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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Mar 22 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
I've been thinking a lot about the push for a ceasefire two weeks ago. There was an increasing chorus demanding a ceasefire even without a deal for hostages. There was a lot of pressure on Israel. It seems that Hamas and PIJ believed the ceasefire would happen and they likely had some advise that they could go to Shifa hospital and reconstitute themselves for the next phase.
They appear to have believed that when the ceasefire was announced they would now be free for several months to rebuild Hamas and PIJ in northern Gaza. This wasn't a few terrorists just coming to the hospital, this was a huge number. It shows they had plans.
Why did they feel this impunity? They knew that previous ties with int'l orgs would mean that the staff at the hospital would never mention their presence, because they have a long tradition of basically using hospitals as command and control nodes. Int'l groups give them cover.
It appears this was a well thought out plan by Hamas and PIJ, and would have been coordinated with their high command and those officials who live abroad and get advise abroad one when a ceasefire might happen or the strategy to try to obtain one.
They saw Israel re-enter Shati and Zaytun and they assumed Shifa was safe. Why they assumed that requires more investigation, but this is clear.
The inability of pressure to obtain the ceasefire and decision by Hamas or its handlers/patrons not to turn over a list of living hostages and instead try to get a ceasefire without releasing hostages, led to the ceasefire not happening and then the raid on Shifa happened.
It's worth noting that it also happened after the raids on Hamad Towers near Khan Younis, that area is linked to Doha investment. Hamas also felt safe there. Raids there had not happened earlier. Hamas felt it could hide out there.
At Shifa, the IDF said that "During the last 24 hours, we entered the Qatari Building [in the Shifa compound]. This is a building that we also operated in during the previous operation in Shifa. This time, terrorists were hiding there. Shayetet 13 searched the building."
It's worth considering the wider story here. Hamas was being defeated but it felt it could reconstitute in the north and that it could also hide out at Hamad Towers. It thought the ceasefire would happen around March 10. It was wrong. And now it has lost key operatives in two major raids.
Hamas has felt for a long time a protection that it receives from abroad. Connections with foreign governments and also with intl orgs make it feel invincible. It also understands it is being used as a tool against Israel by several countries, and it relies on them for advise.
Hamas may have heard something like: "don't worry we got you covered, we'll pressure the ceasefire and make sure people return to northern Gaza for you to hide behind and rule over, use the hospitals for cover, Israel won't go back into them, we can ramp up the pressure ot stop that."
It's not plausible that Hamas would be so reckless as to move hundreds of operatives to Shifa if it didn't think it had impunity. But Hamas was wrong, not the for the first time in this war it was overconfident and had hubris. This also happened after the Ahli incident, where Hamas thought it could get foreign media to get a ceasefire by lying about the rocket that fell there. But it failed.

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 24
The number of suspects detained in and around Shifa is likely going to approach 1,000 people, of which Israel already says some 500 of them are confirmed Hamas and PIJ members.

This is a huge number of terrorists and alleged terrorists. Several IDF soldiers have been killed in the raid that has gone on for a week.
One would think there would be a lot more coverage of this. For instance tough questions such as how did the staff at Shifa and their international partners not see even ONE of these hundreds of armed male terrorists? They never report or express concern about the presence of these men endangering the hospital and committing war crimes by using the hospital
Where is the needed investigation into this. Why did Hamas think it had a free ticket to return to Shifa in force. How did 500 terrorists so easily return and reconstitute in an area cleared by the IDF in November?
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 18
4 months after the IDF's first major battles around Shifa, the clashes have returned because Hamas returned to (or never left) the areas of the hospital.

