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Mar 28, 2024 27 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Paleo artists often "shrink wrap" fossilized animal depictions

The T-Rex, Utahraptor, Triceratops—popular depictions of each of these animals shows skin so close to bone that it might be unrealistic

So let's shrink-wrap existing animals🧵

Can you guess what this is? Image
Preemptive note: All of this artwork is from C.M. Koseman, whose book (which is way more extensive than this thread) and some other material is linked at the end of the thread.

The last animal was a rhinoceros—the thing with the cooling heat sail!

Any idea what this animal is? Image
That last one might seem to be a dog, but it's actually a horse.

It's not so clear what this graceful beast might be. Image
The last picture was of a cow.

What about this monster? Its jaws can crush a steel car. Image
That metal-breaker was a hippopotamus.

This pack-hunting animal has a killer stare and wields a set of five switchblade claws on its forefeet. What might it be? Image
That was the house cat.

This one's a bit more mysterious, and clearly adapted to be a stealthy predator, right? Image
If you guessed that was a spider monkey, kudos to you. Future paleontologists might consider it an arboreal variation on humans, its cursorial relatives.

What of this one? It's not clear to future paleontologists if it's quadrupedal or bipedal. Image
That's the toad, which paleontologists might consider to be a long-legged forest ambler.

Any idea what this one is? Without preserved feathers, guessing might be hard! Image
If you guessed "Vulture", you're correct. But you probably didn't guess that!

You almost certainly won't guess this one. Image
That was a species of casque-headed hornbill, and paleontologists might suspect they use the casque for mating rituals. But we don't even know what they do with them in many cases today!

How's about this twofer? Note predator and prey: Image
If you guessed the "Swan" and the "Tadpole" (mistakenly believed to be a form of fish), then you were right.

What about this cute little predator? Image
That was an iguana, and due to fur being found on other small vertebrates like rats, it's assumed to have fur too.

Who's this courser? Image
That was a rabbit, but we wouldn't know it because posture is poorly preserved in fossils!

Now this one is simultaneously reassuring and disheartening. What might it be? Image
That's a python, and it might be assumed to have feet to support its body, much like the lizards its skeleton resembles. After all, we only have fragmentary remains!

Who's this guy? Image
That's a manatee. Remember, habitats change. A sea creature might be found in what's now a forested mountain. We might also only have remains like skulls.

This guy has a balloon-like facial sac. What might he be? Image
That's a bull elephant, and because no other animals have long, muscular appendages, he ends up with a face sac instead of his well-known trunk.

Time to dive underwater.

This one might seem to be a dolphin, but think outside the box. Image
It's a sperm whale, incorrectly believed to be a hunter of large pray. You know, like sharks.

What's this kelp forest stalker? Image
Why that's a bowhead whale of course! And as we know from its skeleton's extensible jaws, it must prey on animals as large as itself!

Going back to the land, who are we looking at now? Image
Because of its complicated nasal sinuses, the baboon might be assumed to have had venom glands and to have been a coursing hunter!

These guys have curved foot claws, sometimes serrated bills, and wings shorter than their legs. They must be vampiric! Image
But that's not the case, it's just an odd animal. It's a hummingbird, the only animal in its strange niche, and thus a prime candidate for misinterpretation!

Finally, who the hell is this? Image
That might be the first example of shrink wrapping and distorting the fossil record: the animal proposed to be pre-flood man, or Homo diluvii by Johann Jakob Scheuchzer in 1726

But though he thought he had evidence for the flood, he was describing the fossil of a salamander!Image
How we think about ancient animals is probably distorted by a tendency to shrink wrap their depictions and a desire to find function in form.

But much of what we observe in animals today, we still can't explain. Skin also drags, and feathers and fur abound (but not universally).
If you want to see more on this subject, I recommend the whole book, which contains many more illustrations and details for all of them.

Get it here: amazon.com/All-Yesterdays…
And if you're interested in speculation about possible futures, C.M. Koseman's All Tomorrows is spectacular. You can see it summarized on YouTube, here:
Koseman isn't the only person to have illustrated this issue either.

