Ian Ellis Profile picture
Mar 24 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
“The security environment is the most dangerous I’ve seen in 40 years in uniform,” Adm. Aquilino warned last week.

“We haven’t faced a threat like this since WW2.”

A few more clips, quotes, & mic-dropping moments from his final public appearance as Commander, U.S. INDOPACOM 👇
The Philippines is a “really critical hot spot right now that could end up in a bad place… I’m concerned where it could go.”
“Conflict is not imminent or inevitable—but our potential adversaries have become increasingly aggressive & emboldened.”
“The PRC’s unprecedented military build-up & campaign of coercive actions continue to destabilize the region & they challenge the values & institutions that support a free & open Indo-Pacific.”
“My view is that China would absolutely like to assimilate Taiwan without a war.

And that is evident by their increasingly aggressive, coercive campaign against Taiwan, increasingly deploying ships in the vicinity, crossing the center line with their air assets, entering their ADIZ with their aircraft…

They have not over the past number of years denounced the use of force. They continue to keep it on the table.”
“The PRC will be a competitor with the U.S. today, tomorrow, & in the future. They’re not going away.

The strategy articulates that all of the actions & the approaches in the 4 pillars that we've set up—which are posture, operations, capabilities, & allies & partners—are designed to give us a sustained, persistent advantage…

Continuing to modernize & deliver those capabilities & things we need in the long-term will maintain that advantage. All of it. The entire strategic approach by INDOPACOM is designed to prevent this conflict.”
“With the capabilities that the PRC are producing, delivering, & continue to support, their numbers & capability & capacity are increasing.

That's a conscious decision to support a 7.2% defense increase despite an economy that is on the decline.

We're at a point where the capability being produced does have a quality all of its own as it applies with capacity.

It is the world's largest Navy right now. It is soon to be the world's largest Air Force as they continue to produce.”
Admiral Aquilino on decision superiority & closing the kill chain:
On Ukraine-Russia:

“The PRC is certainly watching that conflict & they're gaining a lot of lessons learned on what gets done right, what gets done wrong.

The combination of the two supporting each other, whether it be in the information space or in the UN is concerning, right?

You have a lineup behind the war criminal that you've identified by other nations, which legitimizes the actions. And we have to ensure that we don't support that assertion.”
“The U.S. asymmetric advantage of undersea capabilities are second to none. And that is a domain that we need to maintain superiority. We need to maintain capacity & investments in the undersea sets of capabilities because they allow us to be dominant.”
Q: Last year I asked you about Chinese shipbuilding investment compared to our own. & you made clear then that the Chinese are building ships at a pace that far exceed ours. Has that trend changed at all since this time last year?

A: No
When asked about using million dollar missiles to shoot down Houthi drones:

“They are fighting with what they got & we should never ask them to stop or conserve.

What we do have to do is move forward on our directed energy path to be able to get on the right side of this cost curve.

So your point is completely valid, but bottom line mission success there: I would never ask them to restrict what they need to do.

But we do need to make sure that the capabilities that I've identified are delivered at a relevant time.”
Drones delivered cheaply & at scale is an asymmetric advantage:

“The ability to deliver swarming-type unmanned attritable capabilities to deliver a problem set for the adversary they won’t be prepared for & would have a really difficult time countering.

Whether it’s undersea, on the sea, or above the sea—all of those capabilities are needed.”
The Admiral’s top priority is “defense of the homeland, which is the Guam Defense System.”

“We have to be able to get this in a place where we do have sustained, consistent, flexible, & redundant power, water, & all the capabilities needed to generate the force.”
“What we all have to understand…

We haven’t faced a threat like this since WW2. The largest military. The world’s largest navy. Soon to be the world’s largest air force.

The magnitude, scope, & scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.”

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More from @ianellisjones

Mar 25
Breaking | Chinese Ministry of State Security hackers indicted for targeting U.S. companies & critics during 14-year(!) espionage campaign

“PRC state-sponsored malicious cyber actors continue to be one of the greatest & most persistent threats to U.S. national security.” Image
Indictment unsealed ~30 mins ago:

“Charging 7 nationals of the PRC with conspiracy to commit computer intrusions & conspiracy to commit wire fraud for their involvement in a PRC-based hacking group that spent approximately 14 years targeting U.S. & foreign critics, businesses & political officials in furtherance of the PRC’s economic espionage & foreign intelligence objectives.”
“The Justice Department will not tolerate efforts by the Chinese government to intimidate Americans who serve the public, silence the dissidents who are protected by American laws, or steal from American businesses,” said AG Garland.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 9
🚨Houthis conduct largest & most complex attack to date—sending 28 one-way attack drones toward U.S. & coalition ships.

All 28 drones were shot down with no injuries or damage. Thread with live updates: Image
CENTCOM initially reported a 15 drone swarm, but just revised the number up to 28.
Today’s attack is the largest since 9 January.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 1
🚨A LOT going down in the Taiwan Strait—all of this happened in February (a thread) Image
The Taiwan Strait is one of several flashpoints worth closely watching in the Indo-Pacific.
The situation around Kinmen is escalating, says @GordianKnotRay, as China launches a “gray-zone assault.”

“China has seized on this as an opportunity to increase patrols—so this shows us how China uses pretext as a method for advancing its strategic objectives.”
Read 20 tweets
Feb 26
Two U.S. Navy carrier strike groups are deployed & underway: 1 in the Middle East & 1 in the Indo-Pacific.

8 are currently active, 2 will be online mid-2024, & 1 is in long-term maintenance.

I don't see a scenario with half the fleet in the Pacific, as recent headlines suggest. Image
USS Ronald Reagan is in port in Yokosuka, Japan, & set to be replaced this year by USS George Washington.

Theodore Roosevelt CSG is operating in the Philippine Sea, will be replaced by USS Abraham Lincoln.

America amphibious ready group spotted underway near Sagami Bay, Japan. Image
The Dwight D. Eisenhower (Ike) carrier strike group is operating in the Red Sea, leading strike campaigns against the Houthi.

Big deck Bataan + amphibious ready group, with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked, is underway in the eastern Mediterranean.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 24
Curious teaser released by China's military threatening Taiwan with military force if it doesn't bend the knee—& featuring the U.S. as a “fiery demon.”

Let's break it down & see what it means👇
Video is titled “Return Home,” depicting China with an adult hand & Taiwan as a lost child, reaching out & grasping for help.

“Little hands clutching big ones, together they step out of a fiery pit. Lanterns lit to chase away demons, for only in returning home does victory lie.” Image
The Statue of Liberty arises holding a torch burning Taiwan—portraying the U.S. as a fiery demon who must be chased away.

The message is a threat of force: if you change the status quo, support Taiwan's independence, or intervene militarily... We will resort to combat arms. Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19
"We are in the midst of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order."

Admiral Paparo, Commander of U.S. INDOPACOM, says China is the "only state with both the intent & the power to do so."

Eye-opening speech—I cut the 60 mins down to 5 👇
Paparo says the world is increasingly descending into chaos & disorder as China & Russia represent a pacing challenge to our security, freedom, & well-being.

"From Europe to the Middle East to the Pacific, we're seeing significant shifts in state behaviors & they are not random."
Beware a land power that turns to the sea...

"Today, in the Indo-Pacific, the PRC has turned to the sea. In its threats to Taiwan across the strait, in the South China Sea, & the East China Sea, it makes expansive & unlawful claims to waters & to features."
Read 11 tweets

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