Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 24 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
“The security environment is the most dangerous I’ve seen in 40 years in uniform,” Adm. Aquilino warned last week.

“We haven’t faced a threat like this since WW2.”

A few more clips, quotes, & mic-dropping moments from his final public appearance as Commander, U.S. INDOPACOM 👇
The Philippines is a “really critical hot spot right now that could end up in a bad place… I’m concerned where it could go.”
“Conflict is not imminent or inevitable—but our potential adversaries have become increasingly aggressive & emboldened.”
“The PRC’s unprecedented military build-up & campaign of coercive actions continue to destabilize the region & they challenge the values & institutions that support a free & open Indo-Pacific.”
“My view is that China would absolutely like to assimilate Taiwan without a war.

And that is evident by their increasingly aggressive, coercive campaign against Taiwan, increasingly deploying ships in the vicinity, crossing the center line with their air assets, entering their ADIZ with their aircraft…

They have not over the past number of years denounced the use of force. They continue to keep it on the table.”
“The PRC will be a competitor with the U.S. today, tomorrow, & in the future. They’re not going away.

The strategy articulates that all of the actions & the approaches in the 4 pillars that we've set up—which are posture, operations, capabilities, & allies & partners—are designed to give us a sustained, persistent advantage…

Continuing to modernize & deliver those capabilities & things we need in the long-term will maintain that advantage. All of it. The entire strategic approach by INDOPACOM is designed to prevent this conflict.”
“With the capabilities that the PRC are producing, delivering, & continue to support, their numbers & capability & capacity are increasing.

That's a conscious decision to support a 7.2% defense increase despite an economy that is on the decline.

We're at a point where the capability being produced does have a quality all of its own as it applies with capacity.

It is the world's largest Navy right now. It is soon to be the world's largest Air Force as they continue to produce.”
Admiral Aquilino on decision superiority & closing the kill chain:
On Ukraine-Russia:

“The PRC is certainly watching that conflict & they're gaining a lot of lessons learned on what gets done right, what gets done wrong.

The combination of the two supporting each other, whether it be in the information space or in the UN is concerning, right?

You have a lineup behind the war criminal that you've identified by other nations, which legitimizes the actions. And we have to ensure that we don't support that assertion.”
“The U.S. asymmetric advantage of undersea capabilities are second to none. And that is a domain that we need to maintain superiority. We need to maintain capacity & investments in the undersea sets of capabilities because they allow us to be dominant.”
Q: Last year I asked you about Chinese shipbuilding investment compared to our own. & you made clear then that the Chinese are building ships at a pace that far exceed ours. Has that trend changed at all since this time last year?

A: No
When asked about using million dollar missiles to shoot down Houthi drones:

“They are fighting with what they got & we should never ask them to stop or conserve.

What we do have to do is move forward on our directed energy path to be able to get on the right side of this cost curve.

So your point is completely valid, but bottom line mission success there: I would never ask them to restrict what they need to do.

But we do need to make sure that the capabilities that I've identified are delivered at a relevant time.”
Drones delivered cheaply & at scale is an asymmetric advantage:

“The ability to deliver swarming-type unmanned attritable capabilities to deliver a problem set for the adversary they won’t be prepared for & would have a really difficult time countering.

Whether it’s undersea, on the sea, or above the sea—all of those capabilities are needed.”
The Admiral’s top priority is “defense of the homeland, which is the Guam Defense System.”

“We have to be able to get this in a place where we do have sustained, consistent, flexible, & redundant power, water, & all the capabilities needed to generate the force.”
“What we all have to understand…

We haven’t faced a threat like this since WW2. The largest military. The world’s largest navy. Soon to be the world’s largest air force.

The magnitude, scope, & scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.”

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More from @ianellisjones

Dec 9
Admiral Paparo: “I remain confident that we’d prevail in a conflict with the PRC over Taiwan...

And, in fact, the PRC also doubts their own ability to prevail in such a conflict...

That doesn’t negate that if they decided there would have to be a war of necessity, they’re going at tremendous risk to themselves...

Our concern is that the margin — expressed in risk of succeeding, lost lives, lost capability, lost money, and lost time — is eroding.”
Adm. Paparo, Commander of @INDOPACOM, speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, says the U.S. needs to double down on:
Response when asked about stationing U.S. troops on Taiwan:

“U.S. troops on Taiwan has the tremendous risk of tripping China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law...

However, defensive services is an element of the Taiwan Relations Act...

