant 7X

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More from @Mylovanov

May 13
Kasparov: The Ukrainian flag over Sevastopol is the only thing that can knock imperial nonsense out of the average Russian's head.

The imperial idea has outlived many rulers — and may well outlive Putin, unless it's finally buried in the Ukrainian war.

1/
Kasparov: In Russia, victories in war have always been used to strengthen the regime.

WWII was ideological support for communism. Under Putin, it became just a marker — "We can repeat it" was preparation for a new imperialist war.

2/
Kasparov: Tucker Carlson gets paid by Putin and Iranians. Antisemitism unites his far-right and far-left allies.

Zelenskyy's ex-spokeswoman Yulia Mendel fed him pure Kremlin narratives — everything he says carries a KGB stamp.

3/
Read 6 tweets
May 13
Putin said the war in Ukraine may be "coming to an end." In April, Russia lost 45 sq miles — its first net territorial loss since August 2024.

Ukrainian strikes cut Russian oil exports from 5.2M to 3.5M barrels a day. — The Guardian.

1/ Image
In April, Russia lost 45 sq miles of Ukrainian territory — the first net loss since August 2024. Ukraine recaptured Kupiansk in December.

Gains in Zaporizhzhia reversed after Russia lost Starlink access. A slow-motion Russian victory no longer looks certain.

2/
Ukraine claims it killed or wounded more Russian soldiers than Russia recruited for five straight months.

March and April: ~35,000 casualties each month. Russian recruitment: 24,000–30,000 per month. Putin has no appetite for a second public mobilization.

3/
Read 6 tweets
May 13
Keane: Five weeks of talks have produced almost no progress.

Iran still refuses to dismantle its nuclear enterprise, wants indefinite control of Hormuz, and wants the US to finance regime recovery through reparations, unfrozen assets, and sanctions relief. 1/
Keane: A deal like that would favor Iran and set back both the Iranian people and US interests.

Tehran would use the money to rebuild its nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and proxies — the very things this war was launched to stop. 2/
Keane: After all this time trying to negotiate, Washington should recognize that no deal meeting its objectives is available.

The best option is to return to full combat operations, finish what we started, and go full throttle with Israel for one to two weeks. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 12
Putin ran a parade he could not defend.

If the US and Europe keep Kyiv funded and armed, Ukraine can negotiate from strength.

The fastest way to prolong the war is to offer Putin an exit that preserves his system — The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Putin sells inevitability. The parade showed vulnerability.
Ukraine can now hit deep inside Russia. Putin avoided parking real hardware at a known place and time. 2/
After the spectacle, Putin said: "I think that the matter is coming to an end."
He still calls this war a "special operation." The language stays. The capacity shrinks. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 12
Belarus already gave Russia territory for the 2022 assault on Kyiv, launched missiles from its soil, repaired Russian tanks, and treated wounded soldiers.

But Putin appears to want more and is pressuring Lukashenko[Putin’s puppet] to deepen Belarus’s role in the war, Times. 1/ Image
Ukraine now fortifies the 1,080 km Belarus border with mines, trenches, anti-tank barriers, sensors, barbed wire, and anti-drone defenses.

The Rivne crossing, once used by thousands daily, now sits behind minefields and armored patrols. 2/
Zelenskyy: Belarus is building roads toward Ukraine and placing artillery near the border.

Ukraine also reported “unusual activity” on the Belarusian side on May 2. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 12
Trump arrives in Beijing as a weakened president.

The Iran war unresolved, the Strait of Hormuz still closed, tariffs failing.

Xi holds the cards, including a near-monopoly over rare earths and critical minerals. — Gideon Rachman, FT.

1/ Image
When Trump imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing restricted mineral exports.

US factory production lines shut down within weeks. Within months — a trade truce.

2/
China's AI models are now roughly six months behind US rivals. Electric vehicles — China is ahead. Nvidia is lobbying to soften chip export restrictions, arguing it will lose markets to Chinese competitors.

The US lead in technology is narrowing.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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