Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 23 19 tweets 6 min read Read on X
We are seeing a lot of posts and articles on X about Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign against Russian refineries .

People, including Jake Sullivan over at the Biden Adm. NSC think this is about AFU cutting off Russian oil.

They're wrong. It's about explosives.
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The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are less about POL than reduction of nitrogen,ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for it's artillery and missile production.

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Ukrainian OWA drones are engaged in strategic counter battery fire against the Russian artillery supply chain providing the explosive fillings & propellent for shells, rockets and missiles.

[This also has knock on effects for Russian fertilizer production.]

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Nitrogen, ammonia and methanol are the bell book and candle of chemical feedstocks that Russian refineries supply to it's war machine.

Fixing nitrogen is especially key in making high explosives.

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When the US EPA talks about crude oil refining, it mentions nitrogen thusly:

"Undesirable elements such as sulfur, nitrogen, and oxygen are removed by hydrodesulfurization, hydrotreating, chemical sweetening, and acid gas removal."

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epa.gov/sites/default/…
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When you look up Russian Methanol production on Statistica, it reflects Russia's huge petrochemical refinery infrastructure.


6/statista.com/statistics/126…
The International Energy Agency's "Ammonia Technology Roadmap" says Russia is about 8% of the world Ammonia production capability.


7/iea.org/reports/ammoni…
When you look at modern explosives and artillery shell/rocket propellent on Wikipedia, a lot falls out that shows what Ukraine is up to with it's campaign against Russian refineries.

1. RDX and HMX are made from Formaldehyde that is made from Methanol and ammonia (both of

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1. Con't ...which are oil refinery products) via Hexamethylenetetramine.

2. TNT is made from Toluene, which is a refinery by product of gasoline.

3. Nitroglycerine is a made from Nitrogen, is a biodiesel by product, and is used to make #2 TNT.

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4. Ammonium perchlorate for rocket fuel comes from ammonia, for which see #1.

So, we have a lot of evidence here that Ukraine's anti-refinery campaign is more about removing oil refinery made chemical feedstocks for Russia's artillery supply chain than cutting off oil money

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...or fuel to the Russian Army. Yet, before I posted this, no one seems to have noticed any of that.

And everyone, especially the Jake Sullivan lead Biden Adm. National Security Council is screaming oil.

What's going on?

11/ft.com/content/98f15b…
Two things are happening here.

First, Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) is exactly right as to how Russian Reflexive Control Information Warfare has captured Jake Sullivan's crowd at the Biden Administration National Security Council.

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The second thing is US intelligence on Russia's artillery logistics and associated economic supply chain has sucked rocks for more than 80 years.

The CIA based all of it's Soviet artillery logistics projections on pilfered Warsaw Pact documents...

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...and mirror imaging pallets & forklifts on the Soviets without ever giving any collection priority to the problem or actually looking at chemical feedstocks.

The 80 year feedstock & forklift miss points to the intelligence validation step as a threat to career promotion

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...inside intelligence agencies.

It won't let senior intelligence analysts feed to senior politicians what they want to hear.

Their poor 1980's Iran-Iraq War intelligence product reflected this careertist patron-client defect.

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When the Lockheed Martin WARSIM software development team went to US Army TMs/FMs, the OPFOR World Equipment Guide and AMSAA for Russian log-data, it was INA (Item not Available) because "mirror imaging was good enough."


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What we are seeing with the combination of 80(+) years of intelligence dysfunction & the JD degree spin doctor run NSC is the ultimate American Government expression of the Dunning - Kruger Effect.


17/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E…
We have people running the US Russo-Ukrainian War security policy at the NSC that have absolute confidence in bad intelligence product, while knowing absolutely nothing.

And who are too lazy to do a flipping internet search on Russian refineries chemical feedstocks.

18/18 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Apr 18
Between ~1996 and 2005, most FMTV trucks accepted by DCMA for the US Army had my signature on the truck property forms along with my DSN phone number.

I got three or four calls in Sealy Texas from NCO's in Iraq trying to score ballistic composite glass armor because they stopped these EFP attacks⬇️

1/
DCMA Sealy was getting photos from contractor relatives of bombed FMTV's with sheet metal armor and receiving IED damaged trucks to get rebuilt.