This opossum, for example, comes from the HowStuffWorks Tumblr:

Here's more: howstuffworks.tumblr.com/post/512612262…
imgur.com/a/BEz4r
Image
There is an error in describing sperm whales in the thread:

The issue is more that they would probably be thought of as behaving like sharks in the far future, but they're actually pretty social and frequently team players.
The artist for All Yesterdays and All Tomorrows has a Twitter account:

The opossum artist also has an account:

And the artist behind the inflated T-rex is apparently the creator of One Punch Man:
twitter.com/NixIllustration
twitter.com/NEBU_KURO

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

May 2
There's a myth that the Islamic world has figured out fertility, but it has not.

They show the same declining fertility rates that other places have. Barring Iraq, the Middle East has lower fertility rates than Israel now. Image
Exceptions: Yemen and maybe Palestine, both of which have terrible data, so their comparative situation is unclear.

But, two things on that:

Firstly, Jewish fertility is ahead of Arab fertility in Israel. Image
Secondly, Israeli fertility might be just ahead or slightly behind Palestinian fertility, depending on the source.

Israeli growth is definitely ahead of Palestinian growth due to immigration, Palestinian emigration, and Palestinian mortality.Image
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May 2
Relationships between class and fertility and IQ and fertility used to routinely be negative in the not-so-distant past.

But across the developed world, they're increasingly positive, albeit only slightly. In this Swedish birth cohort (1951-67), the transition came early: Image
In this example, there's also some interesting confounding: between families, IQ isn't monotonically associated with fertility, but within families, it is.

Something seems to suppress the IQ-fertility relationship between families!

See also:
Sweden's positive IQ-fertility gradient (which, above, is just for males, since it's draftee data), has been around for quite a while (but has varied, too), whereas in countries like France, Japan, and the U.S., the gradient shift towards being slightly positive is more recent. Image
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May 2
One of the reasons people are so pessimistic about fertility policy is because they misjudge the counterfactual🧵

Consider this. We have a country with a given fertility level: Image
The country intervenes with some fertility policy, and the fertility rate continues to fall.

The program is therefore dubbed a failure. Oh no! Image
But, had the program never been implemented, the fertility rate would have fallen much more.

This is the counterfactual, and it is roundly ignored in favor of the pessimistic conclusion that fertility policy simply does not work. Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 30
This is a really strong claim based on really scant evidence.

Add in a control for family history or use Bonferroni instead of Benjamini-Hochberg and 5-aminovaleric acid betaine goes nonsignificant. Add in polygenic risk scores too and Cyclo(Leu-Pro) goes nonsignificant.
Using a small number of the total tests (multiple comparison correction was too lax), the model with both metabolites in it alone led to p-values of 0.3512 for 5-AVAB and 0.0188 for Cyclo(Leu-Pro) and that's from a model without family history or genetic risk.
I don't see any good reason why, but the authors preferred to make inferences from a model missing important controls they had available

But to make matters worse, 5-AVAB wasn't measured super well, and the analyses with cLP were not quantitative at all, as most data was missing
Read 7 tweets
Apr 29
The Mafia is undoubtedly cool.

It makes for good TV and good movies, and some even argue that it makes for economic growth, that it 'greases the wheels'.

But I've never believed this theory, and I think there's considerable evidence against it🧵 Image
Italy is the homeland of the Mafia, and though they've tried everything to get rid of them, they're still around.

Check this date out: They're still doing anti-Mafia stings in 2025!Image
We are quite literally approaching 100 years of the Italian state engaging in mass campaigns to contain and crush the Mafia.

In June of 1924, Mussolini tasked Cesare Mori with eradicating them, and though he did a lot and thought he'd win, he did not.

Cent'Anni! Image
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Apr 25
Why have autism rates risen over time?🧵

I have just put out an article dealing with numerous misconceptions about this topic, and a complete explanation of why autism diagnoses have become more common.

It starts with acknowledging that more kids are diagnosed than in the past: Image
But this is misleading for a few reasons.

One has to do with how this data was sourced. We didn't have a DSM with autism in it before 1980, so all the oldest people in this cohort were diagnosed as adults.

Adults are underdiagnosed. Go out of your way to diagnose? Same rates.Image
So something is off about this graph.

A major issue is that the older diagnoses here were done under a more arbitrary criteria: Autism has only been a described thing since Kanner's studies in 1943 and mass diagnosis kicked off in 1980.

Before 1980, diagnosis was often crazy:Image
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