IDF: "IDF troops are currently conducting a precise operation in the area of the Shifa hospital. The operation is based on intelligence information indicating the use of the hospital by senior Hamas terrorists to conduct and promote terrorist activity."
"Prior to the operation, IDF troops were instructed on the importance of operating cautiously, as well as on the measures to be taken to avoid harm to the patients, civilians, medical staff, and medical equipment. In addition, Arabic speakers have been brought to the area in order to facilitate dialogue with the patients remaining in the hospital. There is no obligation for the patients and medical staff to evacuate."
"Furthermore, IDF troops will continue the humanitarian efforts in the area, both throughout and following the conclusion of the operation, providing food, water, and medical supplies to the patients and civilians in the hospital's compound. The IDF will continue to act in accordance with international law and against the Hamas terrorist organization - which operates from hospitals and civilian infrastructure in a systematic and cynical way, without the distinction between the civilian population and the organization's terrorists."
Read 5 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 12
This is so symbolic a paragraph of the whole war since October 7. The country that hosts Hamas, which didn't condemn its attack...expects the US, which is its major "non-NATO ally" to pressure Israel to a ceasefire in Gaza...a ceasefire that existed on October 6..a war that could have easily been prevented.Image
The whole situation of October 7 is such a set up.
One country, an ally of the West, hosts the Hamas terror leaders...Hamas then attacks another country that is also a partner of the West...massacring 1,000 people and taking 253 hostages...setting off a massive war.
Now...the West could have demanded their ally which hosts Hamas...prevent this war. They could have also called on October 7 at noon for a ceasefire and demanded their ally get Hamas to stop attacking and release all the hostages immediately.
Read 22 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 7
Notice the current state of the Hamas hostage talks. When they began after the first pause, the aspects of the deal were clear…but then Hamas realized it could pressure Israel using Ramadan, something its advisors/hosts urged it to do while those hosts told western countries that the war must end by Ramadan…so Hamas then increased its obfuscation daily, claiming it can’t provide a list of living hostages and demanding a ceasefire for “confidence building” before any deal…
It’s clear that Hamas got a message from its handlers “don’t do a deal, we will work to pressure Israel about Ramadan and claim that if Israel doesn’t pause fighting then the whole region will be inflamed and then we will put fuel on the fire to inflame it.”
So clearly the goal now by the Hamas handlers/hosts/patrons is to use the Gaza war to inflame the region during Ramadan, they are already pushing this messaging. It’s not that Hamas and Israel can’t do a deal, it’s that the same countries that were behind October 7 and advised Hamas to carry out October 7 are now behind this new campaign
Read 8 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 6
Notice the scam of how the hostage talks are progressing. What should have been asked for at the beginning, months ago, is now a "negotiation" point: Basically Hamas won't even give a list of living hostages unless Israel agrees to pre-conditions. It shows how Hamas believes it is winning and continues to run the whole thing.
If you read about it, the US is now saying it is "legitimate" for Israel to ask for a list of living hostages. This is how things have progressed, where the most basic thing such as a list of the hostages, is now up for debate...meaning that it was unclear if it was even ok for Israel to ask for this.
This is what five months of war have brought...Hamas still deciding and running everything, with its hosts/patron/backer advising it...it's weird but this is what happens.
Read 6 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Mar 5
I'm trying to understand something. Hamas' demands and pre-conditions are to return to October 6 basically. So why did Hamas start this war in the first place, if its demands are to go back to October 6? The answer to that question is that Hamas was advised by its handlers/hosts/patrons and this war was designed to set in motion much larger processes.Image
The rapidity with which Russia, China, Ankara, Doha, Tehran and others moved to circle the wagons after October 7 illustrates that what was really going on was a much larger agenda. The Houthis were then operationalized to carry out attacks too
Then ths anti-Israel lobby also began to operationalize mass protests in the West and hijack them with Hamas slogans such as "flood" and to target Jews. The agenda here is large, well funded and complex. For instance some people on social media began to take up this cause for followers and some of those who had been sidelined due to their support of the Assad regime and Putin...found themselves welcome guests again on shows and invited speakers because they had taken up the pro-Hamas line.
Read 9 tweets

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