“Conflict is not imminent or inevitable—but our potential adversaries have become increasingly aggressive & emboldened.”
“The PRC’s unprecedented military build-up & campaign of coercive actions continue to destabilize the region & they challenge the values & institutions that support a free & open Indo-Pacific.”
“My view is that China would absolutely like to assimilate Taiwan without a war.
And that is evident by their increasingly aggressive, coercive campaign against Taiwan, increasingly deploying ships in the vicinity, crossing the center line with their air assets, entering their ADIZ with their aircraft…
They have not over the past number of years denounced the use of force. They continue to keep it on the table.”
“The PRC will be a competitor with the U.S. today, tomorrow, & in the future. They’re not going away.
The strategy articulates that all of the actions & the approaches in the 4 pillars that we've set up—which are posture, operations, capabilities, & allies & partners—are designed to give us a sustained, persistent advantage…
Continuing to modernize & deliver those capabilities & things we need in the long-term will maintain that advantage. All of it. The entire strategic approach by INDOPACOM is designed to prevent this conflict.”
“With the capabilities that the PRC are producing, delivering, & continue to support, their numbers & capability & capacity are increasing.
That's a conscious decision to support a 7.2% defense increase despite an economy that is on the decline.
We're at a point where the capability being produced does have a quality all of its own as it applies with capacity.
It is the world's largest Navy right now. It is soon to be the world's largest Air Force as they continue to produce.”
Admiral Aquilino on decision superiority & closing the kill chain:
On Ukraine-Russia:
“The PRC is certainly watching that conflict & they're gaining a lot of lessons learned on what gets done right, what gets done wrong.
The combination of the two supporting each other, whether it be in the information space or in the UN is concerning, right?
You have a lineup behind the war criminal that you've identified by other nations, which legitimizes the actions. And we have to ensure that we don't support that assertion.”
“The U.S. asymmetric advantage of undersea capabilities are second to none. And that is a domain that we need to maintain superiority. We need to maintain capacity & investments in the undersea sets of capabilities because they allow us to be dominant.”
Q: Last year I asked you about Chinese shipbuilding investment compared to our own. & you made clear then that the Chinese are building ships at a pace that far exceed ours. Has that trend changed at all since this time last year?
A: No
When asked about using million dollar missiles to shoot down Houthi drones:
“They are fighting with what they got & we should never ask them to stop or conserve.
What we do have to do is move forward on our directed energy path to be able to get on the right side of this cost curve.
So your point is completely valid, but bottom line mission success there: I would never ask them to restrict what they need to do.
But we do need to make sure that the capabilities that I've identified are delivered at a relevant time.”
Drones delivered cheaply & at scale is an asymmetric advantage:
“The ability to deliver swarming-type unmanned attritable capabilities to deliver a problem set for the adversary they won’t be prepared for & would have a really difficult time countering.
Whether it’s undersea, on the sea, or above the sea—all of those capabilities are needed.”
The Admiral’s top priority is “defense of the homeland, which is the Guam Defense System.”
“We have to be able to get this in a place where we do have sustained, consistent, flexible, & redundant power, water, & all the capabilities needed to generate the force.”
“What we all have to understand…
We haven’t faced a threat like this since WW2. The largest military. The world’s largest navy. Soon to be the world’s largest air force.
The magnitude, scope, & scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.”
• • •
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Many Middle East developments over the past week as the U.S. military buildup continues:
- Additional strike assets en route (F-35As in Rota, EA-18Gs in CENTCOM)
- NSA Bahrain cleared out: all forward-deployed ships (LCS, USCG) got underway
- Deploying THAAD battery + Patriots
- Movement at Diego Garcia
- RC-135 Rivet Joint operating out of KSA
- ABECSG on station in the northern Arabian Sea
- Iran cancels naval drills following CENTCOM warning
More info and sources (recommend following) below.
Air assets: @DEFENCEGEEK, @ARMCHAIRADML, @THEINTELFROG, @VCDGF555, @STEFFANWATKINS
With help from @SCHIZOINTEL, @LATAMMILMVMTS, @MT_ANDERSON, @EZEGSM3, @MERCOGLIANOS,@SA_DEFENSA, @__CJOHNSTON__, @BYCHRISGORDON
Base map: @RHODESMAPS
Created by @iejmedia. Subscribe for access to database and interactive fleet tracker.
Previous EUCOM-CENTCOM update for reference:
Last week, USAF tankers dragged 6x VTANG F-35As and 6x USN EA-18Gs across the Atlantic to bases in Europe. The 158 Fighter Wing and Electronic Attack Squadron (VAQ) 132 were both forward deployed to Puerto Rico supporting SOUTHCOM ops.
The U.S. military is rapidly expanding its footprint in the Middle East, moving additional fighter aircraft, ships, air defense, and support assets into the region.
- The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is in the Indian Ocean and will soon enter the U.S. 5th Fleet/Central Command AOR
- Three F-15E Strike Eagle squadrons now forward deployed
- Increased KC-135 and C-17 flights supporting the buildup
- Patriot and THAAD air defense systems reportedly en route
Snapshot ahead of Abe’s arrival in theater:
Tap and hold to load/save in 4K. Track the entire Navy fleet at @iejmedia.
If you’re interested in this stuff, I suggest following @TheIntelFrog, @Schizointel, @LATAMMILMVMTS, @MT_Anderson, @mercoglianos, @vcdgf555, @SA_Defensa, @__CJohnston__, @DefenceGeek, @ByChrisGordon, @sentdefender, @ezegsm3, @EndGameWW3, @steffanwatkins
“A dozen F-15Es assigned to the 494th Fighter Squadron at RAF Lakenheath, U.K., departed on Jan. 18, headed towards the Middle East, supported by KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft, according to flight tracking data.
