Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 23 19 tweets 6 min read Read on X
We are seeing a lot of posts and articles on X about Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign against Russian refineries .

People, including Jake Sullivan over at the Biden Adm. NSC think this is about AFU cutting off Russian oil.

They're wrong. It's about explosives.
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The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are less about POL than reduction of nitrogen,ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for it's artillery and missile production.

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Ukrainian OWA drones are engaged in strategic counter battery fire against the Russian artillery supply chain providing the explosive fillings & propellent for shells, rockets and missiles.

[This also has knock on effects for Russian fertilizer production.]

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Nitrogen, ammonia and methanol are the bell book and candle of chemical feedstocks that Russian refineries supply to it's war machine.

Fixing nitrogen is especially key in making high explosives.

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When the US EPA talks about crude oil refining, it mentions nitrogen thusly:

"Undesirable elements such as sulfur, nitrogen, and oxygen are removed by hydrodesulfurization, hydrotreating, chemical sweetening, and acid gas removal."

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epa.gov/sites/default/…
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When you look up Russian Methanol production on Statistica, it reflects Russia's huge petrochemical refinery infrastructure.


6/statista.com/statistics/126…
The International Energy Agency's "Ammonia Technology Roadmap" says Russia is about 8% of the world Ammonia production capability.


7/iea.org/reports/ammoni…
When you look at modern explosives and artillery shell/rocket propellent on Wikipedia, a lot falls out that shows what Ukraine is up to with it's campaign against Russian refineries.

1. RDX and HMX are made from Formaldehyde that is made from Methanol and ammonia (both of

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1. Con't ...which are oil refinery products) via Hexamethylenetetramine.

2. TNT is made from Toluene, which is a refinery by product of gasoline.

3. Nitroglycerine is a made from Nitrogen, is a biodiesel by product, and is used to make #2 TNT.

9/
4. Ammonium perchlorate for rocket fuel comes from ammonia, for which see #1.

So, we have a lot of evidence here that Ukraine's anti-refinery campaign is more about removing oil refinery made chemical feedstocks for Russia's artillery supply chain than cutting off oil money

10/
...or fuel to the Russian Army. Yet, before I posted this, no one seems to have noticed any of that.

And everyone, especially the Jake Sullivan lead Biden Adm. National Security Council is screaming oil.

What's going on?

11/ft.com/content/98f15b…
Two things are happening here.

First, Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) is exactly right as to how Russian Reflexive Control Information Warfare has captured Jake Sullivan's crowd at the Biden Administration National Security Council.

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The second thing is US intelligence on Russia's artillery logistics and associated economic supply chain has sucked rocks for more than 80 years.

The CIA based all of it's Soviet artillery logistics projections on pilfered Warsaw Pact documents...

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...and mirror imaging pallets & forklifts on the Soviets without ever giving any collection priority to the problem or actually looking at chemical feedstocks.

The 80 year feedstock & forklift miss points to the intelligence validation step as a threat to career promotion

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...inside intelligence agencies.

It won't let senior intelligence analysts feed to senior politicians what they want to hear.

Their poor 1980's Iran-Iraq War intelligence product reflected this careertist patron-client defect.

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When the Lockheed Martin WARSIM software development team went to US Army TMs/FMs, the OPFOR World Equipment Guide and AMSAA for Russian log-data, it was INA (Item not Available) because "mirror imaging was good enough."


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What we are seeing with the combination of 80(+) years of intelligence dysfunction & the JD degree spin doctor run NSC is the ultimate American Government expression of the Dunning - Kruger Effect.


17/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E…
We have people running the US Russo-Ukrainian War security policy at the NSC that have absolute confidence in bad intelligence product, while knowing absolutely nothing.

And who are too lazy to do a flipping internet search on Russian refineries chemical feedstocks.

18/18 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 27
What is scary for me here is that Crooks used a commercial drone to do final surveillance of site security before his attack.

