Thread by @WarintheFuture

The increasing use of drone v drone warfare in #Ukraine has been a trend long in development. Earlier, we have seen aerial drones take out other aerial drones, as well as recover downed enemy drones. 1/15 🧵🇺🇦

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1774074927437475862

2/ With the increasing deployment of uncrewed ground combat vehicles, there will be more and UAV v UGV combat similar to that in the video as well as UGV v UGV. At this point in their development, however, UGV remain slow and vulnerable to attack by humans and UAV.

3/ But, the battlefield adaptation cycle will slowly change this. Not only will individual UGV increasingly have lower visual and electronic signatures, they will be used in larger numbers. The pace of change in the relevant technologies makes this almost inevitable.

4/ For Russia, the use of large numbers of UGV might complement their ‘meat tactics’ with disposable troops. As @sambendett has reported on recently, Russia is deploying UGV in greater numbers.

5/ For Ukraine, UGV possibly offers part of a solution to their personnel shortages. UGV are already being used for several different mission sets. It is not a full solution for shortage of people however. Some form of mobilization will still be necessary. defensenews.com/global/europe/…

6/ There is every reason to believe me might see greater autonomous collaboration between UAV and UGV. I can imagine both UGV and UAVs being used as ‘motherships’ for the other in different battlefield mission sets.

7/ This reinforces the need for rapid changes to ground force tactics & doctrine. The current prevalence of the defence over offence will only be sustained until we develop new era combined arms, air-land tactics that use human-machine teaming as the foundation, not an add-on.

8/ Deeper institutional changes will also be needed. All training for military personnel is currently focused on ‘using’ technology. Training culture needs to embrace ‘partnering with’ technology. This is a big shift for orgs that have been human-centric for 1000s of years.

9/ And it will drive changes in military planning, logistics, procurement and leadership models. All of this is necessary to rebuild offensive capacity, which in turn, is a key part of conventional deterrent frameworks.

10/ While this imperative is most urgent for Ukraine right now, it is also driving change (at different speeds) in other military institutions. The pace of change in the technology involved means however that militaries will need more rapid learning and adaptation approaches.

11/ This includes better tactical learning and adaptation, as well as the strategic adaptation necessary to change institutions, training & education, force design and procurement.

12/ LtGen (retired) Clint Hinote and I recently published a report on this topic, which you can read here. scsp.ai/wp-content/upl…

13/ I also recommend following the work of @sambendett @elisabethmalom1 and @RikeFranke on this subject.

14/ Finally, I wrote a piece at Futura Doctrina on this topic just a short while ago, which is available here:
mickryan.substack.com/p/rise-of-the-…

15/ As witnessed in Ukraine, drone v drone is a rapidly evolving field of military affairs. For #Ukraine, Russia, and other military institutions around the world, different mindsets and organisations are needed. As Richard Simpkin once wrote, the race will go to the swift. End.