Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 22, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Russia “strikes back” today. This might be a response to successful attacks on Russian oil infrastructure

Zelensky: over 60 "shaheds" and nearly 90 different missiles targeted at power plants, power lines, a hydroelectric dam, residential buildings 1/ Image
This is the largest combined attack on the Ukrainian power system since the beginning of the full-scale invasion: Ukrenergo

100s of thousands of homes are in blackout 2/ Image
Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa and Donetsk are in blackout and being stabilized

There are interruptions of internet and water supply in multiple regions 3/ Image
-Russia hit the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant. There is a major fire but no threat of a dam breach.

Ukrhydroenergo reported two direct missile hits on the plant. One part is in a critical condition and unlikely to be repaired, Ukrhydroenergo director Ihor Syrota 4/


Image
Image
Ukrainian Armed Forces shoot down 92 out of 151 missiles and drones - Air Force.

Successful interceptions:

55/63 Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs.
35/40 X-101/X-555 cruise missiles.
2/2 X-59 guided missiles 5/ Image
Failed interceptions:

0/12 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
0/5 X-22 cruise missiles.
0/7 X-47M2 "Kinzhal" aerial ballistic missiles.
0/22 S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft guided missiles 6/ Image
The moment of the attack on the Dnipro hydro power plant 7X

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 12
Madyar, Ukraine’s top drone commander: We will isolate Crimea. Striking vehicles on that highway is as easy as shooting partridges in an open field.

Military personnel and defense workers will find it impossible to remain there or use access routes to it.

1/ Image
Madyar: The pain felt in every Ukrainian town should now be felt in the consciousness of Crimea's residents too.

Ukraine has not and will not strike civilians — unlike Russia's accusations, which are false.

2/
Madyar: We took our logistics system from grain trading — carriers, wagons, routes — and adapted it for weapons and ammunition.

Data analysis removes the human factor: a person gets tired, gets biased, makes mistakes.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 12
Russia could be ready to invade NATO by 2029 or earlier — Germany’s army chief Christian Freuding, Politico.

Russia is expanding military infrastructure near Finland, Norway, and the Baltic region. 1/ Image
Europe has raised defense budgets since the full scale invasion of Ukraine. But procurement, stockpiles, and production capacity move slowly.

The gap between spending plans and usable capability is the operational problem. 2/
Uncertainty about US follow through on Article 5 increases the premium on readiness.

If deterrence depends on a decision made in Washington during a crisis, Europe must buy time with forces and logistics already in place. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12
Fiona Hill: Autocracies see the state as strong and society as irrelevant. Individuals have no real role.

The fundamental difference with democracies is that societies still matter and in Ukraine, society has shown extraordinary resilience. 1/
Hill: In Ukraine, strong society is beating strong state.

The state was weak and messy, but society mobilized, networked, flattened hierarchies and worked with the military. That is the opposite of Russia’s vertical, top-down system. 2/
Hill: Putin is afraid of his own society. Ukraine’s innovation comes from mobilized citizens working with the military.

Russia’s system runs vertically through Putin. That gives Moscow control, but it also makes Putin’s choices narrower and darker. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 12
Fiona Hill: Trump does not understand the complexity of the Middle East. Lebanon, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah and Ukraine are connected in different ways.

For him, it is simpler: deal with whoever is on top, negotiate with himself, and ignore advice. 1/
Hill: Trump weakens his own negotiating position every day because he tells Iran what he is thinking in real time.

Tehran has no incentive to make a deal when there is no certainty, no assurance and no clarity about what the outcome would be. 2/
Hill: Iran is not just a theocracy. The religious leadership sits on top of the IRGC, the military and groups that penetrate the economy.

The Iranian people are separate from all this and Washington is missing their perspective completely. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12
Applebaum: What binds Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is not religion or ideology.

China is communist, Russia nationalist, Iran theocratic. What binds them is fear of liberal language: rights, rule of law, separation of powers and independent courts. 1/
Applebaum: Ukraine has changed how the war is fought. The front is now a 20-mile transparent zone where Ukrainian drones can see almost everything.

Every Russian truck, car or soldier entering that zone can be identified and hit. 2/
Applebaum: Russian losses of around 1,000 killed and wounded a day, roughly 30,000 a month, come from Moscow still throwing people into a zone Ukraine can see and strike.

Russia kept advancing by mass, but now that movement has stopped. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 12
Applebaum: Trump is not handling the Iran war strategically. He is not asking what is good for Americans, Iranians or the Middle East.

He is asking: how is this good for me? How do I emerge as the winner? He is chasing applause, not solving the problem. 1/
Applebaum: Trump has never made clear why America is fighting in Iran. Is it because he failed to destroy all nuclear facilities?

Because he wants Netanyahu’s approval? Nobody knows. This is not a problem of democracy, it is a problem of why this war exists. 2/
Applebaum: Iran wants frozen assets, sanctions relief and maybe compensation.

But if Trump offers that, it looks like Obama’s nuclear deal, so he backtracks. Then he returns to “absolute surrender,” regime change or a show that he is the greatest leader. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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