You could tell the blast damage from how the windows were missing and the roofs were bowed at the top.

2/

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When you pulled out the stowage boxes in the cabs there were usually spent 5.56mm or 7.62mm brass casings...

...and occasionally a lot of dried blood.

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Read 7 tweets
Apr 18
Iran's campaign to suppress Israel's ballistic missile defenses is underway.

Air Defense is a combined arms form of warfare. Western militaries have forgotten this since 1989, see⬇️

Every Patriot or Iron Dome radar needs its own dedicated gun based point defense in the age of drones and indirect fire ATGMs.

1/
Locating Patriot/Iron Dome/S-400 class radars is easy peasy lemon squeezy.

You can use commercial synthetic aperture radar satellites and on-line radar interference tracking tools.

2/
Or SAM hunters can use a weather balloons with a set of commercial off the shelf ELINT and thermal imaging sensors - connected via a smartphone - hanging underneath to listen for radars and look for SAM missile launches 24/7.

The world has changed.

(I wonder if the Houthi are doing this balloon surveillance trick to the Western merchantmen?🤔)

3/3

Read 4 tweets
Apr 17
The thing that has deeply bothered me about this RuAF Tsar-shed tank with jammer and the earlier "Pallet Jammer" tank is the complete lack in any public analysis of the mention of Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC).

You can't throw radio-electronic systems together and expect them to work properly.

EMC🧵
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I have spend too many hours on too many days outside an Anechoic RF chamber with EMC test procedures and fiddly oscilloscopes to miss the fact that the drone jamming systems the Russians have deployed on tanks in Ukraine are missing such testing.

Corrugated steel doesn't an effective R/F ground plane make.🙄

2/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroma…Image
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Ukrainian reports claim four FPV drones were stopped by the "Pallet Jammer" tank while the fifth managed to immobilize the tank for later capture and analysis.

There were some claims that this 5th drone was immune from jamming

Color me skeptical.

3/
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…
Read 8 tweets
Apr 16
While the primary historical mission of the Section 22 special interest group in mapping military history archives is over.

The secondary mission to 'spread the historical wealth' on Japanese radar capabilities in WW2 marks a major achievement.

Daniel Schaefer just successfully defended his doctoral thesis.⬇️

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The thesis of newly minted History PhD Daniel Schaefer goes into detail showing how many US Navy carrier planes were lost over Tanapag Harbor at Saipan - due to a Mark 4 Model 3 gun fire-control radar overlooking it -

2/
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...will certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons in terms of the demolishing the "Standard WW2 Japanese Radar Narrative."

Just one Japanese gunfire control radar cost the USN 12 carrier planes confirmed destroyed over Tanapag Harbor between 11 June & 9 July 1944.

Japanese radar was effective in combat and far more so than the US Joint Chiefs of Staff wanted to admit for post-war budget reasons.

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Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
Iran had hard limits in the number of competent launch crews.

The shut down and reopening of Iranian air space was likely Iran discovering how badly their planning was dancing with Miss Rosey Scenario as far as time on target drone & missile launches were concerned.

1/
The additional 24 to 36 hours was the competent IRGC crews checking the work of the noobs and proxies for this strike in progress.

Senator Rubio was briefed on all the additional drone launch sites that radio traffic associated with the competent crews revealed.

2/
The intelligence on this seems to have gone down something like R V Jones book 'Secret Wars" where he described chasing down V-1 testing sites by locating the two best Nazi radar tracking units with SIGINT and ELINT in 1943.

WW2 military history is always relevant.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Apr 7
English Translation:

"Today, the RussiaNoContext channel published a video from the phone of the Russian military, who filmed the first consequences after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP and rejoiced at this act of ecocide against Ukraine.

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We will remind that the terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP was carried out by the Russian occupying forces, the military of the Russian Federation from the 205th Infantry Brigade, around 2:50 a.m. on June 6, 2023.

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As a result of this war crime, a large-scale ecological disaster occurred."

Short form:

No Ukrainian missile was involved in the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP.

Russia did it.

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Read 6 tweets

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