U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the region, confirmed the squadron’s presence in the Middle East with an official photo posted on social media Jan. 20. C-17 Globemaster III cargo aircraft have also flown from Britain to the Middle East on missions that appear to be supporting the fighter squadron’s deployment.
…
With the addition of another F-15E squadron, the U.S. now has three Strike Eagle squadrons known to be deployed to the region, according to open-source flight tracking data and recent official U.S. military imagery.
The F-15E squadrons that were already deployed to the Middle East are from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, N.C., and Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons and A-10 Thunderbolt II attack planes are also known to be deployed to the region.”
@ByChrisGordon @ASForcesMag
During the darkest hours of 2 and 3 January, the U.S. conducted operation “Absolute Resolve,” a discreet, precise mission to apprehend Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.
The special operations extraction force, escorted by a U.S. Navy, Marine, and Air Force protection package, arrived in downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise, successfully took Maduro into custody, and exfiltrated safely.
A comprehensive review of everything we know to date:
w/ @SA_Defensa, @LatAmMilMVMTs, @__CJohnston__
At 22:46 EST on 2 January 2026, after "patiently waiting for the right triggers to be met... the weather broke just enough" and POTUS ordered the U.S. military to move forward with operation “Absolute Resolve.”
“Over the course of the night, aircraft began launching from 20 different bases, on land and sea, across the Western Hemisphere. In total, more than 150 aircraft, bombers, fighters, intel, recon, and rotary wing aircraft were in the air.”
The 150+ aircraft worked in “close coordination, all coming together... to layer effects for a single purpose: to get an interdiction force into downtown Caracas while maintaining the element of tactical surprise.”
As the operation began, the helicopters with the extraction force, which included law enforcement officers, took off and began their flight into Venezuela at 100 feet above the water. “As they approached Venezuelan shores, the U.S. began layering different effects provided by SPACECOM, CYBERCOM, and other members of the interagency to create a pathway.”
Overhead, the extraction forces were protected by aircraft from the U.S. Marines, U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, and the Air National Guard. The protection package included F-22s, F-35As, F-35Bs, F/A-18E/Fs, EA-18Gs, E-2Ds, B-1B bombers, and other support aircraft, as well as numerous remotely piloted drones.
As the package approached Caracas, the joint air component “began dismantling and disabling the air defense systems, employing weapons to ensure the safe passage of the helicopters into the target area.”
Delta Force arrived at Maduro’s compound at 01:01 AM EST (02:01 AM local time) on 3 January and descended into the compound. “While apprehending the indicted persons on arrival into the target area, the helicopters came under fire and they replied with overwhelming force in self-defense.”
Maduro and his wife surrendered and were taken into custody by the Department of Justice, assisted by the U.S. military, with no loss of U.S. life. After securing Maduro, the force began to prepare for departure “Helicopters were called in to exfiltrate the extraction force while fighter aircraft and remotely piloted aircraft provided overhead coverage and suppressive fire. There were multiple self-defense engagements. As the force began to withdraw out of Venezuela, the force successfully exfiltrated and returned to their afloat launch bases, and the force was over the water.”
By 03:29 AM EST, the 160 SOAR MH-47G Chinook transporting the VIP touched down on amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) in the Caribbean Sea. LHD 7, with its air combat element (ACE) practicing agile combat employment (ACE) in Puerto Rico, has served as a mobile hub for special operations forces in USSOUTHCOM.
One helo was hit during the engagement, but remained operational, and all aircraft made it home safely. Source: Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Over the past 48 hours, China surrounded Taiwan and executed large-scale live-fire military exercises featuring simulated decapitation strikes and the seizure of key ports.
“It is a noose-style blockade. The operational scope is no longer limited to symbolic, isolated shows of force, but has evolved into a coordinated and interconnected blockade network, practicing the tactics to choke off the island’s vital supply lines,” the official PLA press account stated bluntly.
With a potential Day 3 on the horizon, here’s everything you might have missed:
For easier viewing, press and hold to load in 4K. Special thanks to @SinoTalk and @songs349.
>>On the morning of 29 December, PLA Eastern Theater Command launched joint military exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” and deployed air and naval forces “to approach Taiwan Island in close proximity from different directions”
The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force participated. The stated objectives at the outset included:
- Blockade on key ports and areas
- Seizure of comprehensive superiority
- Joint sea-air combat readiness patrols
- All-dimensional deterrence outside the first island chain (new language)
The PRC designated seven exercise zones in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, southwest, southeast, and east of Taiwan. From 09:00 to 11:00, the PLA established an 8th training area to the east of Taiwan (per @MoNDefense).
As of yesterday, Reuters reports that 90+ Chinese ships are operating in the region - down from 100+ earlier this week - surpassing China's "mass naval deployment in December last year" in the "largest maritime show of force to date."
A high-level visual (notes + sources below):
“The Chinese ships have massed in waters stretching from the southern part of the Yellow Sea through the East China Sea and down into the contested South China Sea, as well as into the Pacific, according to four security officials in the region.
Their accounts were corroborated by intelligence reports from a country in the region, which detailed the deployment. Reuters reviewed the reports on condition it did not name the country.
As of Thursday morning, there are more than 90 Chinese ships operating in the region, coming down from more than 100 at one point earlier this week, the documents showed.
The operations exceed China's mass naval deployment in December last year that prompted Taiwan to raise its alert level, the sources said.”
The Hainan amphibious task group was last spotted ~500nm north of Palau. Australia is closely tracking the ATG but it’s unclear how far south the group will transit. @SinoTalk unpacks why the PLA might conduct a second circumnavigation op and what it would look like: