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Putin might not have a choice but to blame Ukraine for the terrorist attack in Moscow. He might not be successful, though, because the facts point to Islamic radicals.
This is why:
1. The Russian law enforcement’ve shown suspects 1/
This is why:
1. The Russian law enforcement’ve shown suspects 1/
They claim one of them is from Tajikistan. None of them are Ukrainians or have lived in Ukraine
Ukraine has explicitly denied involvement in the attack and ISIS has claimed responsibility. 2/
Ukraine has explicitly denied involvement in the attack and ISIS has claimed responsibility. 2/
US officials have told media that the claim of responsibility by the Islamic State appears to be credible.
Three days before the attack the U.S. warned Russia about a possibility. Putin dismissed the warning as “blackmail” 3/
Three days before the attack the U.S. warned Russia about a possibility. Putin dismissed the warning as “blackmail” 3/
If it is true that ISIS is behind the attack, Putin must respond in force. Otherwise he looks weak. But he despot have the capability to execute any meaningful action against ISIS. In part because he is stuck in Ukraine. 4/
So, there are two options for him
1. Pull out of Ukraine and focus on ISIS.
2. Ignore ISIS and continue to focus on Ukraine
Either one is bad, but he seems to start building a context to blame Ukraine 5/
1. Pull out of Ukraine and focus on ISIS.
2. Ignore ISIS and continue to focus on Ukraine
Either one is bad, but he seems to start building a context to blame Ukraine 5/
Exhibit 1. Russia state media TASS states: The "Crocus City Hall" terrorist tried to escape in the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian border. reports the Central Office of the FSB. They were planning to cross the border and had contacts on the Ukrainian side 6/
Exhibit 2. Head of Russia's Defense Committee:
"Ukraine and its patrons are the main stakeholders in the terrorist attack on Moscow's concert hall. If the information about Ukraine's involvement in the terrorist attack is confirmed, there should be … ."
Source: Sputnik 7/
"Ukraine and its patrons are the main stakeholders in the terrorist attack on Moscow's concert hall. If the information about Ukraine's involvement in the terrorist attack is confirmed, there should be … ."
Source: Sputnik 7/
https://twitter.com/marionawfal/status/1771473691722866704
But regardless of what Putin decides and who he blames the ISIS problem in Russia won’t go away. And Putin is unable to deal with it. 8/
His security apparatus is trained to prevent and suppress democratic protests by civilians, not terrorist attacks. FSB and Rosgvardiya clearly failed to respond to the attack properly. 9/
It might be the beginning of the end for Putin. Once people and his thugs understand that he is weak, he will lose power. Because his power is based on strength and his ability to deliver security to Russian people. It is a trade of secondary and human rights for security 10/
Once Putin can’t deliver on security, the social contract is broken. Russia is brutal and power changes hands, just not in a democratic way.
Putin’s has made a horrible strategic mistake by invading Ukraine. And now he is committed to doubling down no matter what 11/
Putin’s has made a horrible strategic mistake by invading Ukraine. And now he is committed to doubling down no matter what 11/
This strategy has only one end game - he is out of power and Russia weakened and isolated. 12X
Sure enough, a couple of hours after I wrote this post, top Russian propagandist switch to blaming Ukraine instead of ISIS /
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1771527802749075939
Media says there are specific instructions from the Kremlin to amplify Ukrainian connection /
https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1771542725663297880
@TimothyDSnyder makes several strong and original points
1. Bryansk, where the suspects were detained, is en route to Belarus, not Ukraine
2. Why would the terrorist travel to Ukraine where there are hundreds of checkpoints and tens of thousands of military /
1. Bryansk, where the suspects were detained, is en route to Belarus, not Ukraine
2. Why would the terrorist travel to Ukraine where there are hundreds of checkpoints and tens of thousands of military /
https://twitter.com/timothydsnyder/status/1771528575088222504
@TimothyDSnyder Russians cut off an ear of a suspect during interrogation. This is a reminder to everyone what Russian security services really are.
The video also shows that the suspect is not a Ukrainian /
The video also shows that the suspect is not a Ukrainian /
@TimothyDSnyder Here is a video showing how the Russian security services “interrogate” (read, torture) the suspect and he “looses an ear” (read, they cut it off /
@TimothyDSnyder Rogozin confirms, using racists remarks, that the suspects are Russian citizen /
This pro-Russian account claims the attack is “textbook CIA” and “Ukraine”
He says Putin claims Ukraine tried to assist. No, Putin doesn’t claim that. He says that they were heading to Ukraine border. But offered no evidence. /
He says Putin claims Ukraine tried to assist. No, Putin doesn’t claim that. He says that they were heading to Ukraine border. But offered no evidence. /
https://twitter.com/warclandestine/status/1771566581006385228
Anyone who have been to the war can easily refute the Ukraine border theory.
1. The Ukrainian border is actually controlled by Russia on both sides. So Putin must mean the front or contact line /
1. The Ukrainian border is actually controlled by Russia on both sides. So Putin must mean the front or contact line /
2. The problem is that if you attempt cross in the East, say around Avdiivka or Bakhmut, you die. Even if you accompanied by a unit of special forces. All of you die. /
3. If you try to cross in the north, say, in Sumy or Chernihiv, everything is now mined and impenetrable. Even if one side knows how to get through their own minefields, you need knowledge of both sides. So the only way to cross is for Russians and Ukrainians to be on it at once/
Ian Bremmer @ianbremmer zooms out and points out at 3 catastrophic strategic failures of Putin
1. Ignores the U.S. intelligence on the impeding terrorist attack
2. Looses control over Wagner and gets Prigozhin mutiny
3. Underestimates Ukraine and gets bugged down /
1. Ignores the U.S. intelligence on the impeding terrorist attack
2. Looses control over Wagner and gets Prigozhin mutiny
3. Underestimates Ukraine and gets bugged down /
@ianbremmer Meanwhile, it took me awhile to realize that Russian security cut off a suspect’s ear and forced him to eat it. The “best practices” of law enforcement according to Russia. /
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1771549618154713474
Media report on an interrogation of 19-year-old Muhammadsobir Fayzov, a suspect. He doesn't speak Russian. Fayzov says he was given papers to state in Russia upon arrival in an airport. Strange …. /
https://twitter.com/runews/status/1771581890505396379
Kasparov implies, carefully, that it is not necessarily ISIS but FSB behind the attack /
https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1771326247852720392
Latynina apologizes for implying earlier that Ukrainians might be responsible for the attack /
https://twitter.com/ylatynina/status/1771556852217602207
A pro-Russian account says the West did it. Because they stand to gain the most from escalation and starting WWIII.
Why? Because it is the West who didn’t invade Ukraine, refused to give Ukraine long-range weapons, troops, impose stiff sanctions on Russia, confiscate assets. /
Why? Because it is the West who didn’t invade Ukraine, refused to give Ukraine long-range weapons, troops, impose stiff sanctions on Russia, confiscate assets. /
https://twitter.com/warclandestine/status/1771262802281295964
This one is my favorite. It is radical Muslims who are connected to Muslim fighters on the side of Ukraine. Evidence? No evidence needed, everything is self-evident. /
https://twitter.com/dougamacgregor/status/1771542195260035524
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