That, and this letter, indicates to me that USSS at Butler PA lacked both drone detection capability and drone jamming guns, as well as drones.

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It also tracks with the USSS technological backwardness with the complete lack of visible gunfire location sensors at the Butler, PA rally.

Raytheon's McKinney, TX facilities dealing with such kit were local to me in 2010

2/
spacewar.com/reports/Acoust…


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...when I worked for DCMA Dallas.

I'd have thought every USSS Presidential candidate detail would have had them by 2016, let alone 2024.

@dbongino and @susancrabtree should be asking questions about this since no one else wants to go there.

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Read 4 tweets
Jul 25
While this is true about Ex-Soviet arms stockpiles versus new production.⬇️

The thing to watch like a hawk is Russian railway operations.

Russian railway watch🧵
1/
The Russian railways living on Cold War rolling stock (40%) & infrastructure, now ended contracting out to Europe, and now has less advanced Chinese rail contractors, means Russia is on right side of the curve below.

2/
Russian railway car trucks (illustrative photo⬇️) rely upon Western SKF & Amsted cassette bearings that have not been supplied since May 2022 and the Russian co-production facilities were shut down from a lack of proprietary software...

3/

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Read 7 tweets
Jul 23
It has been clear for about 18 months that the Ukrainian military has put in the time to master and digest the materials in the US Strategic Bombing Surveys for lessons on how to take down an industrial economy.

The latest rail ferry strike is just the latest example.
USSBS🧵
1/

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The USSBS made a big fat hairy deal about Japanese railway ferry's moving coal from Hokkaido to Honshu.

Ukraine learned that lesson for Crimea⬇️

2/
The top level summary USSBS reports are filled with political agenda.

The lower level reports feeding into those summaries have a lot of really useful economic data that is still applicable today.

Those reports aren't used anywhere near enough by 21st century analysts.

3/
German aircraft factory shop floor
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Read 11 tweets
Jul 22
This was the "Biden vs Trump Debate moment" for USSS Director Cheatle.

In a situation as "1st shot at Fort Sumter" volatile as this, Cheatle needed to "Come to Jesus," be 100% truthful & offer a full mea culpa admitting to her follies.

She didn't.

1/
Lest the heavens fall🧵
Worse, both she and her superior DHS Secretary Mayorkas were very publicly caught out as lying on the most important facts regarding the lack of protection for former President Trump.

2/
I am still in the "Incompetence leading to culpable negligence" camp on the Trump rally shooting.

Culpable negligence that created an opportunity for a nutjob hearing Ross Perot in his tooth fillings to take a shot.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Jul 22
It appears that @JDVance1 public refusal to debate V.P. Harris on the grounds of:

"We don't know who the Democratic Party Presidential nominee will be,"

... is looking very common sense, which is a very uncommon thing to say about any US Senator.🤨🤔

Jacksonian populism🧵
1/
While I utterly despise @JDVance1 public statements on Ukraine...

...the collapse of the @JoeBiden candidacy reinforces his "Hillbilly Elegy" candidate brand at the expense of Democratic Party's negative campaigning with non-Democrats, and the working class generally.

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And @JDVance1 statements that the USA doesn't make the munitions or have a ship building infrastructure for a multi-front war...

Nor are there any plans to have such a mobilization supporting that logistical capability

...have the virtue of being factually correct.

3/
Read 24 tweets
Jul 21
This is exactly the what the losing side in a war does when undergoing Lanchester Square collapse.⬇️

Just like the way Japanese & German air forces in WW2 collapsed from a lack of skilled replacement pilots and mechanics.

1/
The rate of increase of Russian ground force casualties tracks a collapse of skills from the attrition of competent Russian officers without a Russian training establishment capable of replacing them.

The "Next 100k" of Russian casualties always happens faster.

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It also tracks the collapse of the Russian army motor transport that is preventing both medical system casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) and the resupply of forward positions with food, water and medical supplies.

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Read 5 tweets

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