Thread by @Mylovanov

Ukraine and Russia trade massive missile attacks. This might appear related to Moscow attack, but it is not.

I am in Kyiv and have just woken up (5am) by two loud explosions

Earlier tonight Ukraine successfully hit Sevastopol with multiple missiles 1/

The Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol that hosts the Russian Black Sea fleet has been confirmed by Russian state media. There are dead and injured.

Ukrainian media report that UK made storm shadows hit a communication center of the Russia fleet 2/

This night Russia launched multiple missiles across the entire Ukraine. It is too early for videos of the damage, but explosions and interceptions are reported across the country. The attack continues

Russia used 14 strategic bombers at once, 2 warships, and drones 3/

At the moment, Russian missiles are in the air in these regions: Lviv, Chernihiv, Cheraksy, Kyiv, Khmelnytsky, Vinnytsya, Volyn,Ternopil, Rivne 4/

A moment ago, Ukrainian media reported another successful attack on Crimea. This time not in Sevastopol, but Hvardiyske 5/

This is why these exchanges are unlikely to be related to the Moscow terror attack

1. It takes considerable time to prepare attacks at this scale.

For example, Russian missiles are code to maneuver through areas without Ukrainian air defense or evade it when impossible 6/

They are also coordinated to hit cities at once. The missiles change directions multiple times, travel in very convoluted patterns, and stay in the air for a long time - sometimes over an hour.

Designing, coordinating, and coding these missions is hard and takes time 7/

The same is true for Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. Ukrainian attacks are much more focused and much smaller in scale and numbers of missiles.

To be successful Ukraine compensates by better preparation, intelligence, mission design and execution 8/

2. These exchanges have been ongoing and had escalated before the terror attack in Moscow

Ukraine and Kyiv in particular have been bombed intensively for the last several days, starting two days before the attack in Moscow 9/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1770706257298501696

Russian attacks before the Moscow terror have been massive and plunged Ukraine, especially the East into a blackout. They also hit the largest (remaining) hydro dam in Ukraine. The blackout is ongoing 10/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1771116553926287774

In turn, Ukraine has been busy taking apart Russian oil refineries.

These attacks have been successful to the extent that there are reports the U.S. had asked Ukraine to stop these attacks afraid of escalation by Russia. 11/ politico.eu/article/report…

Ukraine denies there had been a request. But even if it were, Ukraine has defied it and continued to target Russian oil infrastructure. The latest attack was yesterday 12/ independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…

Indirectly, this is evidence that Ukraine is not behind the terror attack in Moscow.

Ukraine carries out operations in Russia, including Moscow.
13/

Media report two types of operations:

1. Targeted assassinations of military, defectors, Russian installed politicians in occupation

2. Targeted attacks on military and defense production infrastructure

Ukraine does not and have never carried out terrorist attacks 14/

But as I wrote yesterday, Putin might not have a choice but to blame Ukraine for the terrorist attack in Moscow 15/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1771492547606577262

Otherwise he will appear weak. Russians might not care about how many people die in Ukraine but they do care about what happens in Moscow.

If the attack is not connected to Ukraine, then Putin’s propaganda against Ukraine and justification for the invasion become nil 16/

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1771626822947516794

So, the Russian info operations have been busy arguing Ukraine connection

One argument is that the terrorist were traveling to Ukraine. Why on earth would you do that? If anything, you are guaranteed to be captured or killed by Russian troops before you get to the contact line/

https://twitter.com/runews/status/1771423322963620216

Also, the city in which the suspects were arrested is closer (and faster) to Belarus than Ukraine. Plus the border control is a bit easier (sarcasm) in Belarus than at the front line between Russia and Ukraine 18/

But as I wrote yesterday, it might be difficult to ignore the evidence. For example, the fact that ISIS has access to video from the terrorist cameras, while Russian security doesn’t (yet) 20/

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1771665904868237690

However, many people, even in the West, don’t need evidence. They are certain that it looks “increasingly likely” Ukraine is behind the attack on Moscow. 21/

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1771638352137101414

There is also disinformation and amplification of disinformation.

An account post “evidence” that one of the suspects had served in Ukrainian military and is a Ukrainian citizen

No matter that all other suspects are Russian citizens and Tajiks - that doesn’t matter 22/

The report gets amplified only to be refuted later. The name of the suspect may be different, he isn’t Ukrainian, and hasn’t served in Ukraine armed forces.

But the original post pushing this disinformation gets 10s of m views, while it’s refutation - 2.7 m views

23/

https://twitter.com/krassenstein/status/1771630384310038594

Russian politicians now claim that attacks and bombings of Ukraine is a retaliation for the Moscow terror attack 24/

https://twitter.com/rogozin/status/1771426976340869303

As the Russian attack on Ukraine continues, there are reports that three Russian missiles crossed into Poland and Polish Air Force is on alert 24/

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1771740437138518425