So, I don’t discuss U.S. presence on Taiwan...”
Read 5 tweets
Dec 2
A lot going on in the Indo-Pacific — a few things you may have missed last week 🧵

- Chinese balloons are back around Taiwan
- China + Russia conduct 9th joint strategic aerial patrol
- Largest swarm of Chinese ships ever near Philippines’ Thitu island
- Taiwan intercepts China Coast Guard ships in Kinmen’s restricted waters
- Three PRC research vessels enter the Philippines’ EEZ
- CCG carries out intrusive patrols in Malaysia’s EEZ
- Taiwan’s President lands in Hawaii, irking Beijing
- U.S. approves $320 million arms sale to Taiwan

China could launch military drills, or exercise “Joint Sword C,” in response. More info + sources below.Image
Chinese balloons are back—

After a 7+ month hiatus, Taiwan detected at least 6 Chinese balloons entering its air defense ID zone (ADIZ) over the last week.

From December 2023 to April 2024, China sent an unprecedented 102 balloons over and around the island. Image
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China debuts H-6N bomber & conducts strategic aerial patrol with Russia in the Sea of Japan, East China Sea, and WESTPAC—

For the first time, China employed the H-6N strategic bomber in the patrol. The H-6N is “emblematic of the strategic transformation of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force” and capable of long-range operations, aerial refueling, and carrying nuclear weapons.

It is the 9th patrol organized by the two militaries since 2019 and the 2nd this year.Image
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Read 9 tweets
Nov 12
New details from DOD — U.S. Navy repels multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks:

- Destroyers USS Stockdale (DDG 106) & USS Spruance (DDG 111), part of the Lincoln CSG, were attacked while transiting the BAM on 11 Nov
- Included at least 8x one-way attack drones, 5x anti-ship ballistic missiles, & 3x anti-ship cruise missiles
- Despite reports, aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) (recently in the Gulf of Aden) was not targeted
- Successfully engaged & defeated with no injuries or damage

“CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense & will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.” —Pentagon Press Sec
“On November 11th, U.S. Central Command forces successfully repelled multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks during a transit of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. During the transit, the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Stockdale and USS Spruance were attacked by at least eight one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems, five anti-ship ballistic missiles, and three anti-ship cruise missiles, which were successfully engaged and defeated.

The vessels were not damaged. No personnel were hurt. Again, CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense, and as I highlighted earlier, will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.”
“This is the second time the two independently-deployed destroyers have come under Houthi fire. The Houthis also launched an attack in late September against the two destroyers, as well as USS Indianapolis (LCS-17), USNI News previously reported.”
Read 6 tweets
Nov 11
Updated chart visualizing Chinese PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air defense ID zone (ADIZ) this year.

The record-breaking surge began in May following President Lai’s inauguration. By August, ADIZ incursions had already surpassed 2023 totals — with the tally now 1,000+ higher. Image
“This is not a slide that comes out of @PACAF, but I do like it and I use it for this purpose.

You know we see this bullying taking place in the air domain: two lines on the chart. The one that’s in orange shows the air defense identification zone or ADIZ — incursions that the PLA has conducted against Taiwan in 2023. And while that slope is fairly constant, it just shows a persistent presence and pressure being put on the Taiwans. The blue line, or the green, depending on how this shows up for you, is 2024. And you notice in May, when President Lai was inaugurated, the slope on that line took about a 3x rise.

And again, just indications of how the bullying and threatening behaviors continue to be exhibited.” —Gen. Kevin Schneider
Read 6 tweets
Oct 24
The U.S. Marine Corps’ XQ-58A Valkyrie, a highly autonomous, long-range, low-cost tactical unmanned platform, completed its 4th test flight & “effectively demonstrated its capabilities as a forward deployed sensing platform — providing critical threat targeting data to USMC 5th-generation aircraft to rapidly close advanced kill chains.”Image
Multi-domain test event “Emerald Flag” provides opportunity for XQ-58A to demonstrate tactical data link integration (Source: USMC) Image
“A test Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie unmanned combat aerial vehicle deployed last week in a first-ever joint force data link integration test during Emerald Flag 2024 last week.

The Marine Corps’ “Loyal Wingman” drone provides targeting data to F-35Bs and other aircraft.” @Aaron_MatthewIL
Read 5 tweets
Oct 15
🚨 JOINT SWORD 2024B BRIEF + MAP

- China launched a simulated blockade around Taiwan
- Deployed a fleet of 34 PLAN + CCG ships
- Carrier group practiced securing a key choke point
- 153 PLA aircraft detected, with 111 entering Taiwan’s ADIZ—the most ever recorded in a single day Image
On 14 October, China’s PLA Eastern Theater Command conducted exercise “Joint Sword 2024B,” launching a major 13-hour joint military drill & encircling Taiwan from the north, south, east, & west

The PLA Army, Navy, Air Force, & Rocket Force practiced “sea-air combat readiness patrols, a blockade on key ports & areas, assault on maritime & ground targets, & joint seizure of comprehensive superiority”
Unprecedented air incursion: 153 PLA aircraft detected operating nearby, with 111 entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) — the most ever recorded in a single day
Read 13 tweets

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